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Ligue 1
Lorient
1–0Finished
Paris FC
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 19:45 BST

Lorient v Paris FC match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 37%Lorient win
  • 26%Draw
  • 37%Paris FC win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

LorientLorient

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Paris FCParis FC

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Lorient won 18 of 25 matches in which they scored first, since 1 Mar 2025.
  • Paris FC won 21 of 28 matches in which they scored first, since 28 Feb 2025.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Lorient's last 10 home league games.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Paris FC's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

5 meetings: Lorient 2, draws 1, Paris FC 2

Goals: Lorient 7, Paris FC 6

DateMatchScore
5 Apr 2026Lorient v Paris FC1–1
4 Feb 2026Lorient v Paris FCCoupe de France2–0
3 Oct 2025Paris FC v Lorient2–0
8 Mar 2025Paris FC v LorientLigue 23–2
14 Dec 2024Lorient v Paris FCLigue 22–0

Home and away

Lorient

Lorient at home

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • DrawnToulouse12 Sep 20262–2
  • LostEstac Troyes29 Aug 20261–2
  • LostLe Havre17 May 20260–2
  • LostStrasbourg26 Apr 20262–3
  • WonMarseille18 Apr 20262–0

Lorient: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Paris FC

Paris FC away

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonMarseille6 Sep 20263–2
  • DrawnEstac Troyes22 Aug 20260–0
  • LostRennes10 May 20261–2
  • WonMetz19 Apr 20263–1
  • DrawnLorient5 Apr 20261–1

Paris FC: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 9 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Lorient
Last match
21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Le Mans · Ligue 1
Next match
8 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Monaco · Ligue 1
Paris FC
Last match
21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Strasbourg · Ligue 1
Next match
8 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Rennes · Ligue 1

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Lorient

Since 1 Mar 2025

ScoreLorientLeague sides
Scored first18 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches629 won, 164 drawn, 109 lost in 902 matches
Conceded first4 won, 6 drawn, 14 lost in 24 matches109 won, 164 drawn, 629 lost in 902 matches
Level after 15 minutes15 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 38 matches507 won, 352 drawn, 507 lost in 1366 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 11 drawn, 7 lost in 27 matches342 won, 314 drawn, 342 lost in 998 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLorientLeague sides
All matches26 scored, 16 conceded (52)643 scored, 643 conceded (1942)
When leading after 75 minutes19 scored, 5 conceded (23)270 scored, 219 conceded (698)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 27 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 14(league sides: 1,049 times, within 15 minutes 158, by full time 458)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Paris FC

Since 28 Feb 2025

ScoreParis FCLeague sides
Scored first21 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 28 matches629 won, 164 drawn, 109 lost in 902 matches
Level at half-time7 won, 10 drawn, 5 lost in 22 matches249 won, 276 drawn, 249 lost in 774 matches
Level after 15 minutes14 won, 14 drawn, 12 lost in 40 matches507 won, 352 drawn, 507 lost in 1366 matches
Level after 30 minutes7 won, 13 drawn, 6 lost in 26 matches342 won, 314 drawn, 342 lost in 998 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreParis FCLeague sides
All matches19 scored, 18 conceded (52)643 scored, 643 conceded (1942)
When leading after 75 minutes6 scored, 7 conceded (22)270 scored, 219 conceded (698)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 22 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 10(league sides: 1,049 times, within 15 minutes 158, by full time 458)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 17 Aug 2025

LorientParis FC
39Matches with xG39
51.45xG for53.82
53Goals scored55
53.48xG against59.19
57Goals conceded53

Lorient

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Lorient: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026at Le Mans0.970.921–2
12 Sep 2026v Toulouse0.931.632–2
5 Sep 2026at Lens1.601.241–0
29 Aug 2026v Estac Troyes1.152.121–2
22 Aug 2026at Nice1.281.050–0
17 May 2026v Le Havre1.301.250–2
10 May 2026at Metz2.000.674–0
2 May 2026at Paris Saint Germain0.962.422–2
26 Apr 2026v Strasbourg2.281.342–3
18 Apr 2026v Marseille1.331.652–0

Paris FC

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Paris FC: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026v Strasbourg1.050.242–1
12 Sep 2026v Lyon0.300.500–0
6 Sep 2026at Marseille3.291.423–2
30 Aug 2026v Nice2.380.783–0
22 Aug 2026at Estac Troyes1.800.420–0
17 May 2026v Paris Saint Germain2.200.612–1
10 May 2026at Rennes1.201.771–2
3 May 2026v Stade Brestois 291.860.794–0
26 Apr 2026v Lille1.061.710–1
19 Apr 2026at Metz1.741.013–1

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

LorientParis FC
5 of 5Matches with xG5 of 5
5Points in those matches11
6.22xPts10.12
5.93xG for8.82
6.96xG against3.36

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Lorient and Paris FC

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • LorientLorientB. Fadiga (Ankle Injury) · P. Katseris (Hamstring Injury) · N. Mbamba (Muscle Injury)
  • Paris FCParis FCN. Sangui (Muscle Injury)

Published 10 Oct 2026, 19:12 BST · not changed since

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