Lincoln v West Ham match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Wed 14 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Lincoln are slight favourites to win at home with a 53% chance, though this is a competitive match with a 25% draw probability. The model expects around 2.92 goals and suggests Lincoln will have superior expected goals (0.7 gap).
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 53%Lincoln win
- 25%Draw
- 22%West Ham win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
LincolnLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
West HamLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 321 of 411.
- West Ham won 21 of 35 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- West Ham unbeaten in their last 5 away games.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Lincoln's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
1 meeting: Lincoln 0, draws 0, West Ham 1
Goals: Lincoln 0, West Ham 1
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2023 | Lincoln v West HamLeague Cup | 0–1 |
Home and away
LincolnLincoln at home
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- LostSwansea19 Sep 20261–2
- DrawnSouthampton5 Sep 20261–1
- DrawnBlackburn1 Sep 20260–0
- LostPortsmouth22 Aug 20261–3
- WonWycombeLeague One25 Apr 20264–3
Lincoln: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 20 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
West HamWest Ham away
Last 5: 2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost
- DrawnMillwall19 Sep 20262–2
- WonBolton8 Sep 20263–2
- DrawnWatford29 Aug 20261–1
- WonSouthamptonLeague Cup25 Aug 20264–1
- DrawnBurnley16 Aug 20262–2
West Ham: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 20 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Lincoln- Last match
- 4 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Sheffield Utd · Championship
- Next match
- 3 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Millwall · Championship
West Ham- Last match
- 5 days before9 Oct 2026 · v QPR · Championship
- Next match
- 3 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Swansea · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
West Ham
| Score | West Ham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 21 won, 8 drawn, 6 lost in 35 matches | 1104 won, 345 drawn, 213 lost in 1662 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 10 drawn, 28 lost in 40 matches | 213 won, 345 drawn, 1104 lost in 1662 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches | 455 won, 574 drawn, 455 lost in 1484 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 10 drawn, 8 lost in 24 matches | 341 won, 578 drawn, 341 lost in 1260 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 26 matches | 275 won, 626 drawn, 275 lost in 1176 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 2 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 21 matches | 172 won, 698 drawn, 172 lost in 1042 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 16 won, 16 drawn, 18 lost in 50 matches | 912 won, 732 drawn, 912 lost in 2556 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 13 won, 14 drawn, 11 lost in 38 matches | 648 won, 626 drawn, 648 lost in 1922 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 2 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches | 105 won, 145 drawn, 434 lost in 684 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | West Ham | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 26 scored, 30 conceded (78) | 1032 scored, 1032 conceded (3572) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 11 conceded (26) | 342 scored, 372 conceded (1243) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 9 conceded (22) | 318 scored, 318 conceded (1086) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 10 conceded (30) | 372 scored, 342 conceded (1243) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 16(league sides: 1,872 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 831)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Lincoln | West Ham | |
|---|---|---|
| — | Matches with xG | 78 |
| — | xG for | 102.78 |
| — | Goals scored | 105 |
| — | xG against | 120.70 |
| — | Goals conceded | 128 |
West Ham
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | v QPR | 1.44 | 1.27 | 1–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Millwall | 1.87 | 2.68 | 2–2 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | v Wrexham | 2.96 | 0.44 | 6–0 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | at Bolton | 2.22 | 1.56 | 3–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Derby | 3.79 | 0.11 | 3–0 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | v Wolves | 2.05 | 0.94 | 4–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Watford | 0.89 | 1.60 | 1–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Charlton | 2.84 | 0.62 | 1–2 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | at Burnley | 1.33 | 2.33 | 2–2 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Leeds | 2.61 | 1.59 | 3–0 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Lincoln | West Ham | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 11 | Points in those matches | 16 |
| 14.17 | xPts | 16.30 |
| 12.63 | xG for | 19.39 |
| 10.05 | xG against | 11.55 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Lincoln and West Ham
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- T. Darikwa (Knee Injury) · M. Melia (Thigh Injury)
- Ruled out
- K. Lamadrid (Injury)
Published 14 Oct 2026, 18:57 BST · not changed since
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