Monza v Cagliari match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Mon 19 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Monza and Cagliari are evenly matched according to the model. Cagliari arrive in better form with three wins in their last four games, while Monza have won once in their last five matches. The expected total is 2.41 goals.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 35%Monza win
- 29%Draw
- 36%Cagliari win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
MonzaLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
CagliariLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Serie A, since 19 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 215 of 270.
- Cagliari won 17 of 28 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Cagliari won 2 of the last 4 meetings.
- Cagliari unbeaten in their last 5 away games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
4 meetings: Monza 1, draws 1, Cagliari 2
Goals: Monza 3, Cagliari 6
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Mar 2025 | Cagliari v Monza | 3–0 |
| 5 Jan 2025 | Monza v Cagliari | 1–2 |
| 16 Mar 2024 | Monza v Cagliari | 1–0 |
| 26 Nov 2023 | Cagliari v Monza | 1–1 |
Home and away
MonzaMonza at home
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- WonSassuolo18 Sep 20262–1
- LostUdinese29 Aug 20262–3
- WonAvellinoCoppa Italia14 Aug 20263–0
- LostCatanzaroSerie B · Italy29 May 20260–2
- WonJuve StabiaSerie B · Italy19 May 20262–1
Monza: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 17 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
CagliariCagliari away
Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
- WonUdinese19 Sep 20261–0
- WonAtalanta12 Sep 20262–1
- WonParma22 Aug 20261–0
- WonAC Milan24 May 20262–1
- DrawnBologna3 May 20260–0
Cagliari: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Monza- Last match
- 8 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Lazio · Serie A
- Next match
- 4 days after23 Oct 2026 · v Torino · Serie A
Cagliari- Last match
- 8 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Juventus · Serie A
- Next match
- 5 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Bologna · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 20 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Cagliari
| Score | Cagliari | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 17 won, 6 drawn, 5 lost in 28 matches | 753 won, 236 drawn, 124 lost in 1113 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 6 drawn, 30 lost in 42 matches | 124 won, 236 drawn, 753 lost in 1113 matches |
| Level at half-time | 15 won, 10 drawn, 13 lost in 38 matches | 319 won, 394 drawn, 319 lost in 1032 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 1 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 23 matches | 56 won, 121 drawn, 332 lost in 509 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 12 drawn, 10 lost in 31 matches | 237 won, 406 drawn, 237 lost in 880 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 1 won, 2 drawn, 20 lost in 23 matches | 34 won, 111 drawn, 370 lost in 515 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 4 drawn, 22 lost in 27 matches | 22 won, 94 drawn, 388 lost in 504 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 17 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches | 432 won, 84 drawn, 11 lost in 527 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 5 drawn, 20 lost in 25 matches | 11 won, 84 drawn, 432 lost in 527 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 18 won, 16 drawn, 23 lost in 57 matches | 613 won, 534 drawn, 613 lost in 1760 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 16 won, 11 drawn, 17 lost in 44 matches | 447 won, 424 drawn, 447 lost in 1318 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Cagliari | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 17 scored, 20 conceded (75) | 699 scored, 699 conceded (2416) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 5 conceded (24) | 246 scored, 224 conceded (819) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 10 conceded (35) | 224 scored, 246 conceded (819) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 52 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 22(league sides: 1,240 times, within 15 minutes 182, by full time 550)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Monza | Cagliari | |
|---|---|---|
| 37Since 21 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 75Since 20 Oct 2024 |
| 38.36 | xG for | 76.71 |
| 32 | Goals scored | 81 |
| 54.75 | xG against | 108.79 |
| 75 | Goals conceded | 101 |
Monza
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Lazio | 1.76 | 1.84 | 1–3 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | v Sassuolo | 1.51 | 1.47 | 2–1 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Lecce | 2.79 | 1.08 | 2–3 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Parma | 1.72 | 0.73 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Udinese | 1.70 | 0.98 | 2–3 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Inter | 1.23 | 1.05 | 1–4 |
| 24 May 2025 | at AC Milan | 0.34 | 1.49 | 0–2 |
| 18 May 2025 | v Empoli | 1.15 | 1.27 | 1–3 |
| 11 May 2025 | at Udinese | 1.60 | 1.64 | 2–1 |
| 4 May 2025 | v Atalanta | 0.81 | 2.47 | 0–4 |
Cagliari
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Juventus | 0.52 | 1.95 | 1–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Udinese | 1.12 | 2.13 | 1–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Atalanta | 1.32 | 1.74 | 2–1 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | v Lecce | 1.61 | 0.50 | 1–0 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Inter | 0.48 | 3.67 | 0–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Parma | 0.94 | 0.75 | 1–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | at AC Milan | 2.78 | 1.74 | 2–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Torino | 1.32 | 0.99 | 2–1 |
| 9 May 2026 | v Udinese | 1.47 | 2.47 | 0–2 |
| 3 May 2026 | at Bologna | 1.07 | 0.53 | 0–0 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Monza | Cagliari | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 of 6 | Matches with xG | 6 of 6 |
| 4 | Points in those matches | 13 |
| 10.51 | xPts | 6.14 |
| 10.71 | xG for | 5.99 |
| 7.15 | xG against | 10.74 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Monza and Cagliari
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- L. Lucchesi (Red Card) · Y. Maye (Muscle Injury) · M. Pessina (Knee Injury) · I. Toure (Knee Injury) · E. Zeballos (Knee Injury) · J. Ziolkowski (Foot Injury)
- Ruled out
- M. Felici (Knee Injury) · R. Idrissi (Knee Injury) · Y. Trepy (Injury)
Published 19 Oct 2026, 16:27 BST · not changed since
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