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Premier League
Manchester United
0–3Finished
Bournemouth
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 14:00 GMTMatchday 8 · Old Trafford, Manchester

Manchester United v Bournemouth match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives Manchester United a 42% chance of winning, with Bournemouth at 32% and a draw at 26%. Manchester United have not won in five league matches and are without five first-team players, though both teams face injury concerns.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 42%Manchester United win
  • 26%Draw
  • 32%Bournemouth win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Manchester UnitedManchester United

Last 5: no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats

BournemouthBournemouth

Last 5: 3 wins, no draws, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Manchester United won 28 of 45 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
  • Bournemouth won 24 of 41 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Manchester United's last 10 home league games.
  • Both teams scored in 8 of Manchester United's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: Manchester United 2, draws 4, Bournemouth 2

Goals: Manchester United 13, Bournemouth 15

DateMatchScore
20 Mar 2026Bournemouth v Manchester United2–2
15 Dec 2025Manchester United v Bournemouth4–4
27 Apr 2025Bournemouth v Manchester United1–1
22 Dec 2024Manchester United v Bournemouth0–3
13 Apr 2024Bournemouth v Manchester United2–2
9 Dec 2023Manchester United v Bournemouth0–3
20 May 2023Bournemouth v Manchester United0–1
3 Jan 2023Manchester United v Bournemouth3–0

Home and away

Manchester United

Manchester United at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnTottenham10 Oct 20261–1
  • LostBrightonLeague Cup16 Sep 20262–3
  • LostManchester City13 Sep 20260–1
  • WonSabah FAUEFA Champions League10 Sep 20264–0
  • WonIpswich30 Aug 20265–2

Manchester United: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
22 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Bournemouth

Bournemouth away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostChelsea10 Oct 20261–5
  • WonReal SociedadUEFA Europa League17 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnNewcastle5 Sep 20262–2
  • LostManchester City23 Aug 20261–2
  • DrawnNottingham Forest24 May 20261–1

Bournemouth: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Manchester United
Last match
4 days before21 Oct 2026 · v Como · UEFA Champions League
Next match
6 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Chelsea · Premier League
Bournemouth
Last match
3 days before22 Oct 2026 · v AC Milan · UEFA Europa League
Next match
3 days after28 Oct 2026 · v Aston Villa · League Cup

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Manchester United

Since 27 Oct 2024

ScoreManchester UnitedLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 16 drawn, 1 lost in 45 matches746 won, 241 drawn, 169 lost in 1156 matches
Conceded first10 won, 7 drawn, 26 lost in 43 matches169 won, 241 drawn, 746 lost in 1156 matches
Level at half-time15 won, 16 drawn, 12 lost in 43 matches303 won, 328 drawn, 303 lost in 934 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches357 won, 126 drawn, 52 lost in 535 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches211 won, 326 drawn, 211 lost in 748 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes4 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 23 matches52 won, 126 drawn, 357 lost in 535 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes14 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches350 won, 113 drawn, 37 lost in 500 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 11 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches166 won, 358 drawn, 166 lost in 690 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes3 won, 6 drawn, 15 lost in 24 matches37 won, 113 drawn, 350 lost in 500 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes18 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches359 won, 99 drawn, 22 lost in 480 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes2 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches22 won, 99 drawn, 359 lost in 480 matches
Level after 15 minutes28 won, 21 drawn, 16 lost in 65 matches618 won, 456 drawn, 618 lost in 1692 matches
Level after 30 minutes18 won, 17 drawn, 13 lost in 48 matches432 won, 386 drawn, 432 lost in 1250 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes4 won, 4 drawn, 12 lost in 20 matches78 won, 104 drawn, 316 lost in 498 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreManchester UnitedLeague sides
All matches45 scored, 30 conceded (90)878 scored, 878 conceded (2430)
When leading after 75 minutes18 scored, 18 conceded (36)315 scored, 327 conceded (886)
When level after 75 minutes10 scored, 3 conceded (20)236 scored, 236 conceded (658)
When trailing after 75 minutes17 scored, 9 conceded (34)327 scored, 315 conceded (886)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 51 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 27(league sides: 1,370 times, within 15 minutes 231, by full time 656)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Bournemouth

