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Ligue 1
Monaco
1–1Finished
Lille
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 14:00 GMTMatchday 8 · Stade Louis II, Monaco

Monaco v Lille match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Monaco are favoured at 46% to win this Ligue 1 clash, with Lille at 27% despite their recent poor form. The model expects 2.71 goals total; Lille arrive severely depleted by five absences.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 46%Monaco win
  • 27%Draw
  • 27%Lille win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

MonacoMonaco

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

LilleLille

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Monaco won 28 of 40 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
  • Lille won 37 of 50 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
  • Lille won 5 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Monaco unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Monaco 2, draws 3, Lille 5

Goals: Monaco 9, Lille 13

DateMatchScore
10 May 2026Monaco v Lille0–1
24 Aug 2025Lille v Monaco1–0
22 Feb 2025Lille v Monaco2–1
18 Oct 2024Monaco v Lille0–0
24 Apr 2024Monaco v Lille1–0
29 Oct 2023Lille v Monaco2–0
14 May 2023Monaco v Lille0–0
23 Oct 2022Lille v Monaco4–3
6 May 2022Lille v Monaco1–2
19 Nov 2021Monaco v Lille2–2

Home and away

Monaco

Monaco at home

Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonSC FreiburgUEFA Europa Conference League22 Oct 20263–0
  • DrawnToulouse10 Oct 20262–2
  • WonLens18 Sep 20262–1
  • WonMarseille30 Aug 20262–0
  • WonGornik ZabrzeUEFA Europa Conference League27 Aug 20264–1

Monaco: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
21 scored, 8 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Lille

Lille away

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostArsenalUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20260–3
  • LostNice20 Sep 20261–2
  • WonToulouse3 Sep 20261–0
  • WonAngers23 Aug 20262–0
  • WonMonaco10 May 20261–0

Lille: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 4 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
3 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
7 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Monaco
Last match
3 days before22 Oct 2026 · v SC Freiburg · UEFA Europa Conference League
Next match
7 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Paris FC · Ligue 1
Lille
Last match
4 days before21 Oct 2026 · v Galatasaray · UEFA Champions League
Next match
5 days after30 Oct 2026 · v Lens · Ligue 1

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Monaco

Since 27 Oct 2024

ScoreMonacoLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 6 drawn, 6 lost in 40 matches639 won, 166 drawn, 115 lost in 920 matches
Conceded first8 won, 7 drawn, 23 lost in 38 matches115 won, 166 drawn, 639 lost in 920 matches
1 goal up at half-time15 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches317 won, 84 drawn, 43 lost in 444 matches
Level at half-time12 won, 9 drawn, 11 lost in 32 matches255 won, 276 drawn, 255 lost in 786 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 31 matches177 won, 282 drawn, 177 lost in 636 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes15 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches320 won, 79 drawn, 22 lost in 421 matches
Level after 70 minutes9 won, 12 drawn, 8 lost in 29 matches142 won, 298 drawn, 142 lost in 582 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes15 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches320 won, 66 drawn, 8 lost in 394 matches
Level after 80 minutes7 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 28 matches120 won, 334 drawn, 120 lost in 574 matches
Level after 15 minutes24 won, 14 drawn, 22 lost in 60 matches517 won, 354 drawn, 517 lost in 1388 matches
Level after 30 minutes22 won, 10 drawn, 16 lost in 48 matches352 won, 314 drawn, 352 lost in 1018 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreMonacoLeague sides
All matches29 scored, 31 conceded (84)659 scored, 659 conceded (1978)
When leading after 75 minutes11 scored, 12 conceded (35)277 scored, 222 conceded (710)
When level after 75 minutes9 scored, 8 conceded (25)160 scored, 160 conceded (558)
When trailing after 75 minutes9 scored, 11 conceded (24)222 scored, 277 conceded (710)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 24(league sides: 1,073 times, within 15 minutes 163, by full time 471)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Lille

