Manchester City v Ipswich match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Manchester City are heavily favoured to beat Ipswich, with a 79% chance of victory. The model expects City to create significantly more chances, forecasting 2.74 expected goals to Ipswich's 0.76. City won 6-0 when these sides met earlier this season and have won four of their last five matches.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 79%Manchester City win
- 14%Draw
- 7%Ipswich win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
Manchester CityLast 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat
IpswichLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 186 of 265.
- Ipswich won 26 of 39 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Over 2.5 goals in 9 of Manchester City's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
2 meetings: Manchester City 2, draws 0, Ipswich 0
Goals: Manchester City 10, Ipswich 1
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Jan 2025 | Ipswich v Manchester City | 0–6 |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Manchester City v Ipswich | 4–1 |
Home and away
Manchester CityManchester City at home
Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost
- LostParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League14 Oct 20262–4
- WonSunderland20 Sep 20265–3
- WonNorwichLeague Cup17 Sep 20265–0
- WonCoventry5 Sep 20261–0
- WonBournemouth23 Aug 20262–1
Manchester City: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 24 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 9 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
IpswichIpswich away
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- LostEverton19 Sep 20260–1
- WonCrystal Palace12 Sep 20263–2
- LostManchester United30 Aug 20262–5
- DrawnSouthamptonChampionship28 Apr 20262–2
- DrawnWest BromChampionship25 Apr 20260–0
Ipswich: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 16 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Manchester City- Last match
- 3 days before14 Oct 2026 · v Paris Saint Germain · UEFA Champions League
- Next match
- 3 days after20 Oct 2026 · v AEK Athens FC · UEFA Champions League
Ipswich- Last match
- 7 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Fulham · Premier League
- Next match
- 6 days after23 Oct 2026 · v Nottingham Forest · Premier League
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Ipswich
| Score | Ipswich | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 26 won, 8 drawn, 5 lost in 39 matches | 734 won, 239 drawn, 168 lost in 1141 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 10 drawn, 27 lost in 41 matches | 168 won, 239 drawn, 734 lost in 1141 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 15 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches | 322 won, 125 drawn, 73 lost in 520 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 13 drawn, 10 lost in 32 matches | 299 won, 326 drawn, 299 lost in 924 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 13 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches | 208 won, 322 drawn, 208 lost in 738 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches | 163 won, 354 drawn, 163 lost in 680 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 13 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches | 124 won, 388 drawn, 124 lost in 636 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches | 22 won, 99 drawn, 350 lost in 471 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 17 won, 19 drawn, 23 lost in 59 matches | 610 won, 454 drawn, 610 lost in 1674 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 16 won, 17 drawn, 12 lost in 45 matches | 424 won, 384 drawn, 424 lost in 1232 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Ipswich | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 34 scored, 23 conceded (83) | 870 scored, 870 conceded (2400) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 6 conceded (27) | 312 scored, 326 conceded (876) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 7 conceded (22) | 232 scored, 232 conceded (648) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 10 conceded (34) | 326 scored, 312 conceded (876) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 22(league sides: 1,354 times, within 15 minutes 230, by full time 650)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Manchester City | Ipswich | |
|---|---|---|
| 75Since 20 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 83Since 19 Oct 2024 |
| 137.66 | xG for | 116.73 |
| 148 | Goals scored | 119 |
| 92.54 | xG against | 115.83 |
| 76 | Goals conceded | 127 |
Manchester City
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Liverpool | 1.28 | 0.94 | 3–0 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Sunderland | 2.82 | 3.57 | 5–3 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Manchester United | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Coventry | 2.12 | 1.37 | 1–0 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | at Crystal Palace | 2.21 | 0.66 | 4–1 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Bournemouth | 2.25 | 0.65 | 2–1 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Aston Villa | 1.34 | 1.77 | 1–2 |
| 19 May 2026 | at Bournemouth | 1.48 | 2.25 | 1–1 |
| 13 May 2026 | v Crystal Palace | 1.66 | 0.73 | 3–0 |
| 9 May 2026 | v Brentford | 2.98 | 0.24 | 3–0 |
Ipswich
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Fulham | 1.15 | 1.81 | 2–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Everton | 1.44 | 2.24 | 0–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Crystal Palace | 1.67 | 0.62 | 3–2 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | v Liverpool | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0–2 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Manchester United | 2.01 | 4.56 | 2–5 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Sunderland | 1.80 | 0.66 | 2–1 |
| 2 May 2026 | v QPR | 2.53 | 0.84 | 3–0 |
| 28 Apr 2026 | at Southampton | 1.92 | 1.01 | 2–2 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | at West Brom | 1.07 | 1.30 | 0–0 |
| 22 Apr 2026 | at Charlton | 1.87 | 0.33 | 2–1 |
This league season
Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Manchester City | Ipswich | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 of 6 | Matches with xG | 6 of 6 |
| 18 | Points in those matches | 9 |
| 10.71 | xPts | 7.97 |
| 11.78 | xG for | 8.82 |
| 8.19 | xG against | 10.58 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Manchester City and Ipswich
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Doubtful
- J. Taylor (Knee Injury)
Published 17 Oct 2026, 13:57 BST · not changed since
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