Lincoln v Burnley match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 36%Lincoln win
- 28%Draw
- 36%Burnley win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
LincolnLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
BurnleyLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
Head-to-head
Head-to-head data was not available for this match.
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Lincoln won 40 of 52 matches in which they scored first, since 1 Mar 2025.
- Burnley won 24 of 36 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
- Lincoln without a win in their last 5 home games.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Lincoln's last 10 home league games.
Home and away
LincolnLincoln at home
Last 5: 0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost
- LostWest Ham14 Oct 20260–6
- LostSwansea19 Sep 20261–2
- DrawnSouthampton5 Sep 20261–1
- DrawnBlackburn1 Sep 20260–0
- LostPortsmouth22 Aug 20261–3
Lincoln: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 16 scored, 17 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
BurnleyBurnley away
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- WonWatford10 Oct 20264–0
- LostSwansea12 Sep 20261–3
- DrawnWrexham8 Sep 20261–1
- LostNorwich29 Aug 20261–4
- DrawnBradfordLeague Cup26 Aug 20260–0 PEN
Burnley: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 24 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Lincoln- Last match
- 7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Millwall · Championship
- Next match
- 7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Birmingham · Championship
Burnley- Last match
- 8 days before16 Oct 2026 · v Wolves · Championship
- Next match
- 7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Portsmouth · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Lincoln
Since 1 Mar 2025
| Score | Lincoln | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 40 won, 8 drawn, 4 lost in 52 matches | 1116 won, 348 drawn, 215 lost in 1679 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 5 drawn, 13 lost in 21 matches | 215 won, 348 drawn, 1116 lost in 1679 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 25 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost in 34 matches | 508 won, 164 drawn, 95 lost in 767 matches |
| Level at half-time | 12 won, 6 drawn, 5 lost in 23 matches | 460 won, 578 drawn, 460 lost in 1498 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 22 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 29 matches | 539 won, 170 drawn, 65 lost in 774 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 21 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 28 matches | 565 won, 151 drawn, 45 lost in 761 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 19 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches | 645 won, 119 drawn, 17 lost in 781 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 31 won, 8 drawn, 12 lost in 51 matches | 923 won, 738 drawn, 923 lost in 2584 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 19 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 26 matches | 437 won, 147 drawn, 107 lost in 691 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 21 won, 6 drawn, 10 lost in 37 matches | 656 won, 630 drawn, 656 lost in 1942 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Lincoln | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 27 scored, 23 conceded (76) | 1042 scored, 1042 conceded (3608) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 15 scored, 13 conceded (44) | 347 scored, 375 conceded (1257) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 23 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 10(league sides: 1,891 times, within 15 minutes 323, by full time 838)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Burnley
Since 26 Oct 2024
| Score | Burnley | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 24 won, 5 drawn, 7 lost in 36 matches | 1116 won, 348 drawn, 215 lost in 1679 matches |
| Conceded first | 5 won, 10 drawn, 26 lost in 41 matches | 215 won, 348 drawn, 1116 lost in 1679 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 18 drawn, 9 lost in 37 matches | 460 won, 578 drawn, 460 lost in 1498 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 15 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches | 539 won, 170 drawn, 65 lost in 774 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 4 won, 21 drawn, 7 lost in 32 matches | 342 won, 582 drawn, 342 lost in 1266 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 4 won, 22 drawn, 8 lost in 34 matches | 277 won, 630 drawn, 277 lost in 1184 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 3 won, 21 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches | 174 won, 702 drawn, 174 lost in 1050 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 16 won, 20 drawn, 20 lost in 56 matches | 923 won, 738 drawn, 923 lost in 2584 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 10 won, 19 drawn, 16 lost in 45 matches | 656 won, 630 drawn, 656 lost in 1942 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 3 won, 5 drawn, 12 lost in 20 matches | 107 won, 147 drawn, 437 lost in 691 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Burnley | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 23 scored, 25 conceded (89) | 1042 scored, 1042 conceded (3608) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 7 conceded (28) | 347 scored, 375 conceded (1257) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 10 conceded (32) | 320 scored, 320 conceded (1094) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 8 conceded (29) | 375 scored, 347 conceded (1257) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 22(league sides: 1,891 times, within 15 minutes 323, by full time 838)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 26 Oct 2024
| Lincoln | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| — | Matches with xG | 84 |
| — | xG for | 93.35 |
| — | Goals scored | 106 |
| — | xG against | 121.18 |
| — | Goals conceded | 107 |
Burnley
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026 | v Wolves | 1.07 | 2.02 | 1–2 |
| 13 Oct 2026 | v Charlton | 1.08 | 2.13 | 2–2 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Watford | 1.94 | 0.64 | 4–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Derby | 0.45 | 1.75 | 1–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Swansea | 1.73 | 2.63 | 1–3 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | at Wrexham | 1.50 | 1.28 | 1–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Bristol City | 0.26 | 1.06 | 1–2 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | v Middlesbrough | 0.64 | 1.22 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Norwich | 1.38 | 2.30 | 1–4 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at West Brom | 1.18 | 1.63 | 1–3 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Lincoln | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 of 11 | Matches with xG | 11 of 11 |
| 12 | Points in those matches | 8 |
| 14.95 | xPts | 12.16 |
| 13.77 | xG for | 13.56 |
| 15.15 | xG against | 17.99 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Lincoln and Burnley
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- T. Darikwa (Knee Injury) · F. Draper (Yellow Cards) · T. Hamer (Red Card) · M. Melia (Thigh Injury) · E. Wheatley (Inactive)
- Ruled out
- E. Agyei (Lacking Match Fitness) · A. Ahmedhodzic (Knock) · Z. Amdouni (Ankle Injury) · A. Barnes (Muscle Injury) · J. Beyer (Hamstring Injury) · J. Bruun Larsen (Injury) · B. Humphreys (Muscle Injury) · H. Mejbri (Hamstring Injury) · M. Obafemi (Inactive) · A. Ramsey (Hamstring Injury) · S. Sambo (Inactive) · M. Tresor Ndayishimiye (Inactive) · J. Vardy (Injury)
- Doubtful
- J. Banel (Muscle Injury) · J. Cullen (Knee Injury)
Published 24 Oct 2026, 13:58 BST · not changed since
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