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Premier League
Nottingham Forest
0–1Finished
Arsenal
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 16:30 BSTMatchday 7 · City Ground, Nottingham

Nottingham Forest v Arsenal match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Arsenal are given a 53% chance of winning this encounter against a Nottingham Forest side in poor form. The model expects 2.5 goals in total, with Arsenal projected to have a goalscoring advantage of 0.72 over the home team. Both teams are dealing with multiple injury concerns in defence.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 20%Nottingham Forest win
  • 26%Draw
  • 54%Arsenal win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

ArsenalArsenal

Last 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Nottingham Forest won 32 of 40 matches in which they scored first, since 21 Oct 2024.
  • Premier League, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 187 of 266.
  • Arsenal won 5 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Nottingham Forest without a win in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

9 meetings: Nottingham Forest 2, draws 2, Arsenal 5

Goals: Nottingham Forest 4, Arsenal 15

DateMatchScore
17 Jan 2026Nottingham Forest v Arsenal0–0
13 Sep 2025Arsenal v Nottingham Forest3–0
26 Feb 2025Nottingham Forest v Arsenal0–0
23 Nov 2024Arsenal v Nottingham Forest3–0
30 Jan 2024Nottingham Forest v Arsenal1–2
12 Aug 2023Arsenal v Nottingham Forest2–1
20 May 2023Nottingham Forest v Arsenal1–0
30 Oct 2022Arsenal v Nottingham Forest5–0
9 Jan 2022Nottingham Forest v ArsenalFA Cup1–0

Home and away

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest at home

Last 5: 0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostCoventry19 Sep 20260–1
  • DrawnTottenham5 Sep 20260–0
  • LostLeedsLeague Cup25 Aug 20260–2
  • LostLeeds22 Aug 20260–1
  • DrawnBournemouth24 May 20261–1

Nottingham Forest: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
7 scored, 7 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
1 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10
Arsenal

Arsenal away

Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost

  • LostBrighton19 Sep 20260–3
  • WonIpswichLeague Cup15 Sep 20264–2
  • WonSunderland12 Sep 20262–0
  • WonNapoliUEFA Champions League9 Sep 20261–0
  • WonAston Villa31 Aug 20261–0

Arsenal: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 10 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Nottingham Forest
Last match
7 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Crystal Palace · Premier League
Next match
5 days after23 Oct 2026 · v Ipswich · Premier League
Arsenal
Last match
5 days before13 Oct 2026 · v Lille · UEFA Champions League
Next match
3 days after21 Oct 2026 · v Bayern München · UEFA Champions League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 21 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Nottingham Forest

ScoreNottingham ForestLeague sides
Scored first32 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 40 matches738 won, 239 drawn, 169 lost in 1146 matches
Conceded first4 won, 9 drawn, 31 lost in 44 matches169 won, 239 drawn, 738 lost in 1146 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 13 drawn, 12 lost in 36 matches300 won, 326 drawn, 300 lost in 926 matches
1 goal down at half-time2 won, 3 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches74 won, 125 drawn, 325 lost in 524 matches
Level after 60 minutes7 won, 15 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches208 won, 322 drawn, 208 lost in 738 matches
Level after 70 minutes4 won, 15 drawn, 7 lost in 26 matches163 won, 354 drawn, 163 lost in 680 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes22 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches406 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 412 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches124 won, 388 drawn, 124 lost in 636 matches
Level after 15 minutes23 won, 16 drawn, 24 lost in 63 matches615 won, 454 drawn, 615 lost in 1684 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes14 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches312 won, 103 drawn, 78 lost in 493 matches
Level after 30 minutes16 won, 15 drawn, 18 lost in 49 matches429 won, 384 drawn, 429 lost in 1242 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreNottingham ForestLeague sides
All matches27 scored, 33 conceded (90)872 scored, 872 conceded (2410)
When leading after 75 minutes15 scored, 11 conceded (35)313 scored, 327 conceded (881)
When level after 75 minutes4 scored, 8 conceded (24)232 scored, 232 conceded (648)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 14 conceded (31)327 scored, 313 conceded (881)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 12, by full time 19(league sides: 1,361 times, within 15 minutes 231, by full time 652)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Nottingham ForestArsenal
75Since 21 Oct 2024Matches with xG75Since 19 Oct 2024
94.66xG for124.71
104Goals scored135
106.10xG against60.81
99Goals conceded60

Nottingham Forest

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Nottingham Forest: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026at Crystal Palace3.342.411–3
19 Sep 2026v Coventry1.100.670–1
12 Sep 2026at Aston Villa2.280.822–1
5 Sep 2026v Tottenham0.921.060–0
29 Aug 2026at Liverpool2.301.752–2
22 Aug 2026v Leeds0.660.470–1
24 May 2026v Bournemouth1.730.951–1
17 May 2026at Manchester United1.884.572–3
10 May 2026v Newcastle1.101.481–1
4 May 2026at Chelsea2.052.153–1

Arsenal

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Arsenal: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026v Leeds2.330.622–1
19 Sep 2026at Brighton1.631.310–3
12 Sep 2026at Sunderland1.881.802–0
6 Sep 2026v Chelsea2.050.392–1
31 Aug 2026at Aston Villa1.040.331–0
21 Aug 2026v Coventry1.880.203–0
24 May 2026at Crystal Palace2.530.982–1
18 May 2026v Burnley1.290.191–0
10 May 2026at West Ham1.181.151–0
2 May 2026v Fulham3.230.373–0

This league season

Premier League matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Nottingham ForestArsenal
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
5Points in those matches15
10.26xPts12.44
10.60xG for10.81
7.18xG against4.65

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Nottingham Forest and Arsenal

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
    Ruled out
    Igor Jesus (Calf Injury) · N. Savona (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    M. Gibbs-White (Injury) · N. Milenkovic (Knee Injury)
  • ArsenalArsenal
    Ruled out
    P. Hincapie (Ankle Injury) · W. Saliba (Back Injury) · C. Tzolis (Hamstring Injury)
    Doubtful
    M. Zubimendi (Ankle Injury)

Published 18 Oct 2026, 15:27 BST · not changed since

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