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Championship
Norwich
3–2Finished
Watford
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 12:30 GMTMatchday 13 · Carrow Road, Norwich

Norwich v Watford match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives Norwich a 59% chance of winning, with a 23% draw chance and 18% for an away win. Expected goals of 1.91 for the home side and 1.0 for the away side give Norwich a 0.91 gap. Norwich have won one of their last five (WLLLL), while Watford have also struggled with one win from five (LWLLL). Both teams are missing multiple players to injury, including three ruled out for each side.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 59%Norwich win
  • 23%Draw
  • 18%Watford win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

NorwichNorwich

Last 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats

  1. won3–1at Charlton
  2. lost0–1v Portsmouth
  3. lost0–1v Southampton
  4. lost1–2at Swansea
  5. lost3–4v Bolton
WatfordWatford

Last 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats

  1. lost0–1at Wolves
  2. won2–0v Charlton
  3. lost1–5at Cardiff
  4. lost0–4v Burnley
  5. lost0–1at Bristol City

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Norwich won 26 of 45 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Watford won 19 of 29 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Watford without a win in their last 5 away games.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of Norwich's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Norwich 5, draws 0, Watford 5

Goals: Norwich 19, Watford 14

DateMatchScore
29 Dec 2025Norwich v Watford0–1
6 Dec 2025Watford v Norwich3–2
12 Aug 2025Watford v NorwichLeague Cup1–2
1 Feb 2025Watford v Norwich0–1
21 Sep 2024Norwich v Watford4–1
13 Feb 2024Norwich v Watford4–2
28 Nov 2023Watford v Norwich3–2
2 Jan 2023Norwich v Watford0–1
15 Oct 2022Watford v Norwich2–1
21 Jan 2022Watford v NorwichPremier League0–3

Home and away

Norwich

Norwich at home

Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostPortsmouth17 Oct 20260–1
  • LostSouthampton14 Oct 20260–1
  • LostBolton20 Sep 20263–4
  • WonBirmingham9 Sep 20262–1
  • WonBurnley29 Aug 20264–1

Norwich: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
14 scored, 15 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10
Watford

Watford away

Last 5: 0 won, 0 drawn, 5 lost

  • LostWolves24 Oct 20260–1
  • LostCardiff13 Oct 20261–5
  • LostBristol City18 Sep 20260–1
  • LostWest Brom5 Sep 20260–1
  • LostSwansea1 Sep 20260–2

Watford: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
4 scored, 23 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
0 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Norwich
Last match
7 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Charlton · Championship
Next match
3 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Derby · Championship
Watford
Last match
7 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Wolves · Championship
Next match
3 days after3 Nov 2026 · v Lincoln · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 2 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Norwich

ScoreNorwichLeague sides
Scored first26 won, 8 drawn, 11 lost in 45 matches1122 won, 350 drawn, 218 lost in 1690 matches
Conceded first7 won, 6 drawn, 31 lost in 44 matches218 won, 350 drawn, 1122 lost in 1690 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 10 drawn, 14 lost in 35 matches463 won, 582 drawn, 463 lost in 1508 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 28 matches343 won, 586 drawn, 343 lost in 1272 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes3 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 23 matches65 won, 171 drawn, 544 lost in 780 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes16 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches570 won, 152 drawn, 45 lost in 767 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 26 matches278 won, 634 drawn, 278 lost in 1190 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 2 drawn, 23 lost in 26 matches17 won, 120 drawn, 648 lost in 785 matches
Level after 15 minutes22 won, 13 drawn, 27 lost in 62 matches928 won, 744 drawn, 928 lost in 2600 matches
Level after 30 minutes19 won, 11 drawn, 16 lost in 46 matches661 won, 636 drawn, 661 lost in 1958 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes4 won, 2 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches108 won, 147 drawn, 439 lost in 694 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreNorwichLeague sides
All matches30 scored, 25 conceded (92)1050 scored, 1050 conceded (3632)
When leading after 75 minutes13 scored, 11 conceded (33)350 scored, 377 conceded (1266)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 9 conceded (22)323 scored, 323 conceded (1100)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 5 conceded (37)377 scored, 350 conceded (1266)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 53 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 19(league sides: 1,903 times, within 15 minutes 325, by full time 842)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Watford

