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Championship
Norwich
0–1Finished
Southampton
Wed 14 Oct 2026 · 19:45 BSTMatchday 10

Norwich v Southampton match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Wed 14 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Norwich host Southampton in a closely contested Championship match where the model slightly favours the home side at 39%, with a 26% draw likelihood. Both teams have similar attacking output (1.62 and 1.58 expected goals), but Norwich are significantly depleted by six injuries.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 39%Norwich win
  • 25%Draw
  • 36%Southampton win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

NorwichNorwich

Last 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats

SouthamptonSouthampton

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Norwich won 31 of 52 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Southampton won 29 of 49 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Southampton won 3 of the last 7 meetings.
  • Both teams scored in 8 of Norwich's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

7 meetings: Norwich 2, draws 2, Southampton 3

Goals: Norwich 9, Southampton 13

DateMatchScore
18 Mar 2026Southampton v Norwich1–0
13 Dec 2025Norwich v Southampton2–1
26 Aug 2025Norwich v SouthamptonLeague Cup0–3
1 Jan 2024Norwich v Southampton1–1
12 Aug 2023Southampton v Norwich4–4
25 Feb 2022Southampton v NorwichPremier League2–0
20 Nov 2021Norwich v SouthamptonPremier League2–1

Home and away

Norwich

Norwich at home

Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostBolton20 Sep 20263–4
  • WonBirmingham9 Sep 20262–1
  • WonBurnley29 Aug 20264–1
  • LostWest Brom15 Aug 20261–2
  • WonMilton Keynes DonsLeague Cup8 Aug 20264–1

Norwich: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Southampton

Southampton away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostWrexham19 Sep 20261–2
  • DrawnLincoln5 Sep 20261–1
  • DrawnBirmingham1 Sep 20261–1
  • LostWatford16 Aug 20261–2
  • WonColchesterLeague Cup8 Aug 20262–0

Southampton: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
9 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Norwich
Last match
4 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Swansea · Championship
Next match
3 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Portsmouth · Championship
Southampton
Last match
3 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Portsmouth · Championship
Next match
3 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Bolton · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Norwich

ScoreNorwichLeague sides
Scored first31 won, 10 drawn, 11 lost in 52 matches1104 won, 345 drawn, 213 lost in 1662 matches
Conceded first6 won, 7 drawn, 32 lost in 45 matches213 won, 345 drawn, 1104 lost in 1662 matches
1 goal up at half-time11 won, 4 drawn, 5 lost in 20 matches502 won, 164 drawn, 94 lost in 760 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 11 drawn, 12 lost in 33 matches455 won, 574 drawn, 455 lost in 1484 matches
1 goal down at half-time4 won, 4 drawn, 12 lost in 20 matches94 won, 164 drawn, 502 lost in 760 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 29 matches341 won, 578 drawn, 341 lost in 1260 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes3 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 23 matches64 won, 169 drawn, 532 lost in 765 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes17 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches559 won, 149 drawn, 44 lost in 752 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 13 drawn, 9 lost in 29 matches275 won, 626 drawn, 275 lost in 1176 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 14 drawn, 4 lost in 22 matches172 won, 698 drawn, 172 lost in 1042 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 2 drawn, 21 lost in 24 matches17 won, 117 drawn, 638 lost in 772 matches
Level after 15 minutes24 won, 15 drawn, 28 lost in 67 matches912 won, 732 drawn, 912 lost in 2556 matches
Level after 30 minutes20 won, 13 drawn, 16 lost in 49 matches648 won, 626 drawn, 648 lost in 1922 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes3 won, 2 drawn, 16 lost in 21 matches105 won, 145 drawn, 434 lost in 684 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreNorwichLeague sides
All matches34 scored, 29 conceded (100)1032 scored, 1032 conceded (3572)
When leading after 75 minutes14 scored, 12 conceded (36)342 scored, 372 conceded (1243)
When level after 75 minutes9 scored, 9 conceded (25)318 scored, 318 conceded (1086)
When trailing after 75 minutes11 scored, 8 conceded (39)372 scored, 342 conceded (1243)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 55 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 20(league sides: 1,872 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 831)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Southampton

