Napoli v AS Roma match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 33%Napoli win
- 29%Draw
- 38%AS Roma win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
NapoliLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
AS RomaLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Napoli won 41 of 52 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
- AS Roma won 51 of 59 matches in which they scored first, since 24 Oct 2024.
- Napoli won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
- AS Roma unbeaten in their last 5 away games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Napoli 4, draws 5, AS Roma 1
Goals: Napoli 11, AS Roma 9
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2026 | Napoli v AS Roma | 2–2 |
| 30 Nov 2025 | AS Roma v Napoli | 0–1 |
| 2 Feb 2025 | AS Roma v Napoli | 1–1 |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Napoli v AS Roma | 1–0 |
| 28 Apr 2024 | Napoli v AS Roma | 2–2 |
| 23 Dec 2023 | AS Roma v Napoli | 2–0 |
| 29 Jan 2023 | Napoli v AS Roma | 2–1 |
| 23 Oct 2022 | AS Roma v Napoli | 0–1 |
| 18 Apr 2022 | Napoli v AS Roma | 1–1 |
| 24 Oct 2021 | AS Roma v Napoli | 0–0 |
Home and away
NapoliNapoli at home
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- WonBodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League20 Oct 20264–3
- WonFrosinone10 Oct 20263–0
- WonBologna13 Sep 20261–0
- LostArsenalUEFA Champions League9 Sep 20260–1
- LostComo30 Aug 20261–2
Napoli: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 17 scored, 9 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
AS RomaAS Roma away
Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost
- DrawnComo11 Oct 20260–0
- WonTorino14 Sep 20262–0
- DrawnFenerbahçeUEFA Champions League10 Sep 20261–1
- WonLecce31 Aug 20264–0
- WonHellas Verona24 May 20262–0
AS Roma: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 19 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Napoli- Last match
- 4 days before20 Oct 2026 · v Bodo/Glimt · UEFA Champions League
- Next match
- 4 days after28 Oct 2026 · v Monza · Serie A
AS Roma- Last match
- 4 days before20 Oct 2026 · v Slovan Bratislava · UEFA Champions League
- Next match
- 3 days after27 Oct 2026 · v Cagliari · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Napoli
Since 26 Oct 2024
| Score | Napoli | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 41 won, 7 drawn, 4 lost in 52 matches | 758 won, 236 drawn, 124 lost in 1118 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 6 drawn, 16 lost in 28 matches | 124 won, 236 drawn, 758 lost in 1118 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 22 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 28 matches | 334 won, 121 drawn, 56 lost in 511 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 12 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches | 321 won, 394 drawn, 321 lost in 1036 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 15 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches | 371 won, 111 drawn, 34 lost in 516 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 17 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 36 matches | 238 won, 406 drawn, 238 lost in 882 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 15 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches | 390 won, 94 drawn, 22 lost in 506 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 15 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 35 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 25 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 29 matches | 432 won, 84 drawn, 11 lost in 527 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 29 won, 15 drawn, 14 lost in 58 matches | 617 won, 534 drawn, 617 lost in 1768 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 21 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 27 matches | 291 won, 109 drawn, 58 lost in 458 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 20 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost in 41 matches | 451 won, 424 drawn, 451 lost in 1326 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Napoli | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 21 scored, 22 conceded (86) | 702 scored, 702 conceded (2426) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 10 conceded (41) | 248 scored, 225 conceded (824) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 5 conceded (27) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (778) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 32 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 18(league sides: 1,246 times, within 15 minutes 183, by full time 551)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
AS Roma
Since 24 Oct 2024
| Score | AS Roma | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 51 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 59 matches | 758 won, 236 drawn, 124 lost in 1118 matches |
| Conceded first | 6 won, 10 drawn, 21 lost in 37 matches | 124 won, 236 drawn, 758 lost in 1118 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 26 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 29 matches | 334 won, 121 drawn, 56 lost in 511 matches |
| Level at half-time | 18 won, 10 drawn, 10 lost in 38 matches | 321 won, 394 drawn, 321 lost in 1036 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 32 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 36 matches | 371 won, 111 drawn, 34 lost in 516 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 8 won, 7 drawn, 8 lost in 23 matches | 238 won, 406 drawn, 238 lost in 882 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 70 minutes | 22 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches | 290 won, 13 drawn, 1 lost in 304 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 29 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 31 matches | 390 won, 94 drawn, 22 lost in 506 matches |
| 2+ goals up after 80 minutes | 27 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost in 28 matches | 330 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 334 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 27 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 29 matches | 432 won, 84 drawn, 11 lost in 527 matches |
| 1 goal up after 15 minutes | 17 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches | 204 won, 60 drawn, 41 lost in 305 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 38 won, 13 drawn, 15 lost in 66 matches | 617 won, 534 drawn, 617 lost in 1768 matches |
| 1 goal up after 30 minutes | 26 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 29 matches | 291 won, 109 drawn, 58 lost in 458 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 25 won, 12 drawn, 14 lost in 51 matches | 451 won, 424 drawn, 451 lost in 1326 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | AS Roma | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 31 scored, 26 conceded (97) | 702 scored, 702 conceded (2426) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 15 scored, 14 conceded (56) | 248 scored, 225 conceded (824) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 9 conceded (20) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (778) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 3 conceded (21) | 225 scored, 248 conceded (824) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 40 times, equalised within 15 minutes 11, by full time 25(league sides: 1,246 times, within 15 minutes 183, by full time 551)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Napoli | AS Roma | |
|---|---|---|
| 75Since 26 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 75Since 27 Oct 2024 |
| 106.01 | xG for | 112.62 |
| 112 | Goals scored | 123 |
| 70.82 | xG against | 78.59 |
| 65 | Goals conceded | 63 |
Napoli
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | at Venezia | 2.46 | 0.67 | 0–1 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Frosinone | 3.12 | 1.01 | 3–0 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Fiorentina | 1.40 | 1.14 | 1–1 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Bologna | 1.19 | 0.29 | 1–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Inter | 2.43 | 3.86 | 2–3 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | v Como | 1.39 | 1.05 | 1–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Genoa | 0.77 | 0.67 | 2–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Udinese | 1.76 | 0.37 | 1–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Pisa | 1.09 | 0.82 | 3–0 |
| 11 May 2026 | v Bologna | 0.80 | 1.26 | 2–3 |
AS Roma
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | v Genoa | 1.37 | 0.49 | 2–0 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Como | 1.08 | 1.35 | 0–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Inter | 1.66 | 2.86 | 2–2 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | at Torino | 1.85 | 0.86 | 2–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Atalanta | 2.97 | 0.70 | 2–1 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | at Lecce | 3.27 | 0.80 | 4–0 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | v Fiorentina | 3.07 | 0.35 | 4–0 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Hellas Verona | 3.39 | 0.84 | 2–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Lazio | 1.19 | 0.69 | 2–0 |
| 10 May 2026 | at Parma | 2.62 | 0.73 | 3–2 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Napoli | AS Roma | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 10 | Points in those matches | 17 |
| 12.40 | xPts | 14.05 |
| 12.76 | xG for | 15.27 |
| 8.69 | xG against | 7.41 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Napoli and AS Roma
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- Alisson Santos (Muscle Injury) · A. Buongiorno (Knee Injury) · David Neres (Thigh Injury) · C. Favasuli (Thigh Injury)
- Ruled out
- M. Bah (Knee Injury) · P. Dybala (Calf Injury) · M. Kone (Muscle Injury) · L. Pellegrini (Thigh Injury) · M. Svilar (Toe Injury)
Published 24 Oct 2026, 15:58 BST · not changed since
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