Monza v Napoli match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Wed 28 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Napoli are favoured to win with a 52% chance against Monza's 23%, though expected goals of 2.69 suggest a close contest. Napoli have just one win in five matches, and Monza's home form makes them a threat. Napoli are without several key players including defenders Buongiorno and Favasuli and forward David Neres.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 22%Monza win
- 26%Draw
- 52%Napoli win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
MonzaLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
NapoliLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Serie A, since 19 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 218 of 276.
- Napoli won 40 of 52 matches in which they scored first, since 29 Oct 2024.
- Napoli won 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
6 meetings: Monza 1, draws 1, Napoli 4
Goals: Monza 4, Napoli 11
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2025 | Monza v Napoli | 0–1 |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Napoli v Monza | 2–0 |
| 7 Apr 2024 | Monza v Napoli | 2–4 |
| 29 Dec 2023 | Napoli v Monza | 0–0 |
| 14 May 2023 | Monza v Napoli | 2–0 |
| 21 Aug 2022 | Napoli v Monza | 4–0 |
Home and away
MonzaMonza at home
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- WonCagliari19 Oct 20264–0
- WonSassuolo18 Sep 20262–1
- LostUdinese29 Aug 20262–3
- WonAvellinoCoppa Italia14 Aug 20263–0
- LostCatanzaroSerie B · Italy29 May 20260–2
Monza: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 19 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
NapoliNapoli away
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- LostVenezia17 Oct 20260–1
- LostVillarrealUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20261–3
- DrawnFiorentina20 Sep 20261–1
- LostInter5 Sep 20262–3
- WonGenoa22 Aug 20262–0
Napoli: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 13 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Monza- Last match
- 5 days before23 Oct 2026 · v Torino · Serie A
- Next match
- 3 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Bologna · Serie A
Napoli- Last match
- 4 days before24 Oct 2026 · v AS Roma · Serie A
- Next match
- 4 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Juventus · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 29 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Napoli
| Score | Napoli | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 40 won, 8 drawn, 4 lost in 52 matches | 763 won, 238 drawn, 127 lost in 1128 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 6 drawn, 16 lost in 28 matches | 127 won, 238 drawn, 763 lost in 1128 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 22 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 29 matches | 337 won, 123 drawn, 57 lost in 517 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 12 drawn, 8 lost in 29 matches | 323 won, 394 drawn, 323 lost in 1040 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 15 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches | 374 won, 112 drawn, 35 lost in 521 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 16 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 35 matches | 239 won, 406 drawn, 239 lost in 884 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 15 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches | 392 won, 96 drawn, 24 lost in 512 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 14 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 34 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 24 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 28 matches | 434 won, 85 drawn, 13 lost in 532 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 13 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches | 109 won, 488 drawn, 109 lost in 706 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 28 won, 16 drawn, 14 lost in 58 matches | 623 won, 538 drawn, 623 lost in 1784 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 21 won, 6 drawn, 1 lost in 28 matches | 295 won, 111 drawn, 59 lost in 465 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 19 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost in 40 matches | 453 won, 424 drawn, 453 lost in 1330 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Napoli | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 22 scored, 23 conceded (86) | 714 scored, 714 conceded (2446) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 10 conceded (40) | 250 scored, 233 conceded (833) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 13 scored, 6 conceded (28) | 231 scored, 231 conceded (780) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 32 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 18(league sides: 1,261 times, within 15 minutes 187, by full time 561)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Monza | Napoli | |
|---|---|---|
| 37Since 30 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 75Since 29 Oct 2024 |
| 38.61 | xG for | 105.83 |
| 33 | Goals scored | 114 |
| 56.85 | xG against | 72.17 |
| 76 | Goals conceded | 68 |
Monza
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | at Torino | 0.68 | 1.40 | 2–3 |
| 19 Oct 2026 | v Cagliari | 2.10 | 2.11 | 4–0 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Lazio | 1.76 | 1.84 | 1–3 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | v Sassuolo | 1.51 | 1.47 | 2–1 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Lecce | 2.79 | 1.08 | 2–3 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Parma | 1.72 | 0.73 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Udinese | 1.70 | 0.98 | 2–3 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Inter | 1.23 | 1.05 | 1–4 |
| 24 May 2025 | at AC Milan | 0.34 | 1.49 | 0–2 |
| 18 May 2025 | v Empoli | 1.15 | 1.27 | 1–3 |
Napoli
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | v AS Roma | 2.51 | 1.96 | 3–3 |
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Venezia | 2.46 | 0.67 | 0–1 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Frosinone | 3.12 | 1.01 | 3–0 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Fiorentina | 1.40 | 1.14 | 1–1 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Bologna | 1.19 | 0.29 | 1–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Inter | 2.43 | 3.86 | 2–3 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Como | 1.39 | 1.05 | 1–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Genoa | 0.77 | 0.67 | 2–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Udinese | 1.76 | 0.37 | 1–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Pisa | 1.09 | 0.82 | 3–0 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Monza | Napoli | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 7 | Points in those matches | 11 |
| 12.73 | xPts | 14.11 |
| 13.49 | xG for | 15.27 |
| 10.66 | xG against | 10.65 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Monza and Napoli
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- M. Folorunsho (Coach's decision) · Y. Maye (Muscle Injury) · M. Pessina (Knee Injury) · J. Ziolkowski (Foot Injury)
- Ruled out
- Alisson Santos (Muscle Injury) · B. Badiashile (Injury) · A. Buongiorno (Knee Injury) · David Neres (Thigh Injury) · C. Favasuli (Thigh Injury) · L. Spinazzola (Thigh Injury)
Published 28 Oct 2026, 18:42 GMT · not changed since
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