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Premier League
Liverpool
0–3Finished
Manchester City
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 16:30 BSTMatchday 6

Liverpool v Manchester City match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Liverpool host Manchester City in a closely balanced fixture. The model sees marginal advantages for either outcome, with expected goals of 2.93 total. Manchester City arrive in superior form with five straight wins, but Liverpool are at home and both teams face injury disruptions.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 36%Liverpool win
  • 27%Draw
  • 37%Manchester City win

PRO analysis

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

LiverpoolLiverpool

Last 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats

Manchester CityManchester City

Last 5: 5 wins, no draws, no defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 185 of 264.
  • Manchester City won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Liverpool unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
  • Manchester City unbeaten in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Liverpool 3, draws 2, Manchester City 5

Goals: Liverpool 11, Manchester City 18

DateMatchScore
4 Apr 2026Manchester City v LiverpoolFA Cup4–0
8 Feb 2026Liverpool v Manchester City1–2
9 Nov 2025Manchester City v Liverpool3–0
23 Feb 2025Manchester City v Liverpool0–2
1 Dec 2024Liverpool v Manchester City2–0
10 Mar 2024Liverpool v Manchester City1–1
25 Nov 2023Manchester City v Liverpool1–1
1 Apr 2023Manchester City v Liverpool4–1
22 Dec 2022Manchester City v LiverpoolLeague Cup3–2
16 Oct 2022Liverpool v Manchester City1–0

Home and away

Liverpool

Liverpool at home

Last 5: 2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonTottenhamLeague Cup15 Sep 20263–1
  • DrawnFulham12 Sep 20260–0
  • WonAtletico MadridUEFA Champions League9 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnNottingham Forest29 Aug 20262–2
  • DrawnBrentford24 May 20261–1

Liverpool: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
20 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Manchester City

Manchester City away

Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonManchester United13 Sep 20261–0
  • WonFC PortoUEFA Champions League8 Sep 20262–0
  • WonCrystal Palace28 Aug 20264–1
  • DrawnBournemouth19 May 20261–1
  • WonChelseaFA Cup16 May 20261–0

Manchester City: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
19 scored, 9 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Liverpool
Last match
21 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Bournemouth · Premier League
Next match
3 days after14 Oct 2026 · v Lask Linz · UEFA Champions League
Manchester City
Last match
21 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Sunderland · Premier League
Next match
3 days after14 Oct 2026 · v Paris Saint Germain · UEFA Champions League

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 20 Oct 2024

LiverpoolManchester City
74Matches with xG74
138.46xG for136.38
143Goals scored145
87.13xG against91.60
96Goals conceded76

Liverpool

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Liverpool: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026at Bournemouth1.650.791–0
12 Sep 2026v Fulham1.280.700–0
4 Sep 2026at Ipswich0.690.752–0
29 Aug 2026v Nottingham Forest1.752.302–2
23 Aug 2026at Newcastle2.981.582–2
24 May 2026v Brentford3.041.561–1
15 May 2026at Aston Villa1.551.912–4
9 May 2026v Chelsea0.560.501–1
3 May 2026at Manchester United0.892.342–3
25 Apr 2026v Crystal Palace1.152.263–1

Manchester City

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Manchester City: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026v Sunderland2.823.575–3
13 Sep 2026at Manchester United1.101.001–0
5 Sep 2026v Coventry2.121.371–0
28 Aug 2026at Crystal Palace2.210.664–1
23 Aug 2026v Bournemouth2.250.652–1
24 May 2026v Aston Villa1.341.771–2
19 May 2026at Bournemouth1.482.251–1
13 May 2026v Crystal Palace1.660.733–0
9 May 2026v Brentford2.980.243–0
4 May 2026at Everton1.542.723–3

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

LiverpoolManchester City
5 of 5Matches with xG5 of 5
9Points in those matches15
8.27xPts9.10
8.35xG for10.50
6.12xG against7.25

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Liverpool and Manchester City

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • LiverpoolLiverpool
    Ruled out
    C. Bradley (Knee Injury) · H. Ekitike (Achilles Tendon Injury) · C. Gakpo (Ankle Injury) · A. Isak (Thigh Injury) · G. Leoni (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    F. Chiesa (Back Injury)
  • Manchester CityManchester City
    Ruled out
    P. Foden (Red Card)
    Doubtful
    N. O'Reilly (Injury)

Published 11 Oct 2026, 16:13 BST · not changed since

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