Nice v Strasbourg match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Strasbourg are slight favourites in the model with a 40% win probability to Nice's 34%, with a 26% draw likelihood. The model expects 3 total goals with a 0.18 expected goals gap in Strasbourg's favour.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 34%Nice win
- 26%Draw
- 40%Strasbourg win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
NiceLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
StrasbourgLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Nice won 25 of 38 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Strasbourg won 27 of 39 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Nice won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
- Nice unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
10 meetings: Nice 4, draws 4, Strasbourg 2
Goals: Nice 14, Strasbourg 11
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | Strasbourg v NiceCoupe de France | 0–2 |
| 4 Apr 2026 | Strasbourg v Nice | 3–1 |
| 3 Jan 2026 | Nice v Strasbourg | 1–1 |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Strasbourg v Nice | 2–2 |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2–1 |
| 28 Apr 2024 | Strasbourg v Nice | 1–3 |
| 3 Sep 2023 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2–0 |
| 13 May 2023 | Strasbourg v Nice | 2–0 |
| 14 Aug 2022 | Nice v Strasbourg | 1–1 |
| 26 Feb 2022 | Strasbourg v Nice | 0–0 |
Home and away
NiceNice at home
Last 5: 2 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost
- WonLille20 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnLe Mans5 Sep 20261–1
- DrawnLorient22 Aug 20260–0
- WonSaint Etienne29 May 20264–1
- DrawnMetz17 May 20260–0
Nice: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
StrasbourgStrasbourg away
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- LostParis FC19 Sep 20261–2
- WonEstac Troyes6 Sep 20266–2
- LostMarseille21 Aug 20260–4
- WonStade Brestois 2913 May 20262–1
- DrawnAngers10 May 20261–1
Strasbourg: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 19 scored, 18 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 8 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Nice- Last match
- 21 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Lille · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 7 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Lyon · Ligue 1
Strasbourg- Last match
- 22 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Paris FC · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 6 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Nice
Since 20 Oct 2024
| Score | Nice | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 25 won, 7 drawn, 6 lost in 38 matches | 632 won, 165 drawn, 109 lost in 906 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 10 drawn, 32 lost in 45 matches | 109 won, 165 drawn, 632 lost in 906 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 12 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches | 312 won, 83 drawn, 40 lost in 435 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 10 drawn, 10 lost in 29 matches | 250 won, 276 drawn, 250 lost in 776 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 2 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 22 matches | 40 won, 83 drawn, 312 lost in 435 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 16 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 20 matches | 310 won, 82 drawn, 28 lost in 420 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 5 won, 12 drawn, 12 lost in 29 matches | 175 won, 282 drawn, 175 lost in 632 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 0 won, 8 drawn, 14 lost in 22 matches | 21 won, 79 drawn, 314 lost in 414 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 1 won, 5 drawn, 17 lost in 23 matches | 8 won, 66 drawn, 314 lost in 388 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 18 won, 17 drawn, 24 lost in 59 matches | 509 won, 354 drawn, 509 lost in 1372 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 12 won, 13 drawn, 20 lost in 45 matches | 343 won, 314 drawn, 343 lost in 1000 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Nice | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 22 scored, 25 conceded (88) | 643 scored, 643 conceded (1950) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 9 conceded (32) | 270 scored, 219 conceded (701) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 10 conceded (39) | 219 scored, 270 conceded (701) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 20(league sides: 1,054 times, within 15 minutes 158, by full time 460)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Strasbourg
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Strasbourg | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 27 won, 5 drawn, 7 lost in 39 matches | 632 won, 165 drawn, 109 lost in 906 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 3 drawn, 15 lost in 26 matches | 109 won, 165 drawn, 632 lost in 906 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 12 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 20 matches | 312 won, 83 drawn, 40 lost in 435 matches |
| Level at half-time | 12 won, 7 drawn, 12 lost in 31 matches | 250 won, 276 drawn, 250 lost in 776 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 14 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches | 310 won, 82 drawn, 28 lost in 420 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 8 won, 7 drawn, 7 lost in 22 matches | 175 won, 282 drawn, 175 lost in 632 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 8 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 24 matches | 139 won, 296 drawn, 139 lost in 574 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 8 won, 12 drawn, 9 lost in 29 matches | 116 won, 332 drawn, 116 lost in 564 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 23 won, 11 drawn, 17 lost in 51 matches | 509 won, 354 drawn, 509 lost in 1372 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 16 won, 10 drawn, 7 lost in 33 matches | 343 won, 314 drawn, 343 lost in 1000 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Strasbourg | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 31 scored, 28 conceded (71) | 643 scored, 643 conceded (1950) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 14 conceded (29) | 270 scored, 219 conceded (701) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 7 conceded (25) | 154 scored, 154 conceded (548) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 30 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 17(league sides: 1,054 times, within 15 minutes 158, by full time 460)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Nice | Strasbourg | |
|---|---|---|
| 66Since 20 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 66Since 19 Oct 2024 |
| 98.75 | xG for | 96.38 |
| 91 | Goals scored | 110 |
| 99.17 | xG against | 102.07 |
| 100 | Goals conceded | 89 |
Nice
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Lille | 1.50 | 1.58 | 2–1 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Auxerre | 1.08 | 1.74 | 0–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Le Mans | 1.12 | 1.28 | 1–1 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Paris FC | 0.78 | 2.38 | 0–3 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Lorient | 1.05 | 1.28 | 0–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Metz | 1.64 | 0.85 | 0–0 |
| 10 May 2026 | at Auxerre | 1.33 | 0.84 | 1–2 |
| 2 May 2026 | v Lens | 1.07 | 1.53 | 1–1 |
| 26 Apr 2026 | at Marseille | 1.46 | 2.32 | 1–1 |
| 18 Apr 2026 | at Lille | 0.19 | 0.54 | 0–0 |
Strasbourg
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Paris FC | 0.24 | 1.05 | 1–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Monaco | 1.02 | 1.05 | 1–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Estac Troyes | 2.95 | 2.94 | 6–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Lens | 1.83 | 2.91 | 2–1 |
| 21 Aug 2026 | at Marseille | 0.18 | 1.86 | 0–4 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Monaco | 1.50 | 1.13 | 5–4 |
| 13 May 2026 | at Stade Brestois 29 | 2.02 | 3.06 | 2–1 |
| 10 May 2026 | at Angers | 2.02 | 0.59 | 1–1 |
| 3 May 2026 | v Toulouse | 0.41 | 1.36 | 1–2 |
| 26 Apr 2026 | at Lorient | 1.34 | 2.28 | 3–2 |
Nice: 2 without xG left out
This league season
Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Nice | Strasbourg | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of 5 | Matches with xG | 5 of 5 |
| 5 | Points in those matches | 7 |
| 5.19 | xPts | 4.47 |
| 5.53 | xG for | 6.22 |
| 8.26 | xG against | 9.81 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Nice and Strasbourg
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 11 Oct 2026, 13:37 BST · not changed since
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