Millwall v Lincoln match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Millwall are the model's home favourites with a 47% chance of winning, though Lincoln's recent two-game winning streak makes this less clear-cut than the headline percentage suggests. Expect around 2.5 goals with Millwall edging the expected chances.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 47%Millwall win
- 28%Draw
- 25%Lincoln win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
MillwallLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
LincolnLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
Head-to-head
Head-to-head data was not available for this match.
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Millwall won 40 of 53 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Championship, since 4 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 321 of 411.
- Not both teams scored in 7 of Millwall's last 10 home league games.
Home and away
MillwallMillwall at home
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- LostSwansea13 Oct 20260–1
- DrawnWest Ham19 Sep 20262–2
- LostNewcastleLeague Cup8 Sep 20260–1
- WonBolton5 Sep 20264–0
- LostWrexham2 Sep 20260–3
Millwall: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 15 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 3 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
LincolnLincoln away
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- LostSheffield Utd10 Oct 20260–3
- WonBristol City15 Sep 20261–0
- WonPreston12 Sep 20261–0
- LostBournemouthLeague Cup8 Sep 20260–4
- WonBolton29 Aug 20261–0
Lincoln: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 14 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Millwall- Last match
- 4 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Swansea · Championship
- Next match
- 7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Portsmouth · Championship
Lincoln- Last match
- 3 days before14 Oct 2026 · v West Ham · Championship
- Next match
- 7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Burnley · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Millwall
| Score | Millwall | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 40 won, 9 drawn, 4 lost in 53 matches | 1108 won, 345 drawn, 214 lost in 1667 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 9 drawn, 24 lost in 37 matches | 214 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1667 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 21 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches | 504 won, 164 drawn, 94 lost in 762 matches |
| Level at half-time | 17 won, 13 drawn, 13 lost in 43 matches | 457 won, 574 drawn, 457 lost in 1488 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 19 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches | 534 won, 169 drawn, 64 lost in 767 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 15 won, 16 drawn, 5 lost in 36 matches | 342 won, 578 drawn, 342 lost in 1262 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 21 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches | 560 won, 149 drawn, 44 lost in 753 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 11 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 31 matches | 277 won, 626 drawn, 277 lost in 1180 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 22 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches | 640 won, 117 drawn, 17 lost in 774 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 11 won, 16 drawn, 2 lost in 29 matches | 173 won, 698 drawn, 173 lost in 1044 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches | 17 won, 117 drawn, 640 lost in 774 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 37 won, 16 drawn, 20 lost in 73 matches | 917 won, 732 drawn, 917 lost in 2566 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 28 won, 15 drawn, 17 lost in 60 matches | 651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Millwall | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 32 scored, 30 conceded (95) | 1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3582) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 8 conceded (38) | 344 scored, 373 conceded (1247) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 16 scored, 8 conceded (31) | 319 scored, 319 conceded (1088) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 14 conceded (26) | 373 scored, 344 conceded (1247) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 38 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 14(league sides: 1,878 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 833)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Millwall | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|
| 95 | Matches with xG | — |
| 122.67 | xG for | — |
| 115 | Goals scored | — |
| 116.79 | xG against | — |
| 105 | Goals conceded | — |
Millwall
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | v Swansea | 1.05 | 1.82 | 0–1 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Preston | 1.09 | 0.65 | 1–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v West Ham | 2.68 | 1.87 | 2–2 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | at Middlesbrough | 1.69 | 1.52 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Blackburn | 1.67 | 1.23 | 1–3 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Bolton | 2.65 | 0.95 | 4–0 |
| 2 Sep 2026 | v Wrexham | 0.23 | 0.88 | 0–3 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Southampton | 1.35 | 3.62 | 1–5 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Norwich | 2.69 | 1.02 | 3–0 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Bristol City | 3.40 | 0.52 | 2–0 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Millwall | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 of 10 | Matches with xG | 10 of 10 |
| 14 | Points in those matches | 11 |
| 16.14 | xPts | 14.31 |
| 18.50 | xG for | 13.02 |
| 14.08 | xG against | 13.28 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Millwall and Lincoln
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- J. Coburn (Muscle Injury) · C. De Norre (Muscle Injury) · R. Esse (Ankle Injury) · M. Ivanovic (Hamstring Injury) · L. Jensen (Muscle Injury) · M. Luongo (Knee Injury) · M. Servais (Inactive)
- Doubtful
- T. Arconte (Ankle Injury)
- Ruled out
- T. Darikwa (Knee Injury) · T. Hamer (Red Card) · C. McGrandles (Red Card) · M. Melia (Thigh Injury)
- Doubtful
- R. Hackett-Fairchild (Inactive)
Published 17 Oct 2026, 11:27 BST · not changed since
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