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Premier League
Manchester United
1–1Finished
Tottenham
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 17:30 BST

Manchester United v Tottenham match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 48%Manchester United win
  • 24%Draw
  • 28%Tottenham win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Manchester UnitedManchester United

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

TottenhamTottenham

Last 5: no wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Manchester United won 28 of 44 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 185 of 264.
  • Tottenham won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Manchester United's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Manchester United 2, draws 3, Tottenham 5

Goals: Manchester United 13, Tottenham 17

DateMatchScore
7 Feb 2026Manchester United v Tottenham2–0
8 Nov 2025Tottenham v Manchester United2–2
21 May 2025Tottenham v Manchester UnitedUEFA Europa League1–0
16 Feb 2025Tottenham v Manchester United1–0
19 Dec 2024Tottenham v Manchester UnitedLeague Cup4–3
29 Sep 2024Manchester United v Tottenham0–3
14 Jan 2024Manchester United v Tottenham2–2
19 Aug 2023Tottenham v Manchester United2–0
27 Apr 2023Tottenham v Manchester United2–2
19 Oct 2022Manchester United v Tottenham2–0

Home and away

Manchester United

Manchester United at home

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostBrightonLeague Cup16 Sep 20262–3
  • LostManchester City13 Sep 20260–1
  • WonSabah FAUEFA Champions League10 Sep 20264–0
  • WonIpswich30 Aug 20265–2
  • WonNottingham Forest17 May 20263–2

Manchester United: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
24 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Tottenham

Tottenham away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostLiverpoolLeague Cup15 Sep 20261–3
  • DrawnNottingham Forest5 Sep 20260–0
  • LostBrentford22 Aug 20260–3
  • LostChelsea19 May 20261–2
  • WonAston Villa3 May 20262–1

Tottenham: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
8 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Manchester United
Last match
20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Fulham · Premier League
Next match
3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Atletico Madrid · UEFA Champions League
Tottenham
Last match
21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Aston Villa · Premier League
Next match
9 days after19 Oct 2026 · v Coventry · Premier League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Manchester United

ScoreManchester UnitedLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 15 drawn, 1 lost in 44 matches730 won, 236 drawn, 166 lost in 1132 matches
Conceded first11 won, 7 drawn, 24 lost in 42 matches166 won, 236 drawn, 730 lost in 1132 matches
Level at half-time15 won, 15 drawn, 12 lost in 42 matches296 won, 320 drawn, 296 lost in 912 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches349 won, 126 drawn, 50 lost in 525 matches
Level after 60 minutes8 won, 11 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches207 won, 316 drawn, 207 lost in 730 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes4 won, 4 drawn, 14 lost in 22 matches50 won, 126 drawn, 349 lost in 525 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes15 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches342 won, 112 drawn, 36 lost in 490 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 10 drawn, 4 lost in 21 matches163 won, 350 drawn, 163 lost in 676 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes3 won, 6 drawn, 14 lost in 23 matches36 won, 112 drawn, 342 lost in 490 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes19 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches348 won, 98 drawn, 21 lost in 467 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes2 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches21 won, 98 drawn, 348 lost in 467 matches
Level after 15 minutes29 won, 19 drawn, 16 lost in 64 matches607 won, 448 drawn, 607 lost in 1662 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes15 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches311 won, 103 drawn, 77 lost in 491 matches
Level after 30 minutes19 won, 15 drawn, 13 lost in 47 matches421 won, 378 drawn, 421 lost in 1220 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreManchester UnitedLeague sides
All matches44 scored, 27 conceded (88)861 scored, 861 conceded (2382)
When leading after 75 minutes18 scored, 17 conceded (36)308 scored, 323 conceded (869)
When level after 75 minutes10 scored, 3 conceded (20)230 scored, 230 conceded (644)
When trailing after 75 minutes16 scored, 7 conceded (32)323 scored, 308 conceded (869)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 50 times, equalised within 15 minutes 11, by full time 28(league sides: 1,343 times, within 15 minutes 227, by full time 644)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

Manchester UnitedTottenham
74Matches with xG74
117.22xG for90.39
116Goals scored100
99.02xG against116.08
104Goals conceded122

Manchester United

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Manchester United: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026at Fulham1.601.621–1
13 Sep 2026v Manchester City1.001.100–1
6 Sep 2026at Everton0.691.012–2
30 Aug 2026v Ipswich4.562.015–2
22 Aug 2026at Hull City1.831.010–2
24 May 2026at Brighton1.660.793–0
17 May 2026v Nottingham Forest4.571.883–2
9 May 2026at Sunderland0.621.250–0
3 May 2026v Liverpool2.340.893–2
27 Apr 2026v Brentford1.361.172–1

Tottenham

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Tottenham: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026v Aston Villa1.561.162–3
12 Sep 2026v Everton0.691.110–0
5 Sep 2026at Nottingham Forest1.060.920–0
29 Aug 2026v Newcastle1.120.720–2
22 Aug 2026at Brentford0.573.870–3
24 May 2026v Everton1.150.411–0
19 May 2026at Chelsea1.720.631–2
11 May 2026v Leeds1.271.341–1
3 May 2026at Aston Villa0.990.322–1
25 Apr 2026at Wolves1.050.621–0

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Manchester UnitedTottenham
5 of 5Matches with xG5 of 5
5Points in those matches2
8.11xPts5.89
9.68xG for5.00
6.75xG against7.78

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Manchester United and Tottenham

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Manchester UnitedManchester UnitedK. Darlow (Injury) · P. Dorgu (Hamstring Injury) · T. Heaton (Abdominal strain) · N. Mazraoui (Injury) · B. Sesko (Leg Injury) · M. Ugarte (Knee Injury) · M. de Ligt (Back Injury) · A. Diallo (Injury)
  • TottenhamTottenhamNo injuries or suspensions reported.

Published 10 Oct 2026, 16:37 BST · not changed since

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