LEDGER
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Championship
Lincoln
1–3Finished
Birmingham
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 12:30 GMTMatchday 13 · Sincil Bank, Lincoln

Lincoln v Birmingham match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives Lincoln a 39% chance to win at home, with Birmingham at 33% and a draw at 28%. Expected goals stand at 1.33 for Lincoln and 1.23 for Birmingham (2.56 total, a gap of 0.1 in Lincoln's favour). Birmingham won both previous meetings this season; Lincoln have won once in five matches.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 39%Lincoln win
  • 28%Draw
  • 33%Birmingham win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

LincolnLincoln

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

  1. won4–1v Burnley
  2. drew2–2at Millwall
  3. lost0–6v West Ham
  4. lost0–3at Sheffield Utd
  5. lost1–2v Swansea
BirminghamBirmingham

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

  1. lost0–1at Cardiff
  2. won3–0v QPR
  3. won4–0v Preston
  4. won1–0at West Brom
  5. drew2–2v Middlesbrough

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 326 of 417.
  • Birmingham won 20 of 27 matches in which they scored first, since 8 Aug 2025.
  • Birmingham won 3 of the last 3 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Lincoln's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

3 meetings: Lincoln 0, draws 0, Birmingham 3

Goals: Lincoln 2, Birmingham 6

DateMatchScore
8 Mar 2025Birmingham v LincolnLeague One1–0
11 Jan 2025Birmingham v LincolnFA Cup2–1
19 Oct 2024Lincoln v BirminghamLeague One1–3

Home and away

Lincoln

Lincoln at home

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonBurnley24 Oct 20264–1
  • LostWest Ham14 Oct 20260–6
  • LostSwansea19 Sep 20261–2
  • DrawnSouthampton5 Sep 20261–1
  • DrawnBlackburn1 Sep 20260–0

Lincoln: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Birmingham

Birmingham away

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostCardiff24 Oct 20260–1
  • WonWest Brom10 Oct 20261–0
  • WonDerby12 Sep 20262–1
  • LostNorwich9 Sep 20261–2
  • WonWrexham28 Aug 20262–1

Birmingham: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
9 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Lincoln
Last match
7 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Burnley · Championship
Next match
3 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Watford · Championship
Birmingham
Last match
7 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Cardiff · Championship
Next match
3 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Millwall · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 8 Aug 2025. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Birmingham

ScoreBirminghamLeague sides
Scored first20 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 27 matches1122 won, 350 drawn, 218 lost in 1690 matches
Conceded first2 won, 10 drawn, 17 lost in 29 matches218 won, 350 drawn, 1122 lost in 1690 matches
Level after 15 minutes14 won, 13 drawn, 12 lost in 39 matches928 won, 744 drawn, 928 lost in 2600 matches
Level after 30 minutes11 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 30 matches661 won, 636 drawn, 661 lost in 1958 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBirminghamLeague sides
All matches14 scored, 9 conceded (58)1050 scored, 1050 conceded (3632)
When leading after 75 minutes3 scored, 3 conceded (21)350 scored, 377 conceded (1266)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 4 conceded (21)377 scored, 350 conceded (1266)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 16(league sides: 1,903 times, within 15 minutes 325, by full time 842)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 8 Aug 2025

LincolnBirmingham
—Matches with xG58
—xG for83.13
—Goals scored77
—xG against64.42
—Goals conceded68

Birmingham

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Birmingham: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026at Cardiff0.912.400–1
17 Oct 2026v QPR1.341.173–0
13 Oct 2026v Preston2.240.494–0
10 Oct 2026at West Brom2.551.051–0
19 Sep 2026v Middlesbrough1.232.142–2
12 Sep 2026at Derby3.171.112–1
9 Sep 2026at Norwich1.631.011–2
6 Sep 2026v Wolves1.392.472–2
1 Sep 2026v Southampton1.551.021–1
28 Aug 2026at Wrexham1.621.422–1

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

LincolnBirmingham
12 of 12Matches with xG12 of 12
15Points in those matches20
16.12xPts19.41
15.71xG for20.38
17.52xG against16.00

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Lincoln and Birmingham

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • LincolnLincoln
    Ruled out
    T. Darikwa (Knee Injury) · M. Melia (Thigh Injury) · E. Wheatley (Inactive)
  • BirminghamBirmingham
    Ruled out
    M. Leonard (Achilles Tendon Injury) · Paik Seung-Ho (Health problems)
    Doubtful
    A. Priske (Health problems)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 11:27 GMT · not changed since

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