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Millwall
0–1Finished
Swansea
Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 19:45 BSTMatchday 10

Millwall v Swansea match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Tue 13 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Millwall hold a 42% model chance of victory at home, but Swansea's strong form—three wins in five—suggests this will be close. The model expects 2.39 goals, with both teams weakened by multiple injuries.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 42%Millwall win
  • 29%Draw
  • 29%Swansea win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

MillwallMillwall

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

SwanseaSwansea

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Millwall won 40 of 53 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Swansea won 32 of 43 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Millwall won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Swansea's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Millwall 5, draws 3, Swansea 2

Goals: Millwall 10, Swansea 9

DateMatchScore
4 Jan 2026Millwall v Swansea2–1
27 Sep 2025Swansea v Millwall1–1
26 Apr 2025Millwall v Swansea1–0
26 Oct 2024Swansea v Millwall0–1
4 May 2024Swansea v Millwall0–1
30 Sep 2023Millwall v Swansea0–3
14 Mar 2023Millwall v Swansea2–1
16 Aug 2022Swansea v Millwall2–2
5 Apr 2022Millwall v Swansea0–1
15 Sep 2021Swansea v Millwall0–0

Home and away

Millwall

Millwall at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnWest Ham19 Sep 20262–2
  • LostNewcastleLeague Cup8 Sep 20260–1
  • WonBolton5 Sep 20264–0
  • LostWrexham2 Sep 20260–3
  • WonNorwich22 Aug 20263–0

Millwall: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
3 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10
Swansea

Swansea away

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonLincoln19 Sep 20262–1
  • LostSouthampton8 Sep 20261–3
  • WonDerby29 Aug 20263–0
  • WonStoke City15 Aug 20262–1
  • DrawnNorwich25 Apr 20261–1

Swansea: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Millwall
Last match
3 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Preston · Championship
Next match
4 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Lincoln · Championship
Swansea
Last match
3 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Norwich · Championship
Next match
4 days after17 Oct 2026 · v West Ham · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Millwall

ScoreMillwallLeague sides
Scored first40 won, 9 drawn, 4 lost in 53 matches1098 won, 344 drawn, 212 lost in 1654 matches
Conceded first4 won, 9 drawn, 23 lost in 36 matches212 won, 344 drawn, 1098 lost in 1654 matches
1 goal up at half-time21 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches500 won, 163 drawn, 94 lost in 757 matches
Level at half-time17 won, 13 drawn, 12 lost in 42 matches452 won, 574 drawn, 452 lost in 1478 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes19 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches531 won, 168 drawn, 64 lost in 763 matches
Level after 60 minutes15 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 35 matches337 won, 578 drawn, 337 lost in 1252 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes21 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches558 won, 148 drawn, 43 lost in 749 matches
Level after 70 minutes11 won, 17 drawn, 2 lost in 30 matches272 won, 626 drawn, 272 lost in 1170 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes22 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches635 won, 116 drawn, 17 lost in 768 matches
Level after 80 minutes11 won, 16 drawn, 1 lost in 28 matches170 won, 698 drawn, 170 lost in 1038 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches17 won, 116 drawn, 635 lost in 768 matches
Level after 15 minutes37 won, 16 drawn, 19 lost in 72 matches906 won, 730 drawn, 906 lost in 2542 matches
Level after 30 minutes28 won, 15 drawn, 16 lost in 59 matches643 won, 624 drawn, 643 lost in 1910 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreMillwallLeague sides
All matches32 scored, 29 conceded (94)1022 scored, 1022 conceded (3556)
When leading after 75 minutes12 scored, 8 conceded (38)338 scored, 367 conceded (1236)
When level after 75 minutes16 scored, 7 conceded (30)317 scored, 317 conceded (1084)
When trailing after 75 minutes4 scored, 14 conceded (26)367 scored, 338 conceded (1236)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 38 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 14(league sides: 1,862 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 825)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Swansea

ScoreSwanseaLeague sides
Scored first32 won, 5 drawn, 6 lost in 43 matches1098 won, 344 drawn, 212 lost in 1654 matches
Conceded first6 won, 9 drawn, 29 lost in 44 matches212 won, 344 drawn, 1098 lost in 1654 matches
Level at half-time17 won, 12 drawn, 9 lost in 38 matches452 won, 574 drawn, 452 lost in 1478 matches
1 goal down at half-time3 won, 5 drawn, 13 lost in 21 matches94 won, 163 drawn, 500 lost in 757 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes18 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches531 won, 168 drawn, 64 lost in 763 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 8 drawn, 11 lost in 28 matches337 won, 578 drawn, 337 lost in 1252 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches64 won, 168 drawn, 531 lost in 763 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes21 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 26 matches558 won, 148 drawn, 43 lost in 749 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 11 drawn, 10 lost in 27 matches272 won, 626 drawn, 272 lost in 1170 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes23 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches635 won, 116 drawn, 17 lost in 768 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 13 drawn, 6 lost in 22 matches170 won, 698 drawn, 170 lost in 1038 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches17 won, 116 drawn, 635 lost in 768 matches
Level after 15 minutes26 won, 16 drawn, 24 lost in 66 matches906 won, 730 drawn, 906 lost in 2542 matches
Level after 30 minutes19 won, 12 drawn, 18 lost in 49 matches643 won, 624 drawn, 643 lost in 1910 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSwanseaLeague sides
All matches24 scored, 28 conceded (92)1022 scored, 1022 conceded (3556)
When leading after 75 minutes10 scored, 6 conceded (36)338 scored, 367 conceded (1236)
When level after 75 minutes6 scored, 11 conceded (25)317 scored, 317 conceded (1084)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 11 conceded (31)367 scored, 338 conceded (1236)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 22(league sides: 1,862 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 825)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

MillwallSwansea
94Matches with xG92
121.62xG for114.16
115Goals scored115
114.97xG against111.44
104Goals conceded116

Millwall

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Millwall: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at Preston1.090.651–0
19 Sep 2026v West Ham2.681.872–2
15 Sep 2026at Middlesbrough1.691.522–2
12 Sep 2026at Blackburn1.671.231–3
5 Sep 2026v Bolton2.650.954–0
2 Sep 2026v Wrexham0.230.880–3
29 Aug 2026at Southampton1.353.621–5
22 Aug 2026v Norwich2.691.023–0
15 Aug 2026at Bristol City3.400.522–0
11 May 2026v Hull City0.872.120–2

Swansea

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Swansea: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Norwich2.360.682–1
19 Sep 2026at Lincoln0.922.112–1
12 Sep 2026v Burnley2.631.733–1
8 Sep 2026at Southampton1.221.441–3
5 Sep 2026v Wrexham0.740.670–0
1 Sep 2026v Watford2.710.882–0
29 Aug 2026at Derby3.000.703–0
22 Aug 2026v Sheffield Utd0.571.460–0
15 Aug 2026at Stoke City0.620.652–1
2 May 2026v Charlton1.160.963–1

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

MillwallSwansea
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
14Points in those matches20
15.26xPts14.55
17.45xG for14.77
12.26xG against10.32

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Millwall and Swansea

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • MillwallMillwall
    Ruled out
    J. Coburn (Muscle Injury) · C. De Norre (Muscle Injury) · M. Ivanovic (Hamstring Injury) · L. Jensen (Muscle Injury) · M. Luongo (Knee Injury)
  • SwanseaSwansea
    Ruled out
    C. Burgess (Achilles Tendon Injury) · S. Eustaquio (Injury) · J. Key (Health problems)

Published 13 Oct 2026, 18:38 BST · not changed since

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