Since 26 Oct 2024

ScoreBournemouthLeague sides
Scored first24 won, 12 drawn, 5 lost in 41 matches746 won, 241 drawn, 169 lost in 1156 matches
Conceded first5 won, 11 drawn, 14 lost in 30 matches169 won, 241 drawn, 746 lost in 1156 matches
1 goal up at half-time15 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches329 won, 126 drawn, 74 lost in 529 matches
Level at half-time5 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches303 won, 328 drawn, 303 lost in 934 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes14 won, 9 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches357 won, 126 drawn, 52 lost in 535 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 25 matches211 won, 326 drawn, 211 lost in 748 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes14 won, 9 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches350 won, 113 drawn, 37 lost in 500 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 18 drawn, 3 lost in 26 matches166 won, 358 drawn, 166 lost in 690 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes15 won, 8 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches359 won, 99 drawn, 22 lost in 480 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 16 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches124 won, 392 drawn, 124 lost in 640 matches
Level after 15 minutes16 won, 25 drawn, 12 lost in 53 matches618 won, 456 drawn, 618 lost in 1692 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes14 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches316 won, 104 drawn, 78 lost in 498 matches
Level after 30 minutes11 won, 21 drawn, 10 lost in 42 matches432 won, 386 drawn, 432 lost in 1250 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreBournemouthLeague sides
All matches34 scored, 26 conceded (78)878 scored, 878 conceded (2430)
When leading after 75 minutes14 scored, 15 conceded (35)315 scored, 327 conceded (886)
When trailing after 75 minutes14 scored, 6 conceded (24)327 scored, 315 conceded (886)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 23(league sides: 1,370 times, within 15 minutes 231, by full time 656)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Manchester UnitedBournemouth
75Since 27 Oct 2024Matches with xG75Since 26 Oct 2024
117.62xG for125.28
116Goals scored115
101.26xG against104.23
105Goals conceded103

Manchester United

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Manchester United: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Oct 2026at Leeds0.931.481–1
10 Oct 2026v Tottenham0.801.621–1
20 Sep 2026at Fulham1.601.621–1
13 Sep 2026v Manchester City1.001.100–1
6 Sep 2026at Everton0.691.012–2
30 Aug 2026v Ipswich4.562.015–2
22 Aug 2026at Hull City1.831.010–2
24 May 2026at Brighton1.660.793–0
17 May 2026v Nottingham Forest4.571.883–2
9 May 2026at Sunderland0.621.250–0

Bournemouth

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Bournemouth: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Oct 2026v Sunderland4.400.132–0
10 Oct 2026at Chelsea1.381.101–5
20 Sep 2026v Liverpool0.791.650–1
12 Sep 2026v Brentford1.750.502–2
5 Sep 2026at Newcastle1.370.712–2
29 Aug 2026v Everton2.161.841–1
23 Aug 2026at Manchester City0.652.251–2
24 May 2026at Nottingham Forest0.951.731–1
19 May 2026v Manchester City2.251.481–1
9 May 2026at Fulham0.821.331–0

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Manchester UnitedBournemouth
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
7Points in those matches6
9.88xPts11.45
11.41xG for12.50
9.85xG against8.18

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Manchester United and Bournemouth

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Manchester UnitedManchester United
    Ruled out
    P. Dorgu (Hamstring Injury) · K. Mainoo (Injury) · B. Sesko (Leg Injury) · L. Shaw (Injury) · M. Ugarte (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    L. Martinez (Muscle Injury) · M. Rashford (Hip Injury)
  • BournemouthBournemouth
    Ruled out
    J. Araujo (Thigh Injury) · A. Scott (Thigh Injury) · A. Toth (Muscle Injury)
    Doubtful
    E. J. Kroupi (Foot Injury) · V. Milosavljevic (Lacking Match Fitness)

Published 25 Oct 2026, 12:58 GMT · not changed since

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