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Ligue 1
Lorient
1–0Finished
Monaco
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 16:15 BSTMatchday 7 · Stade du Moustoir, Lorient

Lorient v Monaco match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Lorient and Monaco are evenly matched, with the model giving Lorient a 38% chance of winning and Monaco 35%. The teams have split recent meetings with aggressive performances, and the expected goals total is 2.85.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 38%Lorient win
  • 27%Draw
  • 35%Monaco win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

LorientLorient

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

MonacoMonaco

Last 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Ligue 1, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 180 of 232.
  • Monaco won 29 of 41 matches in which they scored first, since 18 Oct 2024.
  • Lorient won 3 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Monaco unbeaten in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: Lorient 3, draws 4, Monaco 1

Goals: Lorient 14, Monaco 11

DateMatchScore
16 Jan 2026Monaco v Lorient1–3
27 Sep 2025Lorient v Monaco3–1
17 Mar 2024Monaco v Lorient2–2
17 Sep 2023Lorient v Monaco2–2
16 Apr 2023Monaco v Lorient3–1
11 Jan 2023Lorient v Monaco2–2
13 Feb 2022Monaco v Lorient0–0
13 Aug 2021Lorient v Monaco1–0

Home and away

Lorient

Lorient at home

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • WonParis FC10 Oct 20261–0
  • DrawnToulouse12 Sep 20262–2
  • LostEstac Troyes29 Aug 20261–2
  • LostLe Havre17 May 20260–2
  • LostStrasbourg26 Apr 20262–3

Lorient: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Monaco

Monaco away

Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonCSKA SofiaUEFA Europa Conference League15 Oct 20262–1
  • DrawnStrasbourg12 Sep 20261–1
  • WonParis Saint Germain4 Sep 20262–1
  • WonLe Havre23 Aug 20261–0
  • WonGornik ZabrzeUEFA Europa Conference League20 Aug 20263–2

Monaco: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
21 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
9 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Lorient
Last match
8 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Paris FC · Ligue 1
Next match
7 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Angers · Ligue 1
Monaco
Last match
3 days before15 Oct 2026 · v CSKA Sofia · UEFA Europa Conference League
Next match
4 days after22 Oct 2026 · v SC Freiburg · UEFA Europa Conference League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Lorient

Since 17 Aug 2025

ScoreLorientLeague sides
Level after 15 minutes10 won, 11 drawn, 10 lost in 31 matches513 won, 354 drawn, 513 lost in 1380 matches
Level after 30 minutes7 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 23 matches348 won, 314 drawn, 348 lost in 1010 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLorientLeague sides
All matches14 scored, 16 conceded (40)651 scored, 651 conceded (1964)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 21 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 10(league sides: 1,063 times, within 15 minutes 161, by full time 465)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Monaco

Since 18 Oct 2024

ScoreMonacoLeague sides
Scored first29 won, 6 drawn, 6 lost in 41 matches636 won, 166 drawn, 111 lost in 913 matches
Conceded first8 won, 7 drawn, 22 lost in 37 matches111 won, 166 drawn, 636 lost in 913 matches
1 goal up at half-time16 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches313 won, 84 drawn, 41 lost in 438 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 10 drawn, 10 lost in 32 matches254 won, 276 drawn, 254 lost in 784 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 13 drawn, 9 lost in 31 matches176 won, 282 drawn, 176 lost in 634 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes15 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches316 won, 79 drawn, 22 lost in 417 matches
Level after 70 minutes9 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches140 won, 298 drawn, 140 lost in 578 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes15 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches316 won, 66 drawn, 8 lost in 390 matches
Level after 80 minutes7 won, 14 drawn, 8 lost in 29 matches118 won, 334 drawn, 118 lost in 570 matches
Level after 15 minutes25 won, 15 drawn, 21 lost in 61 matches513 won, 354 drawn, 513 lost in 1380 matches
Level after 30 minutes23 won, 11 drawn, 15 lost in 49 matches348 won, 314 drawn, 348 lost in 1010 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreMonacoLeague sides
All matches30 scored, 31 conceded (85)651 scored, 651 conceded (1964)
When leading after 75 minutes12 scored, 12 conceded (36)274 scored, 222 conceded (706)
When level after 75 minutes9 scored, 8 conceded (26)155 scored, 155 conceded (552)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 11 conceded (23)222 scored, 274 conceded (706)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 24(league sides: 1,063 times, within 15 minutes 161, by full time 465)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

LorientMonaco
40Since 17 Aug 2025Matches with xG67Since 18 Oct 2024
52.00xG for125.41
54Goals scored119
54.45xG against87.73
57Goals conceded96

Lorient

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Lorient: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Paris FC0.550.971–0
19 Sep 2026at Le Mans0.970.921–2
12 Sep 2026v Toulouse0.931.632–2
5 Sep 2026at Lens1.601.241–0
29 Aug 2026v Estac Troyes1.152.121–2
22 Aug 2026at Nice1.281.050–0
17 May 2026v Le Havre1.301.250–2
10 May 2026at Metz2.000.674–0
2 May 2026at Paris Saint Germain0.962.422–2
26 Apr 2026v Strasbourg2.281.342–3

Monaco

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Monaco: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Toulouse1.171.432–2
18 Sep 2026v Lens1.751.192–1
12 Sep 2026at Strasbourg1.051.021–1
4 Sep 2026at Paris Saint Germain0.512.322–1
30 Aug 2026v Marseille1.721.402–0
23 Aug 2026at Le Havre1.390.601–0
17 May 2026at Strasbourg1.131.504–5
10 May 2026v Lille0.370.390–1
2 May 2026at Metz1.251.222–1
25 Apr 2026at Toulouse0.741.752–2

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

LorientMonaco
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
8Points in those matches14
7.18xPts8.21
6.48xG for7.59
7.93xG against7.96

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Lorient and Monaco

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • LorientLorient
    Ruled out
    N. Mbamba (Muscle Injury)
  • MonacoMonaco
    Ruled out
    P. Brunner (Suspended)
    Doubtful
    E. Dier (Muscle Injury) · S. Idumbo (Injury)

Published 18 Oct 2026, 15:12 BST · not changed since

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