Marseille v Le Havre match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Marseille are heavily favoured to win against an injury-depleted Le Havre side, with the model giving the hosts a 65% chance of victory. The expected goal total is 2.99, with Marseille projected to dominate possession and chances.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 65%Marseille win
- 21%Draw
- 14%Le Havre win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
MarseilleLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
Le HavreLast 5: no wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Marseille won 29 of 38 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
- Le Havre won 12 of 21 matches in which they scored first, since 25 Oct 2024.
- Marseille won 6 of the last 6 meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals in 8 of Marseille's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
6 meetings: Marseille 6, draws 0, Le Havre 0
Goals: Marseille 20, Le Havre 5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Le Havre v Marseille | 0–1 |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Marseille v Le Havre | 6–2 |
| 10 May 2025 | Le Havre v Marseille | 1–3 |
| 5 Jan 2025 | Marseille v Le Havre | 5–1 |
| 19 May 2024 | Le Havre v Marseille | 1–2 |
| 8 Oct 2023 | Marseille v Le Havre | 3–0 |
Home and away
MarseilleMarseille at home
Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost
- LostOlympiakos PiraeusUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20260–1
- LostParis Saint Germain20 Sep 20261–2
- LostParis FC6 Sep 20262–3
- WonStrasbourg21 Aug 20264–0
- WonRennes17 May 20263–1
Marseille: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 21 scored, 14 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Le HavreLe Havre away
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- LostLille10 Oct 20260–1
- LostToulouse19 Sep 20262–3
- DrawnLyon29 Aug 20261–1
- WonLorient17 May 20262–0
- DrawnLille3 May 20261–1
Le Havre: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 2 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Marseille- Last match
- 3 days before22 Oct 2026 · v Sturm Graz · UEFA Europa League
- Next match
- 7 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Toulouse · Ligue 1
Le Havre- Last match
- 7 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Auxerre · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 5 days after30 Oct 2026 · v Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Marseille
Since 27 Oct 2024
| Score | Marseille | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 29 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 38 matches | 639 won, 166 drawn, 115 lost in 920 matches |
| Conceded first | 10 won, 3 drawn, 27 lost in 40 matches | 115 won, 166 drawn, 639 lost in 920 matches |
| Level at half-time | 16 won, 2 drawn, 11 lost in 29 matches | 255 won, 276 drawn, 255 lost in 786 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 70 minutes | 19 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 270 won, 7 drawn, 0 lost in 277 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 16 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 320 won, 66 drawn, 8 lost in 394 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 26 won, 6 drawn, 20 lost in 52 matches | 517 won, 354 drawn, 517 lost in 1388 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 18 won, 2 drawn, 17 lost in 37 matches | 352 won, 314 drawn, 352 lost in 1018 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Marseille | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 32 scored, 34 conceded (78) | 659 scored, 659 conceded (1978) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 20 scored, 17 conceded (38) | 277 scored, 222 conceded (710) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 8 conceded (24) | 222 scored, 277 conceded (710) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 40 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 17(league sides: 1,073 times, within 15 minutes 163, by full time 471)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Le Havre
Since 25 Oct 2024
| Score | Le Havre | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 12 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches | 639 won, 166 drawn, 115 lost in 920 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 7 drawn, 30 lost in 40 matches | 115 won, 166 drawn, 639 lost in 920 matches |
| Level at half-time | 8 won, 14 drawn, 11 lost in 33 matches | 255 won, 276 drawn, 255 lost in 786 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 16 drawn, 5 lost in 27 matches | 177 won, 282 drawn, 177 lost in 636 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 2 won, 3 drawn, 18 lost in 23 matches | 31 won, 83 drawn, 315 lost in 429 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 6 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 26 matches | 142 won, 298 drawn, 142 lost in 582 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 2 drawn, 18 lost in 21 matches | 22 won, 79 drawn, 320 lost in 421 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches | 120 won, 334 drawn, 120 lost in 574 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 10 won, 14 drawn, 22 lost in 46 matches | 517 won, 354 drawn, 517 lost in 1388 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 7 won, 12 drawn, 15 lost in 34 matches | 352 won, 314 drawn, 352 lost in 1018 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 2 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches | 62 won, 69 drawn, 266 lost in 397 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Le Havre | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 15 scored, 24 conceded (67) | 659 scored, 659 conceded (1978) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 5 conceded (22) | 160 scored, 160 conceded (558) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 11 conceded (30) | 222 scored, 277 conceded (710) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 15(league sides: 1,073 times, within 15 minutes 163, by full time 471)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Marseille | Le Havre | |
|---|---|---|
| 67Since 27 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 67Since 25 Oct 2024 |
| 125.71 | xG for | 82.55 |
| 130 | Goals scored | 70 |
| 97.39 | xG against | 112.88 |
| 94 | Goals conceded | 107 |
Marseille
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | at Angers | 2.71 | 2.21 | 5–2 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Estac Troyes | 1.30 | 1.06 | 2–0 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Paris Saint Germain | 1.80 | 4.33 | 1–2 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | at Rennes | 1.34 | 1.88 | 0–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Paris FC | 1.42 | 3.29 | 2–3 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Monaco | 1.40 | 1.72 | 0–2 |
| 21 Aug 2026 | v Strasbourg | 1.86 | 0.18 | 4–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Rennes | 2.92 | 2.49 | 3–1 |
| 10 May 2026 | at Le Havre | 1.21 | 1.14 | 1–0 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Nantes | 1.36 | 3.42 | 0–3 |
Le Havre
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Auxerre | 1.40 | 2.70 | 1–3 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Lille | 1.28 | 1.26 | 0–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Toulouse | 2.34 | 1.95 | 2–3 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Angers | 1.31 | 0.59 | 0–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Stade Brestois 29 | 2.02 | 2.37 | 1–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Lyon | 0.69 | 1.75 | 1–1 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v Monaco | 0.60 | 1.39 | 0–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Lorient | 1.25 | 1.30 | 2–0 |
| 10 May 2026 | v Marseille | 1.14 | 1.21 | 0–1 |
| 3 May 2026 | at Lille | 0.14 | 1.55 | 1–1 |
This league season
Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Marseille | Le Havre | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 9 | Points in those matches | 2 |
| 8.92 | xPts | 8.25 |
| 11.83 | xG for | 9.64 |
| 14.67 | xG against | 12.01 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Marseille and Le Havre
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- D. Cornelius (Hip Injury)
- Ruled out
- E. Jelert (Thigh Injury) · F. Mambimbi (Achilles Tendon Injury) · L. Mpasi-Nzau (Achilles Tendon Injury) · T. Pembele (Muscle Injury) · A. Toure (Knee Injury) · S. Zagadou (Knee Injury)
Published 25 Oct 2026, 15:13 GMT · not changed since
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