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Championship
Middlesbrough
2–2Finished
Cardiff
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 12:30 BSTMatchday 11

Middlesbrough v Cardiff match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Middlesbrough are favoured to win with a 54% chance, while a draw is possible at 25%. The model expects 2.92 goals and projects Middlesbrough to have a clear attacking advantage. Cardiff are depleted with several injuries and suspensions affecting their squad depth.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 54%Middlesbrough win
  • 25%Draw
  • 21%Cardiff win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough

Last 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats

CardiffCardiff

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Middlesbrough won 36 of 52 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 321 of 411.
  • Middlesbrough won 6 of the last 8 meetings.
  • Middlesbrough unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

8 meetings: Middlesbrough 6, draws 1, Cardiff 1

Goals: Middlesbrough 18, Cardiff 6

DateMatchScore
4 Jan 2025Middlesbrough v Cardiff1–1
31 Aug 2024Cardiff v Middlesbrough0–2
27 Apr 2024Cardiff v Middlesbrough1–4
3 Oct 2023Middlesbrough v Cardiff2–0
11 Feb 2023Cardiff v Middlesbrough1–3
13 Sep 2022Middlesbrough v Cardiff2–3
27 Apr 2022Middlesbrough v Cardiff2–0
23 Oct 2021Cardiff v Middlesbrough0–2

Home and away

Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough at home

Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonWolves10 Oct 20261–0
  • DrawnMillwall15 Sep 20262–2
  • WonNorwich12 Sep 20264–3
  • WonWest Brom29 Aug 20263–1
  • WonLincoln15 Aug 20262–1

Middlesbrough: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
19 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Cardiff

Cardiff away

Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost

  • LostBlackburn10 Oct 20261–2
  • LostBolton12 Sep 20260–1
  • LostPortsmouth5 Sep 20260–2
  • LostQPR2 Sep 20261–2
  • DrawnDerby22 Aug 20262–2

Cardiff: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Middlesbrough
Last match
4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Stoke City · Championship
Next match
6 days after23 Oct 2026 · v Bolton · Championship
Cardiff
Last match
4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Watford · Championship
Next match
7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Birmingham · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Middlesbrough

ScoreMiddlesbroughLeague sides
Scored first36 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 52 matches1108 won, 345 drawn, 214 lost in 1667 matches
Conceded first6 won, 9 drawn, 21 lost in 36 matches214 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1667 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 16 drawn, 8 lost in 36 matches457 won, 574 drawn, 457 lost in 1488 matches
1 goal down at half-time4 won, 6 drawn, 12 lost in 22 matches94 won, 164 drawn, 504 lost in 762 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 19 drawn, 13 lost in 39 matches342 won, 578 drawn, 342 lost in 1262 matches
Level after 70 minutes8 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 37 matches277 won, 626 drawn, 277 lost in 1180 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes21 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches640 won, 117 drawn, 17 lost in 774 matches
Level after 80 minutes6 won, 23 drawn, 8 lost in 37 matches173 won, 698 drawn, 173 lost in 1044 matches
Level after 15 minutes28 won, 19 drawn, 19 lost in 66 matches917 won, 732 drawn, 917 lost in 2566 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes17 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches434 won, 145 drawn, 106 lost in 685 matches
Level after 30 minutes18 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 47 matches651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreMiddlesbroughLeague sides
All matches30 scored, 29 conceded (96)1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3582)
When leading after 75 minutes15 scored, 11 conceded (37)344 scored, 373 conceded (1247)
When level after 75 minutes9 scored, 12 conceded (37)319 scored, 319 conceded (1088)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 6 conceded (22)373 scored, 344 conceded (1247)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 24(league sides: 1,878 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 833)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

MiddlesbroughCardiff
95Matches with xG47
142.33xG for59.49
146Goals scored60
102.54xG against65.42
111Goals conceded70

Middlesbrough

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Middlesbrough: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
13 Oct 2026at Stoke City2.570.653–2
10 Oct 2026v Wolves0.900.681–0
19 Sep 2026at Birmingham2.141.232–2
15 Sep 2026v Millwall1.521.692–2
12 Sep 2026v Norwich2.381.764–3
5 Sep 2026at QPR2.531.031–0
2 Sep 2026at Burnley1.220.641–1
29 Aug 2026v West Brom2.551.323–1
22 Aug 2026at Blackburn1.430.911–2
15 Aug 2026v Lincoln2.230.572–1

Cardiff

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Cardiff: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
13 Oct 2026v Watford3.671.465–1
10 Oct 2026at Blackburn1.052.421–2
19 Sep 2026v Charlton2.601.263–1
12 Sep 2026at Bolton1.790.480–1
8 Sep 2026v Stoke City2.920.751–1
5 Sep 2026at Portsmouth1.372.070–2
2 Sep 2026at QPR0.602.091–2
29 Aug 2026v Sheffield Utd2.241.282–2
22 Aug 2026at Derby1.981.622–2
17 Aug 2026v Wrexham0.901.431–1

Middlesbrough: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

MiddlesbroughCardiff
10 of 10Matches with xG10 of 10
21Points in those matches10
19.34xPts16.07
19.47xG for19.12
10.48xG against14.86

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Middlesbrough and Cardiff

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough
    Ruled out
    A. Jones (Calf Injury) · R. Pukstas (Injury) · D. Strelec (Injury)
  • CardiffCardiff
    Ruled out
    C. Chambers (Knee Injury) · R. Colwill (Ankle Injury) · D. Lawlor (Hamstring Injury)
    Doubtful
    Y. Salech (Inactive)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 11:27 BST · not changed since

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