ScoreWatfordLeague sides
Scored first19 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 29 matches1122 won, 350 drawn, 218 lost in 1690 matches
Conceded first8 won, 13 drawn, 37 lost in 58 matches218 won, 350 drawn, 1122 lost in 1690 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 39 matches463 won, 582 drawn, 463 lost in 1508 matches
1 goal down at half-time5 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 26 matches95 won, 165 drawn, 512 lost in 772 matches
Level after 60 minutes6 won, 16 drawn, 6 lost in 28 matches343 won, 586 drawn, 343 lost in 1272 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes2 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 24 matches65 won, 171 drawn, 544 lost in 780 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 27 matches278 won, 634 drawn, 278 lost in 1190 matches
1 goal down after 70 minutes1 won, 4 drawn, 20 lost in 25 matches45 won, 152 drawn, 570 lost in 767 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes19 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches648 won, 120 drawn, 17 lost in 785 matches
Level after 80 minutes2 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches175 won, 706 drawn, 175 lost in 1056 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes1 won, 4 drawn, 20 lost in 25 matches17 won, 120 drawn, 648 lost in 785 matches
Level after 15 minutes15 won, 20 drawn, 28 lost in 63 matches928 won, 744 drawn, 928 lost in 2600 matches
Level after 30 minutes10 won, 18 drawn, 19 lost in 47 matches661 won, 636 drawn, 661 lost in 1958 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes6 won, 7 drawn, 14 lost in 27 matches108 won, 147 drawn, 439 lost in 694 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreWatfordLeague sides
All matches28 scored, 21 conceded (92)1050 scored, 1050 conceded (3632)
When leading after 75 minutes5 scored, 6 conceded (25)350 scored, 377 conceded (1266)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 5 conceded (25)323 scored, 323 conceded (1100)
When trailing after 75 minutes15 scored, 10 conceded (42)377 scored, 350 conceded (1266)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 60 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 23(league sides: 1,903 times, within 15 minutes 325, by full time 842)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 2 Nov 2024

NorwichWatford
92Matches with xG92
124.37xG for107.16
132Goals scored100
121.56xG against120.80
130Goals conceded127

Norwich

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Norwich: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026at Charlton1.750.873–1
17 Oct 2026v Portsmouth0.371.250–1
14 Oct 2026v Southampton1.262.160–1
10 Oct 2026at Swansea0.682.361–2
20 Sep 2026v Bolton0.691.103–4
12 Sep 2026at Middlesbrough1.762.383–4
9 Sep 2026v Birmingham1.011.632–1
5 Sep 2026at Sheffield Utd3.040.793–1
1 Sep 2026at Stoke City1.440.580–1
29 Aug 2026v Burnley2.301.384–1

Watford

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Watford: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
24 Oct 2026at Wolves0.151.880–1
17 Oct 2026v Charlton2.871.312–0
13 Oct 2026at Cardiff1.463.671–5
10 Oct 2026v Burnley0.641.940–4
18 Sep 2026at Bristol City0.521.560–1
12 Sep 2026v Stoke City0.391.501–2
8 Sep 2026v Preston1.262.442–1
5 Sep 2026at West Brom1.261.140–1
1 Sep 2026at Swansea0.882.710–2
29 Aug 2026v West Ham1.600.891–1

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

NorwichWatford
12 of 12Matches with xG12 of 12
12Points in those matches11
15.93xPts10.43
18.28xG for12.49
19.04xG against22.67

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Norwich and Watford

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • NorwichNorwich
    Ruled out
    A. Ahmed (Knee Injury) · P. A. Diallo (Injury) · G. Forsyth (Lacking Match Fitness) · M. Toure (Shoulder Injury)
    Doubtful
    P. Mattsson (Health problems) · M. Topic (Lacking Match Fitness)
  • WatfordWatford
    Ruled out
    M. Antonio (Inactive) · K. Baah (Knock) · E. Bove (Knee Injury) · S. Coulibaly (Hamstring Injury) · J. Ngakia (Thigh Injury)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 11:27 GMT · not changed since

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