Championship0–1Finished

Portsmouth

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 BSTMatchday 11

Norwich v Portsmouth match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 17 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Norwich are favoured at 52% despite five straight defeats, while Portsmouth arrive with mixed form but face seven injury absences. The model expects 2.89 goals total, with Norwich projected to create a 0.61 expected-goals advantage.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

52%Norwich win
25%Draw
23%Portsmouth win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Norwich

Last 5: no wins, no draws, 5 defeats

Portsmouth

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

Norwich won 26 of 47 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
Portsmouth won 27 of 40 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
Both teams scored in 7 of Norwich's last 10 home league games.
Both teams scored in 7 of Portsmouth's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

4 meetings: Norwich 1, draws 2, Portsmouth 1

Goals: Norwich 6, Portsmouth 7

Date	Match	Score
3 Apr 2026	Norwich v Portsmouth	1–1
16 Aug 2025	Portsmouth v Norwich	1–2
18 Apr 2025	Norwich v Portsmouth	3–5
10 Dec 2024	Portsmouth v Norwich	0–0

Home and away

Norwich

Norwich at home

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

LostSouthampton14 Oct 20260–1
LostBolton20 Sep 20263–4
WonBirmingham9 Sep 20262–1
WonBurnley29 Aug 20264–1
LostWest Brom15 Aug 20261–2

Norwich: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 16 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 5 of 10
Clean sheets: 1 of 10

Portsmouth

Portsmouth away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

LostSouthampton11 Oct 20260–1
DrawnCharlton12 Sep 20260–0
LostBristol City29 Aug 20261–2
WonLincoln22 Aug 20263–1
LostWest HamLeague Cup8 Aug 20261–3

Portsmouth: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 12 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 5 of 10
Clean sheets: 2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Norwich

Last match: 3 days before14 Oct 2026 · v Southampton · Championship
Next match: 7 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Charlton · Championship

Portsmouth

Last match: 3 days before14 Oct 2026 · v Sheffield Utd · Championship
Next match: 3 days after20 Oct 2026 · v Wolves · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Norwich

Score	Norwich	League sides
Scored first	26 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost in 47 matches	1108 won, 345 drawn, 214 lost in 1667 matches
Conceded first	6 won, 7 drawn, 30 lost in 43 matches	214 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1667 matches
Level at half-time	10 won, 11 drawn, 13 lost in 34 matches	457 won, 574 drawn, 457 lost in 1488 matches
Level after 60 minutes	9 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 29 matches	342 won, 578 drawn, 342 lost in 1262 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes	3 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 23 matches	64 won, 169 drawn, 534 lost in 767 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes	15 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches	560 won, 149 drawn, 44 lost in 753 matches
Level after 70 minutes	6 won, 13 drawn, 9 lost in 28 matches	277 won, 626 drawn, 277 lost in 1180 matches
Level after 80 minutes	3 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 21 matches	173 won, 698 drawn, 173 lost in 1044 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes	1 won, 2 drawn, 22 lost in 25 matches	17 won, 117 drawn, 640 lost in 774 matches
Level after 15 minutes	22 won, 15 drawn, 26 lost in 63 matches	917 won, 732 drawn, 917 lost in 2566 matches
Level after 30 minutes	19 won, 13 drawn, 15 lost in 47 matches	651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes	3 won, 2 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches	106 won, 145 drawn, 434 lost in 685 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
Score	Norwich	League sides
All matches	30 scored, 25 conceded (93)	1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3582)
When leading after 75 minutes	12 scored, 11 conceded (32)	344 scored, 373 conceded (1247)
When level after 75 minutes	7 scored, 9 conceded (24)	319 scored, 319 conceded (1088)
When trailing after 75 minutes	11 scored, 5 conceded (37)	373 scored, 344 conceded (1247)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 20(league sides: 1,878 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 833)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Portsmouth

