LEDGER
Sign inGo PRO
Premier League
Newcastle
0–1Finished
Aston Villa
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 17:30 BSTMatchday 7 · St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle v Aston Villa match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Newcastle hold a slight advantage at 40% in this evenly matched Premier League encounter, though Aston Villa's superior recent form and Newcastle's patchy results make it competitive. Expected goals stand at 3, with Newcastle given a narrow advantage of 0.12. Both teams face substantial injury lists that could shape the contest.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 40%Newcastle win
  • 26%Draw
  • 34%Aston Villa win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

NewcastleNewcastle

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Aston VillaAston Villa

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 186 of 265.
  • Aston Villa won 45 of 55 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Newcastle won 6 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Newcastle unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Newcastle 6, draws 1, Aston Villa 3

Goals: Newcastle 20, Aston Villa 12

DateMatchScore
14 Feb 2026Aston Villa v NewcastleFA Cup1–3
25 Jan 2026Newcastle v Aston Villa0–2
16 Aug 2025Aston Villa v Newcastle0–0
19 Apr 2025Aston Villa v Newcastle4–1
26 Dec 2024Newcastle v Aston Villa3–0
30 Jan 2024Aston Villa v Newcastle1–3
12 Aug 2023Newcastle v Aston Villa5–1
15 Apr 2023Aston Villa v Newcastle3–0
29 Oct 2022Newcastle v Aston Villa4–0
13 Feb 2022Newcastle v Aston Villa1–0

Home and away

Newcastle

Newcastle at home

Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonHull City19 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnBournemouth5 Sep 20262–2
  • WonWest BromLeague Cup26 Aug 20263–2
  • DrawnLiverpool23 Aug 20262–2
  • WonWest Ham17 May 20263–1

Newcastle: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
20 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
10 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
10 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10
Aston Villa

Aston Villa away

Last 5: 3 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonTottenham19 Sep 20263–2
  • WonCoventryLeague Cup16 Sep 20263–1
  • WonClub Brugge KVUEFA Champions League8 Sep 20263–2
  • DrawnHull City5 Sep 20260–0
  • LostBrighton23 Aug 20260–4

Aston Villa: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
10 scored, 17 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Newcastle
Last match
5 days before12 Oct 2026 · v Coventry · Premier League
Next match
8 days after25 Oct 2026 · v Crystal Palace · Premier League
Aston Villa
Last match
3 days before14 Oct 2026 · v Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League
Next match
4 days after21 Oct 2026 · v Viking · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Aston Villa

ScoreAston VillaLeague sides
Scored first45 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 55 matches735 won, 239 drawn, 168 lost in 1142 matches
Conceded first11 won, 8 drawn, 23 lost in 42 matches168 won, 239 drawn, 735 lost in 1142 matches
1 goal up at half-time18 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 22 matches322 won, 125 drawn, 73 lost in 520 matches
Level at half-time23 won, 12 drawn, 13 lost in 48 matches300 won, 326 drawn, 300 lost in 926 matches
1 goal down at half-time7 won, 3 drawn, 11 lost in 21 matches73 won, 125 drawn, 322 lost in 520 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes27 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 30 matches351 won, 126 drawn, 51 lost in 528 matches
Level after 60 minutes13 won, 11 drawn, 7 lost in 31 matches208 won, 322 drawn, 208 lost in 738 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes26 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 29 matches345 won, 113 drawn, 37 lost in 495 matches
Level after 70 minutes11 won, 14 drawn, 5 lost in 30 matches163 won, 354 drawn, 163 lost in 680 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes25 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches405 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 411 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes24 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 27 matches351 won, 99 drawn, 22 lost in 472 matches
Level after 80 minutes7 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches124 won, 388 drawn, 124 lost in 636 matches
Level after 15 minutes40 won, 14 drawn, 18 lost in 72 matches611 won, 454 drawn, 611 lost in 1676 matches
Level after 30 minutes30 won, 11 drawn, 16 lost in 57 matches425 won, 384 drawn, 425 lost in 1234 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreAston VillaLeague sides
All matches37 scored, 31 conceded (102)871 scored, 871 conceded (2402)
When leading after 75 minutes19 scored, 13 conceded (48)313 scored, 326 conceded (877)
When level after 75 minutes12 scored, 6 conceded (27)232 scored, 232 conceded (648)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 12 conceded (27)326 scored, 313 conceded (877)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 49 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 25(league sides: 1,355 times, within 15 minutes 230, by full time 650)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

NewcastleAston Villa
75Matches with xG75
119.24xG for102.26
123Goals scored108
97.89xG against107.81
108Goals conceded102

Newcastle

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Newcastle: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
12 Oct 2026at Coventry1.841.471–4
19 Sep 2026v Hull City1.441.592–1
14 Sep 2026at Leeds0.882.081–4
5 Sep 2026v Bournemouth0.711.372–2
29 Aug 2026at Tottenham0.721.122–0
23 Aug 2026v Liverpool1.582.982–2
24 May 2026at Fulham0.311.810–2
17 May 2026v West Ham1.730.953–1
10 May 2026at Nottingham Forest1.481.101–1
2 May 2026v Brighton3.161.533–1

Aston Villa

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Aston Villa: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Brentford2.281.062–2
19 Sep 2026at Tottenham1.161.563–2
12 Sep 2026v Nottingham Forest0.822.281–2
5 Sep 2026at Hull City1.930.570–0
31 Aug 2026v Arsenal0.331.040–1
23 Aug 2026at Brighton0.293.770–4
24 May 2026at Manchester City1.771.342–1
15 May 2026v Liverpool1.911.554–2
10 May 2026at Burnley1.441.792–2
3 May 2026v Tottenham0.320.991–2

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

NewcastleAston Villa
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
8Points in those matches5
6.13xPts6.83
7.17xG for6.81
10.61xG against10.28

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Newcastle and Aston Villa

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • NewcastleNewcastle
    Ruled out
    A. Elanga (Knee Injury) · E. Jaouen (Muscle Injury) · V. Livramento (Injury) · J. Ramsey (Thigh Injury)
  • Aston VillaAston Villa
    Ruled out
    I. Maatsen (Ankle Injury) · A. Onana (Knee Injury) · M. Ruggeri (Injury)
    Doubtful
    M. Cisse (Injury) · G. Hemmings (Knee Injury)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 16:27 BST · not changed since

All fixtures