Lille v Le Havre match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 54%Lille win
- 26%Draw
- 20%Le Havre win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
LilleLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
Le HavreLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Lille won 36 of 49 matches in which they scored first, since 18 Oct 2024.
- Le Havre won 12 of 21 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Lille won 4 of the last 6 meetings.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Lille's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
6 meetings: Lille 4, draws 1, Le Havre 1
Goals: Lille 11, Le Havre 3
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2026 | Lille v Le Havre | 1–1 |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Le Havre v Lille | 0–1 |
| 8 Feb 2025 | Lille v Le Havre | 1–2 |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Le Havre v Lille | 0–3 |
| 17 Feb 2024 | Lille v Le Havre | 3–0 |
| 1 Oct 2023 | Le Havre v Lille | 0–2 |
Home and away
LilleLille at home
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- WonEstac Troyes13 Sep 20262–0
- LostReal BetisUEFA Champions League8 Sep 20262–3
- DrawnParis Saint Germain28 Aug 20262–2
- LostAuxerre17 May 20260–2
- DrawnLe Havre3 May 20261–1
Lille: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
Le HavreLe Havre away
Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost
- LostToulouse19 Sep 20262–3
- DrawnLyon29 Aug 20261–1
- WonLorient17 May 20262–0
- DrawnLille3 May 20261–1
- DrawnAngers18 Apr 20261–1
Le Havre: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 2 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Lille- Last match
- 20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Nice · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Arsenal · UEFA Champions League
Le Havre- Last match
- 21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Toulouse · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 8 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Auxerre · Ligue 1
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Lille
Since 18 Oct 2024
| Score | Lille | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 36 won, 9 drawn, 4 lost in 49 matches | 628 won, 164 drawn, 109 lost in 901 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 5 drawn, 22 lost in 33 matches | 109 won, 164 drawn, 628 lost in 901 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 20 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost in 29 matches | 310 won, 83 drawn, 40 lost in 433 matches |
| Level at half-time | 14 won, 10 drawn, 7 lost in 31 matches | 249 won, 276 drawn, 249 lost in 774 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 15 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches | 309 won, 82 drawn, 28 lost in 419 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 16 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 32 matches | 173 won, 280 drawn, 173 lost in 626 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 17 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches | 312 won, 79 drawn, 21 lost in 412 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 14 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 25 matches | 139 won, 294 drawn, 139 lost in 572 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 21 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches | 312 won, 66 drawn, 8 lost in 386 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 8 won, 11 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches | 116 won, 330 drawn, 116 lost in 562 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 31 won, 17 drawn, 18 lost in 66 matches | 507 won, 352 drawn, 507 lost in 1366 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 16 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches | 264 won, 67 drawn, 58 lost in 389 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 22 won, 10 drawn, 13 lost in 45 matches | 342 won, 314 drawn, 342 lost in 998 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Lille | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 45 scored, 16 conceded (86) | 643 scored, 643 conceded (1940) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 17 scored, 8 conceded (34) | 270 scored, 219 conceded (697) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 15 scored, 3 conceded (24) | 154 scored, 154 conceded (546) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 5 conceded (28) | 219 scored, 270 conceded (697) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 37 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 13(league sides: 1,048 times, within 15 minutes 158, by full time 458)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Le Havre
Since 20 Oct 2024
| Score | Le Havre | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 12 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches | 628 won, 164 drawn, 109 lost in 901 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 7 drawn, 29 lost in 39 matches | 109 won, 164 drawn, 628 lost in 901 matches |
| Level at half-time | 8 won, 14 drawn, 11 lost in 33 matches | 249 won, 276 drawn, 249 lost in 774 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 16 drawn, 5 lost in 27 matches | 173 won, 280 drawn, 173 lost in 626 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 2 won, 3 drawn, 16 lost in 21 matches | 28 won, 82 drawn, 309 lost in 419 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 26 matches | 139 won, 294 drawn, 139 lost in 572 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches | 116 won, 330 drawn, 116 lost in 562 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 10 won, 14 drawn, 22 lost in 46 matches | 507 won, 352 drawn, 507 lost in 1366 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 7 won, 12 drawn, 15 lost in 34 matches | 342 won, 314 drawn, 342 lost in 998 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 2 won, 5 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches | 58 won, 67 drawn, 264 lost in 389 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Le Havre | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 15 scored, 24 conceded (66) | 643 scored, 643 conceded (1940) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 5 conceded (22) | 154 scored, 154 conceded (546) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 11 conceded (29) | 219 scored, 270 conceded (697) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 15(league sides: 1,048 times, within 15 minutes 158, by full time 458)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Lille | Le Havre | |
|---|---|---|
| 66Since 18 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 66Since 20 Oct 2024 |
| 104.48 | xG for | 80.36 |
| 99 | Goals scored | 69 |
| 79.82 | xG against | 111.64 |
| 69 | Goals conceded | 107 |
Lille
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Nice | 1.58 | 1.50 | 1–2 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Estac Troyes | 1.65 | 0.38 | 2–0 |
| 3 Sep 2026 | at Toulouse | 1.21 | 3.46 | 1–0 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | v Paris Saint Germain | 1.27 | 1.44 | 2–2 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Angers | 1.24 | 1.99 | 2–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Auxerre | 1.72 | 0.54 | 0–2 |
| 10 May 2026 | at Monaco | 0.39 | 0.37 | 1–0 |
| 3 May 2026 | v Le Havre | 1.55 | 0.14 | 1–1 |
| 26 Apr 2026 | at Paris FC | 1.71 | 1.06 | 1–0 |
| 18 Apr 2026 | v Nice | 0.54 | 0.19 | 0–0 |
Le Havre
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Toulouse | 2.34 | 1.95 | 2–3 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Angers | 1.31 | 0.59 | 0–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Stade Brestois 29 | 2.02 | 2.37 | 1–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Lyon | 0.69 | 1.75 | 1–1 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Monaco | 0.60 | 1.39 | 0–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Lorient | 1.25 | 1.30 | 2–0 |
| 10 May 2026 | v Marseille | 1.14 | 1.21 | 0–1 |
| 3 May 2026 | at Lille | 0.14 | 1.55 | 1–1 |
| 26 Apr 2026 | v Metz | 1.99 | 1.58 | 4–4 |
| 18 Apr 2026 | at Angers | 1.45 | 1.07 | 1–1 |
This league season
Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Lille | Le Havre | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of 5 | Matches with xG | 5 of 5 |
| 10 | Points in those matches | 2 |
| 6.30 | xPts | 6.16 |
| 6.95 | xG for | 6.96 |
| 8.77 | xG against | 8.05 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Lille and Le Havre
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 10 Oct 2026, 15:12 BST · not changed since
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