Score	Portsmouth	League sides
Scored first	27 won, 9 drawn, 4 lost in 40 matches	1108 won, 345 drawn, 214 lost in 1667 matches
Conceded first	4 won, 8 drawn, 35 lost in 47 matches	214 won, 345 drawn, 1108 lost in 1667 matches
1 goal up at half-time	14 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches	504 won, 164 drawn, 94 lost in 762 matches
Level at half-time	9 won, 13 drawn, 11 lost in 33 matches	457 won, 574 drawn, 457 lost in 1488 matches
1 goal down at half-time	2 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 22 matches	94 won, 164 drawn, 504 lost in 762 matches
Level after 60 minutes	7 won, 17 drawn, 12 lost in 36 matches	342 won, 578 drawn, 342 lost in 1262 matches
Level after 70 minutes	4 won, 17 drawn, 9 lost in 30 matches	277 won, 626 drawn, 277 lost in 1180 matches
Level after 80 minutes	3 won, 20 drawn, 5 lost in 28 matches	173 won, 698 drawn, 173 lost in 1044 matches
Level after 15 minutes	26 won, 16 drawn, 24 lost in 66 matches	917 won, 732 drawn, 917 lost in 2566 matches
Level after 30 minutes	19 won, 13 drawn, 17 lost in 49 matches	651 won, 626 drawn, 651 lost in 1928 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes	1 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches	106 won, 145 drawn, 434 lost in 685 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
Score	Portsmouth	League sides
All matches	24 scored, 21 conceded (92)	1036 scored, 1036 conceded (3582)
When leading after 75 minutes	6 scored, 3 conceded (28)	344 scored, 373 conceded (1247)
When level after 75 minutes	7 scored, 10 conceded (28)	319 scored, 319 conceded (1088)
When trailing after 75 minutes	11 scored, 8 conceded (36)	373 scored, 344 conceded (1247)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 49 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 18(league sides: 1,878 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 833)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

Norwich		Portsmouth
93	Matches with xG	92
125.46	xG for	110.26
135	Goals scored	110
126.17	xG against	117.38
134	Goals conceded	128

Norwich

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left

Show the numbers

Norwich: Last matches with xG, newest first
Date	Opponent	xG for	xG against	Goals (tick; no tick = 0)
14 Oct 2026	v Southampton	1.26	2.16	0–1
10 Oct 2026	at Swansea	0.68	2.36	1–2
20 Sep 2026	v Bolton	0.69	1.10	3–4
12 Sep 2026	at Middlesbrough	1.76	2.38	3–4
9 Sep 2026	v Birmingham	1.01	1.63	2–1
5 Sep 2026	at Sheffield Utd	3.04	0.79	3–1
1 Sep 2026	at Stoke City	1.44	0.58	0–1
29 Aug 2026	v Burnley	2.30	1.38	4–1
22 Aug 2026	at Millwall	1.02	2.69	0–3
15 Aug 2026	v West Brom	2.96	1.85	1–2

Portsmouth

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left

Show the numbers

Portsmouth: Last matches with xG, newest first
Date	Opponent	xG for	xG against	Goals (tick; no tick = 0)
14 Oct 2026	v Sheffield Utd	2.01	1.80	3–2
11 Oct 2026	at Southampton	1.18	1.28	0–1
19 Sep 2026	v Blackburn	1.60	0.59	2–2
12 Sep 2026	at Charlton	0.40	0.82	0–0
5 Sep 2026	v Cardiff	2.07	1.37	2–0
1 Sep 2026	v Derby	0.84	0.55	0–2
29 Aug 2026	at Bristol City	1.37	0.61	1–2
22 Aug 2026	at Lincoln	1.21	2.32	3–1
15 Aug 2026	v QPR	2.17	2.07	1–3
2 May 2026	v Birmingham	0.74	1.67	1–1

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

Norwich		Portsmouth
10 of 10	Matches with xG	9 of 9
9	Points in those matches	11
13.32	xPts	13.37
16.16	xG for	12.85
16.92	xG against	11.41

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Norwich and Portsmouth

Corners won and concededPRO
Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
First-half goals, scored and concededPRO

PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Norwich
Ruled out
A. Ahmed (Knee Injury) · P. A. Diallo (Injury) · V. Kovacevic (Concussion) · K. McLean (Injury) · M. Topic (Knee Injury) · M. Toure (Shoulder Injury)
Doubtful
A. Crnac (Rest) · K. Fisher (Health problems)
Portsmouth
Ruled out
B. Arthur (Back Injury) · L. Brooke-Smith (Ankle Injury) · M. Kosznovszky (Knee Injury) · J. Murphy (Groin Injury) · C. Ogilvie (Knee Injury) · F. Umeh (Hamstring Injury) · T. Waddingham (Ankle Injury)
Doubtful
K. Anderson (Overload) · C. Shaughnessy (Injury)

Published 17 Oct 2026, 13:57 BST · not changed since

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