ScoreSouthamptonLeague sides
Scored first29 won, 9 drawn, 11 lost in 49 matches1104 won, 345 drawn, 213 lost in 1662 matches
Conceded first6 won, 9 drawn, 28 lost in 43 matches213 won, 345 drawn, 1104 lost in 1662 matches
1 goal up at half-time11 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 20 matches502 won, 164 drawn, 94 lost in 760 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 16 drawn, 12 lost in 37 matches455 won, 574 drawn, 455 lost in 1484 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes15 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 25 matches532 won, 169 drawn, 64 lost in 765 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 29 matches341 won, 578 drawn, 341 lost in 1260 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes13 won, 4 drawn, 5 lost in 22 matches559 won, 149 drawn, 44 lost in 752 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 29 matches275 won, 626 drawn, 275 lost in 1176 matches
Level after 80 minutes6 won, 18 drawn, 9 lost in 33 matches172 won, 698 drawn, 172 lost in 1042 matches
Level after 15 minutes20 won, 19 drawn, 25 lost in 64 matches912 won, 732 drawn, 912 lost in 2556 matches
Level after 30 minutes13 won, 19 drawn, 14 lost in 46 matches648 won, 626 drawn, 648 lost in 1922 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes3 won, 2 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches105 won, 145 drawn, 434 lost in 684 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSouthamptonLeague sides
All matches34 scored, 39 conceded (98)1032 scored, 1032 conceded (3572)
When leading after 75 minutes11 scored, 11 conceded (33)342 scored, 372 conceded (1243)
When level after 75 minutes11 scored, 12 conceded (32)318 scored, 318 conceded (1086)
When trailing after 75 minutes12 scored, 16 conceded (33)372 scored, 342 conceded (1243)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 51 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 23(league sides: 1,872 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 831)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

NorwichSouthampton
92Matches with xG87
124.20xG for118.77
135Goals scored124
124.01xG against144.27
133Goals conceded137

Norwich

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Norwich: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at Swansea0.682.361–2
20 Sep 2026v Bolton0.691.103–4
12 Sep 2026at Middlesbrough1.762.383–4
9 Sep 2026v Birmingham1.011.632–1
5 Sep 2026at Sheffield Utd3.040.793–1
1 Sep 2026at Stoke City1.440.580–1
29 Aug 2026v Burnley2.301.384–1
22 Aug 2026at Millwall1.022.690–3
15 Aug 2026v West Brom2.961.851–2
2 May 2026at Hull City0.971.821–2

Southampton

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Southampton: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026v Portsmouth1.281.181–0
19 Sep 2026at Wrexham2.080.541–2
12 Sep 2026v Bristol City1.712.244–1
8 Sep 2026v Swansea1.441.223–1
5 Sep 2026at Lincoln0.772.271–1
1 Sep 2026at Birmingham1.021.551–1
29 Aug 2026v Millwall3.621.355–1
22 Aug 2026v Stoke City2.320.933–1
16 Aug 2026at Watford1.710.811–2
9 May 2026at Middlesbrough0.581.810–0

Southampton: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

NorwichSouthampton
9 of 9Matches with xG9 of 9
9Points in those matches17
12.46xPts14.67
14.90xG for15.95
14.76xG against12.09

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Norwich and Southampton

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • NorwichNorwich
    Ruled out
    A. Ahmed (Knee Injury) · P. A. Diallo (Injury) · L. Mahovo (Ankle Injury) · K. McLean (Injury) · M. Topic (Knee Injury) · M. Toure (Shoulder Injury)
  • SouthamptonSouthampton
    Ruled out
    C. Bragg (Red Card)

Published 14 Oct 2026, 18:42 BST · not changed since

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