OH Leuven v Lommel United match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Lommel United hold a 44% chance of victory over OH Leuven, who the model gives 28% to win; a draw is nearly as likely at 28%. Expected goals stand at 2.5 for the match, with Lommel favoured to control play.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 28%OH Leuven win
- 28%Draw
- 44%Lommel United win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
OH LeuvenLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
Lommel UnitedLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
Head-to-head
Head-to-head data was not available for this match.
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- OH Leuven won 15 of 29 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
- Jupiler Pro League, since 28 Jul 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 186 of 241.
- Not both teams scored in 7 of OH Leuven's last 10 home league games.
Home and away
OH LeuvenOH Leuven at home
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- WonRAAL La Louvière19 Sep 20262–0
- DrawnCercle Brugge12 Sep 20261–1
- LostStandard Liege29 Aug 20261–2
- LostClub Brugge KV15 Aug 20260–3
- LostGenk23 May 20260–2
OH Leuven: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 3 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Lommel UnitedLommel United away
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- WonSK Beveren9 Oct 20263–1
- LostUnion St. Gilloise12 Sep 20260–5
- WonCercle Brugge29 Aug 20261–0
- DrawnSt. Truiden8 Aug 20261–1
- DrawnDender23 May 20260–0
Lommel United: away league games
Last 8 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 9 conceded in 8
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 8
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 8
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 8
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
OH Leuven- Last match
- 7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Francs Borains · Cup
- Next match
- 8 days after1 Nov 2026 · v St. Truiden · Jupiler Pro League
Lommel United- Last match
- 6 days before18 Oct 2026 · v St. Truiden · Cup
- Next match
- 8 days after1 Nov 2026 · v Gent · Jupiler Pro League
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 26 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
OH Leuven
| Score | OH Leuven | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 15 won, 10 drawn, 4 lost in 29 matches | 634 won, 193 drawn, 121 lost in 948 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 7 drawn, 31 lost in 41 matches | 121 won, 193 drawn, 634 lost in 948 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 15 drawn, 15 lost in 39 matches | 241 won, 328 drawn, 241 lost in 810 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 9 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 29 matches | 170 won, 304 drawn, 170 lost in 644 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 1 won, 3 drawn, 20 lost in 24 matches | 30 won, 104 drawn, 321 lost in 455 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 5 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches | 116 won, 336 drawn, 116 lost in 568 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 3 drawn, 21 lost in 25 matches | 21 won, 92 drawn, 333 lost in 446 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 2 won, 18 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches | 105 won, 366 drawn, 105 lost in 576 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 1 won, 3 drawn, 19 lost in 23 matches | 9 won, 79 drawn, 322 lost in 410 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 14 won, 19 drawn, 24 lost in 57 matches | 522 won, 408 drawn, 522 lost in 1452 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 15 won, 16 drawn, 18 lost in 49 matches | 376 won, 340 drawn, 376 lost in 1092 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | OH Leuven | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 19 scored, 26 conceded (77) | 675 scored, 675 conceded (2044) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 6 conceded (24) | 174 scored, 174 conceded (574) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 14 conceded (36) | 239 scored, 262 conceded (735) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 17(league sides: 1,080 times, within 15 minutes 162, by full time 474)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 28 Jul 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 26 Oct 2024
| OH Leuven | Lommel United | |
|---|---|---|
| 77 | Matches with xG | — |
| 92.44 | xG for | — |
| 75 | Goals scored | — |
| 124.08 | xG against | — |
| 110 | Goals conceded | — |
OH Leuven
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Union St. Gilloise | 1.46 | 1.14 | 1–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v RAAL La Louvière | 0.86 | 0.47 | 2–0 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Cercle Brugge | 0.92 | 1.60 | 1–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at SK Beveren | 0.88 | 2.68 | 0–3 |
| 3 Sep 2026 | at Gent | 0.52 | 0.98 | 0–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v Standard Liege | 1.89 | 1.36 | 1–2 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Club Brugge KV | 0.72 | 2.92 | 0–3 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | at Charleroi | 1.30 | 3.15 | 1–3 |
| 23 May 2026 | v Genk | 1.09 | 1.47 | 0–2 |
| 19 May 2026 | at Charleroi | 0.82 | 1.83 | 1–1 |
This league season
Jupiler Pro League matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| OH Leuven | Lommel United | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 5 | Points in those matches | 11 |
| 8.06 | xPts | 9.11 |
| 8.55 | xG for | 7.91 |
| 14.30 | xG against | 11.24 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: OH Leuven and Lommel United
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 24 Oct 2026, 16:12 BST · not changed since
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