LEDGER
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Ligue 1
Lyon
2–1Finished
Nice
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 19:45 BSTMatchday 7 · Groupama Stadium, Lyon

Lyon v Nice match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model makes Lyon 59% likely to win at home. Lyon's expected goal tally (1.86) exceeds Nice's (0.96), and both sides face injury concerns that may affect performance, though lineups are not yet confirmed.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 59%Lyon win
  • 24%Draw
  • 17%Nice win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

LyonLyon

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

NiceNice

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Lyon won 43 of 56 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Nice won 23 of 36 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • Lyon won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Nice without a win in their last 5 away games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Lyon 5, draws 2, Nice 3

Goals: Lyon 17, Nice 11

DateMatchScore
15 Feb 2026Lyon v Nice2–0
18 Oct 2025Nice v Lyon3–2
9 Mar 2025Nice v Lyon0–2
1 Dec 2024Lyon v Nice4–1
16 Feb 2024Lyon v Nice1–0
27 Aug 2023Nice v Lyon0–0
3 Jun 2023Nice v Lyon3–1
11 Nov 2022Lyon v Nice1–1
12 Feb 2022Lyon v Nice2–0
24 Oct 2021Nice v Lyon3–2

Home and away

Lyon

Lyon at home

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonCrystal PalaceUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20263–2
  • WonRennes19 Sep 20264–0
  • WonAuxerre4 Sep 20263–1
  • DrawnLe Havre29 Aug 20261–1
  • LostFenerbahçeUEFA Champions League26 Aug 20261–2

Lyon: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
21 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Nice

Nice away

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostAuxerre12 Sep 20260–1
  • LostParis FC30 Aug 20260–3
  • DrawnSaint Etienne26 May 20260–0
  • LostLensCoupe de France22 May 20261–3
  • LostAuxerre10 May 20261–2

Nice: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
5 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
3 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
3 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Lyon
Last match
3 days before15 Oct 2026 · v Crystal Palace · UEFA Europa League
Next match
4 days after22 Oct 2026 · v 1899 Hoffenheim · UEFA Europa League
Nice
Last match
7 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Strasbourg · Ligue 1
Next match
5 days after23 Oct 2026 · v Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 20 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Lyon

ScoreLyonLeague sides
Scored first43 won, 7 drawn, 6 lost in 56 matches639 won, 166 drawn, 112 lost in 917 matches
Conceded first6 won, 6 drawn, 18 lost in 30 matches112 won, 166 drawn, 639 lost in 917 matches
1 goal up at half-time18 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 28 matches316 won, 84 drawn, 41 lost in 441 matches
Level at half-time19 won, 12 drawn, 6 lost in 37 matches255 won, 276 drawn, 255 lost in 786 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes21 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost in 28 matches314 won, 83 drawn, 29 lost in 426 matches
Level after 60 minutes10 won, 13 drawn, 5 lost in 28 matches177 won, 282 drawn, 177 lost in 636 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes22 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches270 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 277 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes18 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches319 won, 79 drawn, 22 lost in 420 matches
Level after 70 minutes8 won, 12 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches140 won, 298 drawn, 140 lost in 578 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes26 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches306 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 308 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes16 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches319 won, 66 drawn, 8 lost in 393 matches
Level after 80 minutes7 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches118 won, 334 drawn, 118 lost in 570 matches
Level after 15 minutes31 won, 17 drawn, 17 lost in 65 matches515 won, 354 drawn, 515 lost in 1384 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes16 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches266 won, 69 drawn, 60 lost in 395 matches
Level after 30 minutes22 won, 14 drawn, 13 lost in 49 matches351 won, 314 drawn, 351 lost in 1016 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLyonLeague sides
All matches44 scored, 30 conceded (93)657 scored, 657 conceded (1972)
When leading after 75 minutes16 scored, 16 conceded (46)277 scored, 222 conceded (709)
When level after 75 minutes13 scored, 7 conceded (23)158 scored, 158 conceded (554)
When trailing after 75 minutes15 scored, 7 conceded (24)222 scored, 277 conceded (709)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 36 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 19(league sides: 1,069 times, within 15 minutes 162, by full time 468)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Nice

ScoreNiceLeague sides
Scored first23 won, 7 drawn, 6 lost in 36 matches639 won, 166 drawn, 112 lost in 917 matches
Conceded first3 won, 10 drawn, 31 lost in 44 matches112 won, 166 drawn, 639 lost in 917 matches
1 goal up at half-time12 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches316 won, 84 drawn, 41 lost in 441 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 10 drawn, 10 lost in 28 matches255 won, 276 drawn, 255 lost in 786 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches41 won, 84 drawn, 316 lost in 441 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 12 drawn, 12 lost in 29 matches177 won, 282 drawn, 177 lost in 636 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes0 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost in 21 matches22 won, 79 drawn, 319 lost in 420 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 5 drawn, 17 lost in 22 matches8 won, 66 drawn, 319 lost in 393 matches
Level after 15 minutes18 won, 17 drawn, 23 lost in 58 matches515 won, 354 drawn, 515 lost in 1384 matches
Level after 30 minutes12 won, 13 drawn, 20 lost in 45 matches351 won, 314 drawn, 351 lost in 1016 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreNiceLeague sides
All matches20 scored, 24 conceded (85)657 scored, 657 conceded (1972)
When leading after 75 minutes11 scored, 9 conceded (30)277 scored, 222 conceded (709)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 9 conceded (37)222 scored, 277 conceded (709)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 52 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 20(league sides: 1,069 times, within 15 minutes 162, by full time 468)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 20 Oct 2024

LyonNice
67Matches with xG67
112.32xG for100.00
119Goals scored93
88.27xG against99.80
78Goals conceded101

Lyon

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Lyon: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
9 Oct 2026at Lens1.041.341–2
19 Sep 2026v Rennes3.131.374–0
12 Sep 2026at Paris FC0.500.300–0
4 Sep 2026v Auxerre2.850.713–1
29 Aug 2026v Le Havre1.750.691–1
22 Aug 2026at Toulouse0.702.772–0
17 May 2026v Lens1.911.540–4
10 May 2026at Toulouse1.541.131–2
3 May 2026v Rennes3.170.844–2
25 Apr 2026v Auxerre2.120.523–2

Nice

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Nice: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026v Strasbourg1.250.632–1
20 Sep 2026v Lille1.501.582–1
12 Sep 2026at Auxerre1.081.740–1
5 Sep 2026v Le Mans1.121.281–1
30 Aug 2026at Paris FC0.782.380–3
22 Aug 2026v Lorient1.051.280–0
17 May 2026v Metz1.640.850–0
10 May 2026at Auxerre1.330.841–2
2 May 2026v Lens1.071.531–1
26 Apr 2026at Marseille1.462.321–1

Nice: 2 without xG left out

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

LyonNice
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
11Points in those matches8
9.92xPts7.03
9.97xG for6.78
7.18xG against8.89

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Lyon and Nice

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • LyonLyon
    Ruled out
    L. Openda (Leg Injury) · M. Ouedraogo (Knee Injury) · N. Tagliafico (Knee Injury)
  • NiceNice
    Ruled out
    L. Abergel (Knee Injury) · M. Bombito (Leg Injury) · A. Mendy (Knee Injury) · M. Sanson (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    A. Abdi (Muscle Injury)

Published 18 Oct 2026, 19:27 BST · not changed since

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