Lommel United v Gent match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Lommel United hosts Gent in a fixture where the model gives the home side a 42% chance of winning, with Gent at 30% and a draw at 28%. The expected goals are 1.42 for Lommel and 1.2 for Gent, totalling 2.62 with a gap of 0.22 in Lommel's favour. However, Lommel has won only once in its last five matches while Gent has won four of its last five, suggesting contrasting form trajectories.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 42%Lommel United win
- 28%Draw
- 30%Gent win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
Lommel UnitedLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
- drew2–2at OH Leuven
- won3–1at SK Beveren
- drew0–0v KV Mechelen
- lost0–5at Union St. Gilloise
- lost0–1v Club Brugge KV
GentLast 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, no defeats
- won4–0v Anderlecht
- won2–0at Zulte Waregem
- won2–1v Standard Liege
- drew1–1at Genk
- won3–0at Cercle Brugge
Head-to-head
Head-to-head data was not available for this match.
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Jupiler Pro League, since 28 Jul 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 190 of 247.
- Gent won 24 of 34 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
- Not both teams scored in 6 of Lommel United's last 8 home league games.
Home and away
Lommel UnitedLommel United at home
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- DrawnKV Mechelen19 Sep 20260–0
- LostClub Brugge KV4 Sep 20260–1
- WonKVC Westerlo23 Aug 20264–0
- LostCharleroi16 Aug 20260–1
- WonDender17 May 20263–2
Lommel United: home league games
Last 8 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 13 scored, 6 conceded in 8
- Both teams scored
- 2 of 8
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 8
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 8
GentGent away
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- LostSC BragaUEFA Europa Conference League22 Oct 20260–2
- WonZulte Waregem10 Oct 20262–0
- DrawnGenk13 Sep 20261–1
- WonCercle Brugge6 Sep 20263–0
- WonHibernianUEFA Europa Conference League27 Aug 20263–2
Gent: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 13 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Lommel United- Last match
- 8 days before24 Oct 2026 · v OH Leuven · Jupiler Pro League
- Next match
- 6 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Antwerp · Jupiler Pro League
Gent- Last match
- 7 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Anderlecht · Jupiler Pro League
- Next match
- 4 days after5 Nov 2026 · v KuPS · UEFA Europa Conference League
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 3 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Gent
| Score | Gent | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 24 won, 6 drawn, 4 lost in 34 matches | 644 won, 196 drawn, 122 lost in 962 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 8 drawn, 23 lost in 35 matches | 122 won, 196 drawn, 644 lost in 962 matches |
| Level at half-time | 12 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 31 matches | 242 won, 328 drawn, 242 lost in 812 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 8 won, 12 drawn, 6 lost in 26 matches | 170 won, 304 drawn, 170 lost in 644 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches | 118 won, 338 drawn, 118 lost in 574 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 6 won, 17 drawn, 2 lost in 25 matches | 105 won, 368 drawn, 105 lost in 578 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 17 won, 16 drawn, 21 lost in 54 matches | 530 won, 412 drawn, 530 lost in 1472 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 15 won, 13 drawn, 10 lost in 38 matches | 381 won, 344 drawn, 381 lost in 1106 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Gent | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 32 scored, 25 conceded (78) | 688 scored, 688 conceded (2072) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 8 conceded (26) | 268 scored, 245 conceded (747) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 5 conceded (25) | 175 scored, 175 conceded (578) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 12 conceded (27) | 245 scored, 268 conceded (747) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 18(league sides: 1,098 times, within 15 minutes 162, by full time 482)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 28 Jul 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 3 Nov 2024
| Lommel United | Gent | |
|---|---|---|
| — | Matches with xG | 77 |
| — | xG for | 106.60 |
| — | Goals scored | 99 |
| — | xG against | 117.94 |
| — | Goals conceded | 114 |
Gent
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | v Anderlecht | 1.89 | 1.55 | 4–0 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Zulte Waregem | 2.50 | 0.68 | 2–0 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | v Standard Liege | 1.30 | 1.11 | 2–1 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Genk | 0.89 | 0.94 | 1–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Cercle Brugge | 1.22 | 0.49 | 3–0 |
| 3 Sep 2026 | v OH Leuven | 0.98 | 0.52 | 1–0 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Club Brugge KV | 1.38 | 0.65 | 2–1 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | at RAAL La Louvière | 1.18 | 0.54 | 2–1 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | v KV Mechelen | 1.16 | 0.34 | 2–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Club Brugge KV | 1.85 | 2.81 | 0–5 |
Gent: 1 without xG left out
This league season
Jupiler Pro League matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Lommel United | Gent | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 12 | Points in those matches | 25 |
| 9.42 | xPts | 16.34 |
| 8.88 | xG for | 12.50 |
| 14.67 | xG against | 6.82 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Lommel United and Gent
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 1 Nov 2026, 16:27 GMT · not changed since
All fixtures