Malaga v Real Sociedad match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
The model gives Real Sociedad a 38% chance of winning at Malaga, who are favoured at just 35%. Both sides are in poor form, but Malaga's five injury absences—including four defenders—weaken their position considerably. The model expects 2.7 goals.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 35%Malaga win
- 27%Draw
- 38%Real Sociedad win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
MalagaLast 5: no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats
Real SociedadLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- La Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 249 of 314.
- Malaga without a win in their last 5 home games.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Malaga's last 10 home league games.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Malaga's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
1 meeting: Malaga 0, draws 0, Real Sociedad 1
Goals: Malaga 0, Real Sociedad 1
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2024 | Malaga v Real SociedadCopa del Rey | 0–1 |
Home and away
MalagaMalaga at home
Last 5: 0 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost
- DrawnEspanyol9 Oct 20261–1
- LostVillarreal17 Sep 20261–3
- DrawnLevante6 Sep 20260–0
- DrawnDeportivo La Coruna24 Aug 20261–1
- DrawnAlmeriaSegunda División14 Jun 20260–0
Malaga: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Real SociedadReal Sociedad away
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- DrawnUnion St. GilloiseUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20261–1
- WonValencia20 Sep 20263–2
- WonElche7 Sep 20263–2
- LostReal Madrid26 Aug 20261–4
- LostReal Betis21 Aug 20260–1
Real Sociedad: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 21 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Malaga- Last match
- 9 days before9 Oct 2026 · v Espanyol · La Liga
- Next match
- 5 days after23 Oct 2026 · v Alaves · La Liga
Real Sociedad- Last match
- 3 days before15 Oct 2026 · v Union St. Gilloise · UEFA Europa League
- Next match
- 4 days after22 Oct 2026 · v Lillestrom · UEFA Europa League
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Malaga | Real Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|
| — | Matches with xG | 75 |
| — | xG for | 95.40 |
| — | Goals scored | 99 |
| — | xG against | 104.11 |
| — | Goals conceded | 114 |
Real Sociedad
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Deportivo La Coruna | 1.44 | 2.13 | 3–2 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Valencia | 2.65 | 1.55 | 3–2 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Atletico Madrid | 0.27 | 2.05 | 0–3 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | at Elche | 0.58 | 2.47 | 3–2 |
| 3 Sep 2026 | v Celta Vigo | 1.05 | 0.43 | 0–0 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Espanyol | 1.82 | 0.77 | 2–1 |
| 26 Aug 2026 | at Real Madrid | 0.57 | 3.14 | 1–4 |
| 21 Aug 2026 | at Real Betis | 1.36 | 1.24 | 0–1 |
| 23 May 2026 | at Espanyol | 1.40 | 2.41 | 1–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Valencia | 1.15 | 1.67 | 3–4 |
This league season
La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.
| Malaga | Real Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 4 | Points in those matches | 13 |
| 7.29 | xPts | 9.24 |
| 6.54 | xG for | 9.74 |
| 12.73 | xG against | 13.78 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Malaga and Real Sociedad
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- J. Cruz (Injury) · M. Diarra (Calf Injury) · J. Lobete (Knee Injury) · D. Murillo (Knee Injury) · A. Ochoa (Knee Injury)
- Ruled out
- L. Beitia (Ankle Injury) · P. Marin (Red Card) · A. Odriozola (Knee Injury)
Published 18 Oct 2026, 16:27 BST · not changed since
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