Since 26 Oct 2024

ScoreLilleLeague sides
Scored first37 won, 9 drawn, 4 lost in 50 matches639 won, 166 drawn, 115 lost in 920 matches
Conceded first5 won, 6 drawn, 24 lost in 35 matches115 won, 166 drawn, 639 lost in 920 matches
1 goal up at half-time21 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost in 30 matches317 won, 84 drawn, 43 lost in 444 matches
Level at half-time14 won, 9 drawn, 9 lost in 32 matches255 won, 276 drawn, 255 lost in 786 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches315 won, 83 drawn, 31 lost in 429 matches
Level after 60 minutes16 won, 9 drawn, 7 lost in 32 matches177 won, 282 drawn, 177 lost in 636 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches31 won, 83 drawn, 315 lost in 429 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes18 won, 6 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches320 won, 79 drawn, 22 lost in 421 matches
Level after 70 minutes13 won, 8 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches142 won, 298 drawn, 142 lost in 582 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes21 won, 5 drawn, 0 lost in 26 matches320 won, 66 drawn, 8 lost in 394 matches
Level after 80 minutes8 won, 11 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches120 won, 334 drawn, 120 lost in 574 matches
Level after 15 minutes31 won, 16 drawn, 20 lost in 67 matches517 won, 354 drawn, 517 lost in 1388 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes17 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 26 matches266 won, 69 drawn, 62 lost in 397 matches
Level after 30 minutes22 won, 9 drawn, 15 lost in 46 matches352 won, 314 drawn, 352 lost in 1018 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreLilleLeague sides
All matches44 scored, 16 conceded (88)659 scored, 659 conceded (1978)
When leading after 75 minutes16 scored, 8 conceded (34)277 scored, 222 conceded (710)
When level after 75 minutes15 scored, 3 conceded (24)160 scored, 160 conceded (558)
When trailing after 75 minutes13 scored, 5 conceded (30)222 scored, 277 conceded (710)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 40 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 14(league sides: 1,073 times, within 15 minutes 163, by full time 471)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

MonacoLille
67Since 27 Oct 2024Matches with xG67Since 26 Oct 2024
124.78xG for107.74
119Goals scored101
89.22xG against80.71
97Goals conceded70

Monaco

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Monaco: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
18 Oct 2026at Lorient0.601.740–1
10 Oct 2026v Toulouse1.171.432–2
18 Sep 2026v Lens1.751.192–1
12 Sep 2026at Strasbourg1.051.021–1
4 Sep 2026at Paris Saint Germain0.512.322–1
30 Aug 2026v Marseille1.721.402–0
23 Aug 2026at Le Havre1.390.601–0
17 May 2026at Strasbourg1.131.504–5
10 May 2026v Lille0.370.390–1
2 May 2026at Metz1.251.222–1

Lille

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Lille: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026v Stade Brestois 292.250.841–1
10 Oct 2026v Le Havre1.261.281–0
20 Sep 2026at Nice1.581.501–2
13 Sep 2026v Estac Troyes1.650.382–0
3 Sep 2026at Toulouse1.213.461–0
28 Aug 2026v Paris Saint Germain1.271.442–2
23 Aug 2026at Angers1.241.992–0
17 May 2026v Auxerre1.720.540–2
10 May 2026at Monaco0.390.371–0
3 May 2026v Le Havre1.550.141–1

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

MonacoLille
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
14Points in those matches14
8.81xPts9.92
8.19xG for10.46
9.70xG against10.89

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Monaco and Lille

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • MonacoMonaco
    Ruled out
    S. Idumbo (Groin Injury)
    Doubtful
    E. Dier (Muscle Injury)
  • LilleLille
    Ruled out
    H. Igamane (Knee Injury) · T. Santos (Knee Injury) · A. Ueda (Foot Injury)

Published 25 Oct 2026, 12:58 GMT · not changed since

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