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Eredivisie
NEC Nijmegen
2–2Finished
Fortuna Sittard
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 19:00 BSTMatchday 9 · Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

NEC Nijmegen are given a 55% chance of victory against Fortuna Sittard, who won 3-2 when these teams met in February. NEC are without key players through injury and their form has slumped with two defeats in their last five matches.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 55%NEC Nijmegen win
  • 23%Draw
  • 22%Fortuna Sittard win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen

Last 5: no wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats

Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • NEC Nijmegen won 24 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Fortuna Sittard won 20 of 32 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
  • NEC Nijmegen won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
  • NEC Nijmegen without a win in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: NEC Nijmegen 4, draws 3, Fortuna Sittard 3

Goals: NEC Nijmegen 21, Fortuna Sittard 14

DateMatchScore
28 Feb 2026NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard2–3
31 Aug 2025Fortuna Sittard v NEC Nijmegen3–2
19 Jan 2025NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard4–1
31 Aug 2024Fortuna Sittard v NEC Nijmegen0–3
2 Apr 2024Fortuna Sittard v NEC Nijmegen1–1
15 Dec 2023NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard4–1
28 May 2023Fortuna Sittard v NEC Nijmegen1–1
19 Oct 2022NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna SittardKNVB Beker3–2
10 Sep 2022NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard1–1
15 May 2022NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard0–1

Home and away

NEC Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen at home

Last 5: 0 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost

  • DrawnLevski SofiaUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20261–1
  • DrawnGO Ahead Eagles20 Sep 20261–1
  • DrawnExcelsior8 Sep 20262–2
  • LostFeyenoord5 Sep 20261–3
  • LostBodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League19 Aug 20261–3

NEC Nijmegen: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
9 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Fortuna Sittard

Fortuna Sittard away

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonWillem II19 Sep 20261–0
  • WonADO Den Haag6 Sep 20263–2
  • WonGroningen28 Aug 20263–2
  • DrawnPSV Eindhoven8 Aug 20262–2
  • LostUtrecht17 May 20260–2

Fortuna Sittard: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 19 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

NEC Nijmegen
Last match
3 days before15 Oct 2026 · v Levski Sofia · UEFA Europa League
Next match
4 days after22 Oct 2026 · v Dinamo Zagreb · UEFA Europa League
Fortuna Sittard
Last match
8 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Twente · Eredivisie
Next match
7 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Excelsior · Eredivisie

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

NEC Nijmegen

Since 19 Oct 2024

ScoreNEC NijmegenLeague sides
Scored first24 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 33 matches645 won, 224 drawn, 119 lost in 988 matches
Conceded first4 won, 15 drawn, 21 lost in 40 matches119 won, 224 drawn, 645 lost in 988 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 29 matches230 won, 296 drawn, 230 lost in 756 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 9 drawn, 10 lost in 20 matches52 won, 103 drawn, 296 lost in 451 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 26 matches166 won, 286 drawn, 166 lost in 618 matches
Level after 70 minutes5 won, 17 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches121 won, 320 drawn, 121 lost in 562 matches
Level after 80 minutes3 won, 17 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches75 won, 340 drawn, 75 lost in 490 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 17 drawn, 16 lost in 50 matches483 won, 392 drawn, 483 lost in 1358 matches
Level after 30 minutes13 won, 14 drawn, 13 lost in 40 matches339 won, 314 drawn, 339 lost in 992 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreNEC NijmegenLeague sides
All matches34 scored, 16 conceded (75)753 scored, 753 conceded (2058)
When leading after 75 minutes13 scored, 6 conceded (25)333 scored, 238 conceded (766)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 4 conceded (22)182 scored, 182 conceded (526)
When trailing after 75 minutes14 scored, 6 conceded (28)238 scored, 333 conceded (766)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 14, by full time 32(league sides: 1,176 times, within 15 minutes 199, by full time 542)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Fortuna Sittard

Since 20 Oct 2024

ScoreFortuna SittardLeague sides
Scored first20 won, 7 drawn, 5 lost in 32 matches645 won, 224 drawn, 119 lost in 988 matches
Conceded first3 won, 6 drawn, 25 lost in 34 matches119 won, 224 drawn, 645 lost in 988 matches
Level at half-time8 won, 7 drawn, 10 lost in 25 matches230 won, 296 drawn, 230 lost in 756 matches
Level after 60 minutes5 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 21 matches166 won, 286 drawn, 166 lost in 618 matches
Level after 15 minutes13 won, 12 drawn, 18 lost in 43 matches483 won, 392 drawn, 483 lost in 1358 matches
Level after 30 minutes9 won, 9 drawn, 15 lost in 33 matches339 won, 314 drawn, 339 lost in 992 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreFortuna SittardLeague sides
All matches21 scored, 28 conceded (68)753 scored, 753 conceded (2058)
When leading after 75 minutes2 scored, 11 conceded (20)333 scored, 238 conceded (766)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 11 conceded (30)238 scored, 333 conceded (766)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 17(league sides: 1,176 times, within 15 minutes 199, by full time 542)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

NEC NijmegenFortuna Sittard
68Since 19 Oct 2024Matches with xG67Since 20 Oct 2024
114.53xG for81.31
134Goals scored89
97.07xG against116.08
104Goals conceded117

NEC Nijmegen

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
NEC Nijmegen: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at Ajax1.051.781–1
20 Sep 2026v GO Ahead Eagles1.042.311–1
12 Sep 2026at Cambuur0.933.120–3
8 Sep 2026v Excelsior1.361.812–2
5 Sep 2026v Feyenoord0.741.111–3
29 Aug 2026at PEC Zwolle1.942.033–1
15 Aug 2026at Willem II2.991.434–1
8 Aug 2026v Telstar2.151.661–2
17 May 2026v GO Ahead Eagles4.440.322–1
10 May 2026at Groningen1.081.561–2

Fortuna Sittard

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Fortuna Sittard: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Twente0.951.151–1
19 Sep 2026at Willem II1.311.011–0
12 Sep 2026v Ajax0.714.131–5
6 Sep 2026at ADO Den Haag0.550.483–2
28 Aug 2026at Groningen0.881.603–2
22 Aug 2026v AZ Alkmaar0.444.350–2
15 Aug 2026v Cambuur1.912.513–1
8 Aug 2026at PSV Eindhoven1.012.312–2
17 May 2026at Utrecht0.482.090–2
3 May 2026v Feyenoord0.772.501–2

NEC Nijmegen: 1 without xG left outFortuna Sittard: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

NEC NijmegenFortuna Sittard
8 of 8Matches with xG8 of 8
9Points in those matches14
9.30xPts6.90
12.20xG for7.76
15.25xG against17.54

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen
    Ruled out
    E. Mor (Groin Injury) · B. Nuytinck (Ankle Injury) · P. Sandler (Injury)
    Doubtful
    D. Tadic (Injury) · A. Thomas (Inactive)
  • Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard
    Ruled out
    R. Bayram (Knee Injury) · I. Marquez (Injury) · Y. Oukili (Groin Injury)
    Doubtful
    J. Dahlhaus (Inactive)

Published 18 Oct 2026, 18:23 BST · not changed since

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