Monaco v Toulouse match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 48%Monaco win
- 25%Draw
- 27%Toulouse win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
MonacoLast 5: 3 wins, 2 draws, no defeats
ToulouseLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Monaco won 31 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 18 Oct 2024.
- Toulouse won 22 of 29 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Monaco won 4 of the last 8 meetings.
- Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Toulouse's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
8 meetings: Monaco 4, draws 2, Toulouse 2
Goals: Monaco 12, Toulouse 8
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Toulouse v Monaco | 2–2 |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Monaco v Toulouse | 1–0 |
| 7 Mar 2025 | Toulouse v Monaco | 1–1 |
| 7 Dec 2024 | Monaco v Toulouse | 2–0 |
| 18 Feb 2024 | Monaco v Toulouse | 1–2 |
| 20 Dec 2023 | Toulouse v Monaco | 1–2 |
| 3 Jun 2023 | Monaco v Toulouse | 1–2 |
| 6 Nov 2022 | Toulouse v Monaco | 0–2 |
Home and away
MonacoMonaco at home
Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost
- WonLens18 Sep 20262–1
- WonMarseille30 Aug 20262–0
- WonGornik ZabrzeUEFA Europa Conference League27 Aug 20264–1
- LostLille10 May 20260–1
- DrawnAuxerre19 Apr 20262–2
Monaco: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 20 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
ToulouseToulouse away
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- DrawnLorient12 Sep 20262–2
- DrawnStade Brestois 2929 Aug 20262–2
- WonStrasbourg3 May 20262–1
- LostLensCoupe de France21 Apr 20261–4
- LostLens17 Apr 20262–3
Toulouse: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 16 scored, 18 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 7 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Monaco- Last match
- 22 days before18 Sep 2026 · v Lens · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 5 days after15 Oct 2026 · v CSKA Sofia · UEFA Europa Conference League
Toulouse- Last match
- 21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Le Havre · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 6 days after16 Oct 2026 · v Le Mans · Ligue 1
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Monaco
Since 18 Oct 2024
| Score | Monaco | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 31 won, 5 drawn, 6 lost in 42 matches | 629 won, 164 drawn, 109 lost in 902 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 7 drawn, 23 lost in 38 matches | 109 won, 164 drawn, 629 lost in 902 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 17 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches | 311 won, 83 drawn, 40 lost in 434 matches |
| Level at half-time | 13 won, 10 drawn, 10 lost in 33 matches | 249 won, 276 drawn, 249 lost in 774 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 6 won, 4 drawn, 10 lost in 20 matches | 40 won, 83 drawn, 311 lost in 434 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 10 won, 12 drawn, 9 lost in 31 matches | 173 won, 280 drawn, 173 lost in 626 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 16 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 22 matches | 313 won, 79 drawn, 21 lost in 413 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 10 won, 12 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches | 139 won, 294 drawn, 139 lost in 572 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 17 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches | 313 won, 66 drawn, 8 lost in 387 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 7 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 28 matches | 116 won, 330 drawn, 116 lost in 562 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 26 won, 14 drawn, 21 lost in 61 matches | 507 won, 352 drawn, 507 lost in 1366 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 24 won, 11 drawn, 15 lost in 50 matches | 342 won, 314 drawn, 342 lost in 998 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Monaco | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 32 scored, 32 conceded (87) | 643 scored, 643 conceded (1942) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 13 conceded (38) | 270 scored, 219 conceded (698) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 8 conceded (25) | 154 scored, 154 conceded (546) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 11 conceded (24) | 219 scored, 270 conceded (698) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 24(league sides: 1,049 times, within 15 minutes 158, by full time 458)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Toulouse
Since 20 Oct 2024
| Score | Toulouse | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 22 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost in 29 matches | 629 won, 164 drawn, 109 lost in 902 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 10 drawn, 22 lost in 35 matches | 109 won, 164 drawn, 629 lost in 902 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 8 drawn, 10 lost in 28 matches | 249 won, 276 drawn, 249 lost in 774 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 1 won, 7 drawn, 16 lost in 24 matches | 28 won, 82 drawn, 310 lost in 420 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 11 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches | 139 won, 294 drawn, 139 lost in 572 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 5 drawn, 16 lost in 22 matches | 21 won, 79 drawn, 313 lost in 413 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 1 won, 7 drawn, 19 lost in 27 matches | 8 won, 66 drawn, 313 lost in 387 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 17 won, 13 drawn, 20 lost in 50 matches | 507 won, 352 drawn, 507 lost in 1366 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 11 won, 12 drawn, 14 lost in 37 matches | 342 won, 314 drawn, 342 lost in 998 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Toulouse | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 27 scored, 18 conceded (68) | 643 scored, 643 conceded (1942) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 10 conceded (30) | 219 scored, 270 conceded (698) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 20(league sides: 1,049 times, within 15 minutes 158, by full time 458)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Monaco | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| 66Since 18 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 65Since 20 Oct 2024 |
| 124.24 | xG for | 93.92 |
| 117 | Goals scored | 92 |
| 86.30 | xG against | 83.36 |
| 94 | Goals conceded | 88 |
Monaco
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | v Lens | 1.75 | 1.19 | 2–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Strasbourg | 1.05 | 1.02 | 1–1 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | at Paris Saint Germain | 0.51 | 2.32 | 2–1 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Marseille | 1.72 | 1.40 | 2–0 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Le Havre | 1.39 | 0.60 | 1–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Strasbourg | 1.13 | 1.50 | 4–5 |
| 10 May 2026 | v Lille | 0.37 | 0.39 | 0–1 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Metz | 1.25 | 1.22 | 2–1 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | at Toulouse | 0.74 | 1.75 | 2–2 |
| 19 Apr 2026 | v Auxerre | 2.24 | 0.65 | 2–2 |
Toulouse
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Le Havre | 1.95 | 2.34 | 3–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Lorient | 1.63 | 0.93 | 2–2 |
| 3 Sep 2026 | v Lille | 3.46 | 1.21 | 0–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Stade Brestois 29 | 1.14 | 3.04 | 2–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Lyon | 2.77 | 0.70 | 0–2 |
| 10 May 2026 | v Lyon | 1.13 | 1.54 | 2–1 |
| 3 May 2026 | at Strasbourg | 1.36 | 0.41 | 2–1 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | v Monaco | 1.75 | 0.74 | 2–2 |
| 17 Apr 2026 | at Lens | 0.41 | 3.76 | 2–3 |
| 12 Apr 2026 | v Lille | 0.96 | 2.30 | 0–4 |
This league season
Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Monaco | Toulouse | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of 5 | Matches with xG | 5 of 5 |
| 13 | Points in those matches | 5 |
| 7.02 | xPts | 8.55 |
| 6.42 | xG for | 10.95 |
| 6.53 | xG against | 8.22 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Monaco and Toulouse
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 10 Oct 2026, 19:12 BST · not changed since
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