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Premier League
Liverpool
2–0Finished
Brighton
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 14:00 GMTMatchday 8 · Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool v Brighton match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives Liverpool a 41% chance of winning at home, with Brighton's 33% win probability boosted by their current five-game winning streak. Both sides face substantial injury lists that could shape the match, and expected goals total 3.01.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 41%Liverpool win
  • 26%Draw
  • 33%Brighton win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

LiverpoolLiverpool

Last 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat

BrightonBrighton

Last 5: 5 wins, no draws, no defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 189 of 268.
  • Liverpool won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Liverpool's last 10 home league games.
  • Not both teams scored in 7 of Brighton's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Liverpool 5, draws 1, Brighton 4

Goals: Liverpool 18, Brighton 16

DateMatchScore
21 Mar 2026Brighton v Liverpool2–1
14 Feb 2026Liverpool v BrightonFA Cup3–0
13 Dec 2025Liverpool v Brighton2–0
19 May 2025Brighton v Liverpool3–2
2 Nov 2024Liverpool v Brighton2–1
30 Oct 2024Brighton v LiverpoolLeague Cup2–3
31 Mar 2024Liverpool v Brighton2–1
8 Oct 2023Brighton v Liverpool2–2
29 Jan 2023Brighton v LiverpoolFA Cup2–1
14 Jan 2023Brighton v Liverpool3–0

Home and away

Liverpool

Liverpool at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonVillarrealUEFA Champions League20 Oct 20264–3
  • LostManchester City11 Oct 20260–3
  • WonTottenhamLeague Cup15 Sep 20263–1
  • DrawnFulham12 Sep 20260–0
  • WonAtletico MadridUEFA Champions League9 Sep 20262–1

Liverpool: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Brighton

Brighton away

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnFK JablonecUEFA Europa Conference League22 Oct 20260–0
  • WonSunderland10 Oct 20262–0
  • WonManchester UnitedLeague Cup16 Sep 20263–2
  • WonCoventry13 Sep 20265–0
  • LostChelsea30 Aug 20263–4

Brighton: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
3 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Liverpool
Last match
5 days before20 Oct 2026 · v Villarreal · UEFA Champions League
Next match
3 days after28 Oct 2026 · v Chelsea · League Cup
Brighton
Last match
3 days before22 Oct 2026 · v FK Jablonec · UEFA Europa Conference League
Next match
3 days after28 Oct 2026 · v Manchester City · League Cup

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

LiverpoolBrighton
75Since 27 Oct 2024Matches with xG75Since 26 Oct 2024
139.00xG for119.66
143Goals scored127
88.32xG against100.83
99Goals conceded100

Liverpool

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Liverpool: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026at Brentford1.540.902–1
11 Oct 2026v Manchester City0.941.280–3
20 Sep 2026at Bournemouth1.650.791–0
12 Sep 2026v Fulham1.280.700–0
4 Sep 2026at Ipswich0.690.752–0
29 Aug 2026v Nottingham Forest1.752.302–2
23 Aug 2026at Newcastle2.981.582–2
24 May 2026v Brentford3.041.561–1
15 May 2026at Aston Villa1.551.912–4
9 May 2026v Chelsea0.560.501–1

Brighton

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Brighton: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Oct 2026v Crystal Palace2.000.775–0
10 Oct 2026at Sunderland1.410.722–0
19 Sep 2026v Arsenal1.311.633–0
13 Sep 2026at Coventry2.811.335–0
5 Sep 2026v Leeds2.192.491–1
30 Aug 2026at Chelsea1.412.933–4
23 Aug 2026v Aston Villa3.770.294–0
24 May 2026v Manchester United0.791.660–3
17 May 2026at Leeds3.060.390–1
9 May 2026v Wolves1.620.493–0

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

LiverpoolBrighton
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
12Points in those matches16
11.20xPts12.21
10.83xG for14.90
8.30xG against10.16

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Liverpool and Brighton

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • LiverpoolLiverpool
    Ruled out
    C. Bradley (Knee Injury) · H. Ekitike (Achilles Tendon Injury) · J. Frimpong (Muscle Injury) · G. Leoni (Knee Injury) · A. Nallo (Leg Injury) · D. Szoboszlai (Muscle Injury)
    Doubtful
    V. Munoz (Knee Injury)
  • BrightonBrighton
    Ruled out
    F. Azeez (Abdominal strain) · E. Ferguson (Ankle Injury) · Y. Minteh (Injury) · K. Mitoma (Hamstring Injury) · S. Tzimas (Knee Injury) · M. Wieffer (Knee Injury) · Z. Yohanna (Injury)
    Doubtful
    P. Struijk (Rest)

Published 25 Oct 2026, 12:58 GMT · not changed since

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