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Ligue 1
Lille
1–1Finished
Stade Brestois 29
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 19:45 BSTMatchday 7 · Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille

Lille v Stade Brestois 29 match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 54%Lille win
  • 25%Draw
  • 21%Stade Brestois 29 win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

LilleLille

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Lille won 37 of 50 matches in which they scored first, since 18 Oct 2024.
  • Stade Brestois 29 won 25 of 38 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Lille won 3 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Under 2.5 goals in 8 of Lille's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Lille 3, draws 5, Stade Brestois 29 2

Goals: Lille 12, Stade Brestois 29 12

DateMatchScore
14 Feb 2026Lille v Stade Brestois 291–1
17 Aug 2025Stade Brestois 29 v Lille3–3
10 May 2025Stade Brestois 29 v Lille2–0
6 Dec 2024Lille v Stade Brestois 293–1
17 Mar 2024Stade Brestois 29 v Lille1–1
22 Oct 2023Lille v Stade Brestois 291–0
24 Feb 2023Lille v Stade Brestois 292–1
11 Jan 2023Stade Brestois 29 v Lille0–0
22 Jan 2022Stade Brestois 29 v Lille2–0
23 Oct 2021Lille v Stade Brestois 291–1

Home and away

Lille

Lille at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonLe Havre10 Oct 20261–0
  • WonEstac Troyes13 Sep 20262–0
  • LostReal BetisUEFA Champions League8 Sep 20262–3
  • DrawnParis Saint Germain28 Aug 20262–2
  • LostAuxerre17 May 20260–2

Lille: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 7 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
2 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10
Stade Brestois 29

Stade Brestois 29 away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostAuxerre20 Sep 20261–2
  • WonLe Havre5 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnLe Mans22 Aug 20262–2
  • LostParis Saint Germain10 May 20260–1
  • LostParis FC3 May 20260–4

Stade Brestois 29: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
8 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Lille
Last match
4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Arsenal · UEFA Champions League
Next match
4 days after21 Oct 2026 · v Galatasaray · UEFA Champions League
Stade Brestois 29
Last match
7 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Angers · Ligue 1
Next match
6 days after23 Oct 2026 · v Nice · Ligue 1

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Lille

Since 18 Oct 2024

ScoreLilleLeague sides
Scored first37 won, 9 drawn, 4 lost in 50 matches635 won, 165 drawn, 111 lost in 911 matches
Conceded first6 won, 5 drawn, 23 lost in 34 matches111 won, 165 drawn, 635 lost in 911 matches
1 goal up at half-time21 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost in 30 matches312 won, 83 drawn, 41 lost in 436 matches
Level at half-time14 won, 10 drawn, 8 lost in 32 matches254 won, 276 drawn, 254 lost in 784 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches312 won, 82 drawn, 29 lost in 423 matches
Level after 60 minutes16 won, 10 drawn, 7 lost in 33 matches176 won, 282 drawn, 176 lost in 634 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes18 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches316 won, 79 drawn, 22 lost in 417 matches
Level after 70 minutes14 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 25 matches140 won, 296 drawn, 140 lost in 576 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes22 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 27 matches316 won, 66 drawn, 8 lost in 390 matches
Level after 80 minutes8 won, 11 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches118 won, 332 drawn, 118 lost in 568 matches
Level after 15 minutes31 won, 17 drawn, 19 lost in 67 matches513 won, 354 drawn, 513 lost in 1380 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes17 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 26 matches266 won, 68 drawn, 59 lost in 393 matches
Level after 30 minutes22 won, 10 drawn, 14 lost in 46 matches347 won, 314 drawn, 347 lost in 1008 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLilleLeague sides
All matches45 scored, 16 conceded (88)651 scored, 651 conceded (1960)
When leading after 75 minutes17 scored, 8 conceded (35)274 scored, 222 conceded (705)
When level after 75 minutes15 scored, 3 conceded (24)155 scored, 155 conceded (550)
When trailing after 75 minutes13 scored, 5 conceded (29)222 scored, 274 conceded (705)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 38 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 13(league sides: 1,060 times, within 15 minutes 160, by full time 463)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Stade Brestois 29

Since 19 Oct 2024

ScoreStade Brestois 29League sides
Scored first25 won, 7 drawn, 6 lost in 38 matches635 won, 165 drawn, 111 lost in 911 matches
Conceded first1 won, 6 drawn, 26 lost in 33 matches111 won, 165 drawn, 635 lost in 911 matches
1 goal up at half-time16 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches312 won, 83 drawn, 41 lost in 436 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches312 won, 82 drawn, 29 lost in 423 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes15 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches316 won, 79 drawn, 22 lost in 417 matches
Level after 15 minutes16 won, 10 drawn, 19 lost in 45 matches513 won, 354 drawn, 513 lost in 1380 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 9 drawn, 9 lost in 27 matches347 won, 314 drawn, 347 lost in 1008 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes1 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 22 matches59 won, 68 drawn, 266 lost in 393 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreStade Brestois 29League sides
All matches18 scored, 32 conceded (75)651 scored, 651 conceded (1960)
When leading after 75 minutes10 scored, 9 conceded (27)274 scored, 222 conceded (705)
When trailing after 75 minutes5 scored, 17 conceded (31)222 scored, 274 conceded (705)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 16(league sides: 1,060 times, within 15 minutes 160, by full time 463)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

LilleStade Brestois 29
67Since 18 Oct 2024Matches with xG67Since 19 Oct 2024
105.74xG for96.49
100Goals scored97
81.10xG against101.99
69Goals conceded110

Lille

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Lille: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Le Havre1.261.281–0
20 Sep 2026at Nice1.581.501–2
13 Sep 2026v Estac Troyes1.650.382–0
3 Sep 2026at Toulouse1.213.461–0
28 Aug 2026v Paris Saint Germain1.271.442–2
23 Aug 2026at Angers1.241.992–0
17 May 2026v Auxerre1.720.540–2
10 May 2026at Monaco0.390.371–0
3 May 2026v Le Havre1.550.141–1
26 Apr 2026at Paris FC1.711.061–0

Stade Brestois 29

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Stade Brestois 29: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Angers3.821.395–1
20 Sep 2026at Auxerre0.340.961–2
13 Sep 2026v Paris Saint Germain1.241.160–1
5 Sep 2026at Le Havre2.372.022–1
29 Aug 2026v Toulouse3.041.142–2
22 Aug 2026at Le Mans2.720.672–2
17 May 2026v Angers1.570.681–1
13 May 2026v Strasbourg3.062.021–2
10 May 2026at Paris Saint Germain0.171.490–1
3 May 2026at Paris FC0.791.860–4

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

LilleStade Brestois 29
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
13Points in those matches8
7.65xPts11.23
8.21xG for13.53
10.05xG against7.34

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Lille and Stade Brestois 29

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • LilleLille
    Ruled out
    H. Igamane (Knee Injury) · T. Santos (Knee Injury) · A. Ueda (Foot Injury)
  • Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
    Ruled out
    B. Chardonnet (Calf Injury) · N. Edjouma (Loan agreement) · R. Le Guen (Broken Leg) · G. Versini (Leg Injury)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 19:12 BST · not changed since

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