Middlesbrough v Wolves match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 60%Middlesbrough win
- 23%Draw
- 17%Wolves win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
MiddlesbroughLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
WolvesLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
Head-to-head
Head-to-head data was not available for this match.
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Middlesbrough won 34 of 50 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 317 of 404.
- Middlesbrough unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Wolves's last 10 away league games.
Home and away
MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough at home
Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
- DrawnMillwall15 Sep 20262–2
- WonNorwich12 Sep 20264–3
- WonWest Brom29 Aug 20263–1
- WonLincoln15 Aug 20262–1
- WonWrexhamLeague Cup7 Aug 20261–0
Middlesbrough: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 19 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
WolvesWolves away
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- LostEvertonLeague Cup16 Sep 20260–1
- WonSheffield Utd13 Sep 20261–0
- DrawnBirmingham6 Sep 20262–2
- LostWest Ham1 Sep 20262–4
- WonSheffield WednesdayLeague Cup25 Aug 20262–0
Wolves: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 21 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Middlesbrough- Last match
- 21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Birmingham · Championship
- Next match
- 3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Stoke City · Championship
Wolves- Last match
- 20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v West Brom · Championship
- Next match
- 3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Bolton · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Middlesbrough
| Score | Middlesbrough | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 34 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 50 matches | 1090 won, 342 drawn, 211 lost in 1643 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 9 drawn, 21 lost in 36 matches | 211 won, 342 drawn, 1090 lost in 1643 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 16 drawn, 8 lost in 34 matches | 450 won, 572 drawn, 450 lost in 1472 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 4 won, 6 drawn, 12 lost in 22 matches | 93 won, 162 drawn, 496 lost in 751 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 19 drawn, 13 lost in 38 matches | 336 won, 576 drawn, 336 lost in 1248 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 36 matches | 271 won, 624 drawn, 271 lost in 1166 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 19 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 629 won, 115 drawn, 17 lost in 761 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 6 won, 23 drawn, 8 lost in 37 matches | 170 won, 696 drawn, 170 lost in 1036 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 26 won, 19 drawn, 19 lost in 64 matches | 898 won, 730 drawn, 898 lost in 2526 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 17 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches | 430 won, 144 drawn, 104 lost in 678 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 16 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 45 matches | 638 won, 622 drawn, 638 lost in 1898 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Middlesbrough | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 29 scored, 28 conceded (94) | 1017 scored, 1017 conceded (3534) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 10 conceded (35) | 336 scored, 365 conceded (1227) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 12 conceded (37) | 316 scored, 316 conceded (1080) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 6 conceded (22) | 365 scored, 336 conceded (1227) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 41 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 24(league sides: 1,851 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 822)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Middlesbrough | Wolves | |
|---|---|---|
| 93Since 19 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 76Since 20 Oct 2024 |
| 138.86 | xG for | 86.53 |
| 142 | Goals scored | 87 |
| 101.21 | xG against | 109.90 |
| 109 | Goals conceded | 126 |
Middlesbrough
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Birmingham | 2.14 | 1.23 | 2–2 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | v Millwall | 1.52 | 1.69 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Norwich | 2.38 | 1.76 | 4–3 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at QPR | 2.53 | 1.03 | 1–0 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | at Burnley | 1.22 | 0.64 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v West Brom | 2.55 | 1.32 | 3–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Blackburn | 1.43 | 0.91 | 1–2 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Lincoln | 2.23 | 0.57 | 2–1 |
| 23 May 2026 | at Hull City | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0–1 |
| 9 May 2026 | v Southampton | 1.81 | 0.58 | 0–0 |
Wolves
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | v West Brom | 1.95 | 0.29 | 1–0 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Sheffield Utd | 1.57 | 0.63 | 1–0 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Birmingham | 2.47 | 1.39 | 2–2 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | at West Ham | 0.94 | 2.05 | 2–4 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Stoke City | 2.66 | 0.83 | 4–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Preston | 1.54 | 0.66 | 3–1 |
| 14 Aug 2026 | v Blackburn | 2.04 | 0.82 | 2–2 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Burnley | 2.09 | 0.98 | 1–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Fulham | 1.40 | 1.59 | 1–1 |
| 9 May 2026 | at Brighton | 0.49 | 1.62 | 0–3 |
Middlesbrough: 1 without xG left out
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Middlesbrough | Wolves | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 15 | Points in those matches | 14 |
| 15.32 | xPts | 13.90 |
| 16.00 | xG for | 13.17 |
| 9.15 | xG against | 6.67 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Middlesbrough and Wolves
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 10 Oct 2026, 14:07 BST · not changed since
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