Osasuna v Racing Santander match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
The model gives Osasuna a 51% chance of winning at home, though Racing Santander at 25% cannot be ruled out. Both teams are in poor form with just one win apiece in their last five matches. The model expects 3.2 total goals.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 51%Osasuna win
- 24%Draw
- 25%Racing Santander win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
OsasunaLast 5: no wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats
Racing SantanderLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
Head-to-head
Head-to-head data was not available for this match.
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Osasuna won 17 of 30 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- La Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 248 of 313.
- Racing Santander without a win in their last 5 away games.
Home and away
OsasunaOsasuna at home
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- DrawnRayo Vallecano19 Sep 20261–1
- LostEspanyol12 Sep 20260–2
- WonGetafe31 Aug 20261–0
- DrawnLevante24 Aug 20260–0
- LostEspanyol17 May 20261–2
Osasuna: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Racing SantanderRacing Santander away
Last 5: 0 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost
- LostCelta Vigo19 Sep 20260–5
- LostBarcelona16 Sep 20262–7
- LostRayo Vallecano5 Sep 20262–3
- LostGetafe23 Aug 20260–1
- DrawnMalagaSegunda División24 May 20261–1
Racing Santander: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 27 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Osasuna- Last match
- 7 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Real Betis · La Liga
- Next match
- 8 days after26 Oct 2026 · v Sevilla · La Liga
Racing Santander- Last match
- 7 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Valencia · La Liga
- Next match
- 6 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Espanyol · La Liga
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Osasuna
| Score | Osasuna | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 17 won, 8 drawn, 5 lost in 30 matches | 759 won, 246 drawn, 143 lost in 1148 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 11 drawn, 25 lost in 40 matches | 143 won, 246 drawn, 759 lost in 1148 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 12 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 21 matches | 327 won, 125 drawn, 60 lost in 512 matches |
| Level at half-time | 5 won, 14 drawn, 12 lost in 31 matches | 343 won, 376 drawn, 343 lost in 1062 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 8 won, 15 drawn, 9 lost in 32 matches | 264 won, 382 drawn, 264 lost in 910 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 5 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 25 matches | 206 won, 420 drawn, 206 lost in 832 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 5 won, 15 drawn, 4 lost in 24 matches | 152 won, 452 drawn, 152 lost in 756 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 16 won, 17 drawn, 23 lost in 56 matches | 640 won, 488 drawn, 640 lost in 1768 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 9 won, 16 drawn, 15 lost in 40 matches | 473 won, 424 drawn, 473 lost in 1370 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Osasuna | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 26 scored, 20 conceded (75) | 790 scored, 790 conceded (2446) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 7 conceded (26) | 234 scored, 234 conceded (790) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 6 conceded (30) | 275 scored, 281 conceded (828) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 45 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 19(league sides: 1,289 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 603)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Osasuna | Racing Santander | |
|---|---|---|
| 75 | Matches with xG | — |
| 93.06 | xG for | — |
| 87 | Goals scored | — |
| 104.78 | xG against | — |
| 106 | Goals conceded | — |
Osasuna
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Real Betis | 1.94 | 2.89 | 2–5 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Rayo Vallecano | 0.53 | 1.01 | 1–1 |
| 16 Sep 2026 | at Atletico Madrid | 0.48 | 3.99 | 0–4 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | v Espanyol | 1.05 | 1.43 | 0–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | at Alaves | 1.64 | 1.20 | 2–5 |
| 31 Aug 2026 | v Getafe | 1.68 | 0.68 | 1–0 |
| 27 Aug 2026 | at Celta Vigo | 2.60 | 0.14 | 2–1 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | v Levante | 0.70 | 1.28 | 0–0 |
| 23 May 2026 | at Getafe | 0.51 | 0.21 | 0–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Espanyol | 1.72 | 0.79 | 1–2 |
This league season
La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.
| Osasuna | Racing Santander | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 8 | Points in those matches | 8 |
| 10.47 | xPts | 9.15 |
| 10.62 | xG for | 11.40 |
| 12.62 | xG against | 17.21 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Osasuna and Racing Santander
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- A. Bonel (Inactive) · R. Del Castillo (Muscle Injury) · J. Herrando (Muscle Injury) · A. Oroz (Injury)
- Ruled out
- S. Eriksson (Shoulder Injury)
Published 18 Oct 2026, 11:57 BST · not changed since
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