NEC Nijmegen v Groningen match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 25 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
The model rates NEC Nijmegen as slight favourites at home with a 47% win probability, but their recent run of four draws in five matches highlights inconsistency. Both sides face injury problems ahead of kick-off.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 47%NEC Nijmegen win
- 24%Draw
- 29%Groningen win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
NEC NijmegenLast 5: 1 win, 4 draws, no defeats
GroningenLast 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- NEC Nijmegen won 24 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 25 Oct 2024.
- Groningen won 25 of 35 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
- NEC Nijmegen won 5 of the last 9 meetings.
- NEC Nijmegen without a win in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
9 meetings: NEC Nijmegen 5, draws 1, Groningen 3
Goals: NEC Nijmegen 20, Groningen 10
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Groningen v NEC Nijmegen | 2–1 |
| 9 Nov 2025 | NEC Nijmegen v Groningen | 2–0 |
| 8 Feb 2025 | Groningen v NEC Nijmegen | 2–1 |
| 3 Nov 2024 | NEC Nijmegen v Groningen | 6–0 |
| 25 Apr 2023 | Groningen v NEC Nijmegen | 0–1 |
| 26 Aug 2022 | NEC Nijmegen v Groningen | 1–1 |
| 12 Mar 2022 | Groningen v NEC Nijmegen | 4–3 |
| 19 Jan 2022 | Groningen v NEC NijmegenKNVB Beker | 1–2 |
| 31 Oct 2021 | NEC Nijmegen v Groningen | 3–0 |
Home and away
NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen at home
Last 5: 0 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost
- DrawnFortuna Sittard18 Oct 20262–2
- DrawnLevski SofiaUEFA Europa League15 Oct 20261–1
- DrawnGO Ahead Eagles20 Sep 20261–1
- DrawnExcelsior8 Sep 20262–2
- LostFeyenoord5 Sep 20261–3
NEC Nijmegen: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 16 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 9 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 7 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
GroningenGroningen away
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- WonExcelsior11 Oct 20265–1
- DrawnGO Ahead Eagles12 Sep 20261–1
- LostPSV Eindhoven23 Aug 20261–5
- WonADO Den Haag16 Aug 20264–1
- LostAjax21 May 20260–2
Groningen: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 19 scored, 18 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
NEC Nijmegen- Last match
- 3 days before22 Oct 2026 · v Dinamo Zagreb · UEFA Europa League
- Next match
- 6 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Heerenveen · Eredivisie
Groningen- Last match
- 7 days before18 Oct 2026 · v Ajax · Eredivisie
- Next match
- 4 days after29 Oct 2026 · v Emmen · KNVB Beker
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
NEC Nijmegen
Since 25 Oct 2024
| Score | NEC Nijmegen | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 24 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 33 matches | 648 won, 226 drawn, 120 lost in 994 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 16 drawn, 21 lost in 41 matches | 120 won, 226 drawn, 648 lost in 994 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 31 matches | 230 won, 300 drawn, 230 lost in 760 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 1 won, 9 drawn, 10 lost in 20 matches | 53 won, 103 drawn, 297 lost in 453 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 14 drawn, 3 lost in 26 matches | 167 won, 288 drawn, 167 lost in 622 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 5 won, 17 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches | 121 won, 322 drawn, 121 lost in 564 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 3 won, 17 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches | 75 won, 340 drawn, 75 lost in 490 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 18 won, 18 drawn, 16 lost in 52 matches | 485 won, 396 drawn, 485 lost in 1366 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 13 won, 15 drawn, 13 lost in 41 matches | 339 won, 318 drawn, 339 lost in 996 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | NEC Nijmegen | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 36 scored, 16 conceded (76) | 758 scored, 758 conceded (2070) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 14 scored, 6 conceded (25) | 334 scored, 242 conceded (772) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 4 conceded (22) | 182 scored, 182 conceded (526) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 15 scored, 6 conceded (29) | 242 scored, 334 conceded (772) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 56 times, equalised within 15 minutes 16, by full time 35(league sides: 1,184 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 546)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Groningen
Since 26 Oct 2024
| Score | Groningen | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 25 won, 3 drawn, 7 lost in 35 matches | 648 won, 226 drawn, 120 lost in 994 matches |
| Conceded first | 1 won, 7 drawn, 22 lost in 30 matches | 120 won, 226 drawn, 648 lost in 994 matches |
| Level at half-time | 8 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost in 29 matches | 230 won, 300 drawn, 230 lost in 760 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 14 won, 12 drawn, 17 lost in 43 matches | 485 won, 396 drawn, 485 lost in 1366 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 15 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost in 36 matches | 339 won, 318 drawn, 339 lost in 996 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Groningen | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 20 scored, 21 conceded (69) | 758 scored, 758 conceded (2070) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 7 conceded (27) | 334 scored, 242 conceded (772) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 9 conceded (26) | 242 scored, 334 conceded (772) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 36 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 13(league sides: 1,184 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 546)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| NEC Nijmegen | Groningen | |
|---|---|---|
| 68Since 25 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 69Since 26 Oct 2024 |
| 116.26 | xG for | 104.84 |
| 133 | Goals scored | 100 |
| 97.18 | xG against | 100.58 |
| 106 | Goals conceded | 107 |
NEC Nijmegen
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Fortuna Sittard | 3.06 | 0.45 | 2–2 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Ajax | 1.05 | 1.78 | 1–1 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v GO Ahead Eagles | 1.04 | 2.31 | 1–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Cambuur | 0.93 | 3.12 | 0–3 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | v Excelsior | 1.36 | 1.81 | 2–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Feyenoord | 0.74 | 1.11 | 1–3 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at PEC Zwolle | 1.94 | 2.03 | 3–1 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | at Willem II | 2.99 | 1.43 | 4–1 |
| 8 Aug 2026 | v Telstar | 2.15 | 1.66 | 1–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | v GO Ahead Eagles | 4.44 | 0.32 | 2–1 |
Groningen
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Ajax | 2.29 | 3.04 | 2–5 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Excelsior | 3.06 | 1.74 | 5–1 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | v PEC Zwolle | 1.39 | 0.43 | 3–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at GO Ahead Eagles | 0.16 | 2.23 | 1–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Twente | 1.48 | 2.30 | 2–2 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | v Fortuna Sittard | 1.60 | 0.88 | 2–3 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at PSV Eindhoven | 1.09 | 4.40 | 1–5 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | at ADO Den Haag | 3.20 | 1.01 | 4–1 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | v Utrecht | 1.55 | 2.27 | 2–1 |
| 21 May 2026 | at Ajax | 0.16 | 1.83 | 0–2 |
NEC Nijmegen: 1 without xG left out
This league season
Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| NEC Nijmegen | Groningen | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 of 9 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 10 | Points in those matches | 14 |
| 12.04 | xPts | 11.91 |
| 15.26 | xG for | 15.82 |
| 15.70 | xG against | 18.30 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: NEC Nijmegen and Groningen
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- E. Mor (Groin Injury) · Y. Moslih (Inactive) · B. Nuytinck (Ankle Injury) · P. Sandler (Injury) · D. Tadic (Calf Injury)
- Ruled out
- M. Jeng (Leg Injury) · T. Mercera (Injury) · E. van der Laan (Injury)
Published 25 Oct 2026, 12:27 GMT · not changed since
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