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Ligue 1
Paris FC
4–3Finished
Rennes
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 16:15 BSTMatchday 7 · Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino

Paris FC v Rennes match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Paris FC are slight favourites with a 42% chance of winning, ahead of Rennes at 31%, with a 27% draw probability. Expected goals total 2.77, with Paris FC projected at 1.49 and Rennes at 1.28. Paris FC are without Ikone and Sangui, which could limit their attacking options.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 42%Paris FC win
  • 27%Draw
  • 31%Rennes win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Paris FCParis FC

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

RennesRennes

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Ligue 1, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 180 of 232.
  • Rennes won 28 of 37 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Paris FC unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of Paris FC's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

2 meetings: Paris FC 0, draws 0, Rennes 2

Goals: Paris FC 1, Rennes 3

DateMatchScore
10 May 2026Rennes v Paris FC2–1
7 Nov 2025Paris FC v Rennes0–1

Home and away

Paris FC

Paris FC at home

Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonStrasbourg19 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnLyon12 Sep 20260–0
  • WonNice30 Aug 20263–0
  • WonParis Saint Germain17 May 20262–1
  • WonStade Brestois 293 May 20264–0

Paris FC: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
19 scored, 11 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
4 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Rennes

Rennes away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • LostLyon19 Sep 20260–4
  • DrawnSturm GrazUEFA Europa League16 Sep 20260–0
  • WonAngers6 Sep 20262–1
  • LostMarseille17 May 20261–3
  • LostLyon3 May 20262–4

Rennes: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
20 scored, 22 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
10 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Paris FC
Last match
8 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Lorient · Ligue 1
Next match
6 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Lens · Ligue 1
Rennes
Last match
3 days before15 Oct 2026 · v OFI · UEFA Europa League
Next match
4 days after22 Oct 2026 · v Juventus · UEFA Europa League

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Paris FC

Since 17 Aug 2025

ScoreParis FCLeague sides
Level after 15 minutes10 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 33 matches513 won, 354 drawn, 513 lost in 1380 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreParis FCLeague sides
All matches16 scored, 14 conceded (40)651 scored, 651 conceded (1964)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 21 times, equalised within 15 minutes 3, by full time 10(league sides: 1,063 times, within 15 minutes 161, by full time 465)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Rennes

Since 19 Oct 2024

ScoreRennesLeague sides
Scored first28 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost in 37 matches636 won, 166 drawn, 111 lost in 913 matches
Conceded first5 won, 3 drawn, 21 lost in 29 matches111 won, 166 drawn, 636 lost in 913 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 7 drawn, 7 lost in 23 matches254 won, 276 drawn, 254 lost in 784 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 8 drawn, 14 lost in 39 matches513 won, 354 drawn, 513 lost in 1380 matches
Level after 30 minutes12 won, 7 drawn, 11 lost in 30 matches348 won, 314 drawn, 348 lost in 1010 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreRennesLeague sides
All matches28 scored, 22 conceded (69)651 scored, 651 conceded (1964)
When leading after 75 minutes12 scored, 6 conceded (29)274 scored, 222 conceded (706)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 11 conceded (25)222 scored, 274 conceded (706)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 33 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 12(league sides: 1,063 times, within 15 minutes 161, by full time 465)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Paris FCRennes
40Since 17 Aug 2025Matches with xG67Since 19 Oct 2024
54.79xG for105.82
55Goals scored111
59.74xG against103.88
54Goals conceded99

Paris FC

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Paris FC: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
10 Oct 2026at Lorient0.970.550–1
19 Sep 2026v Strasbourg1.050.242–1
12 Sep 2026v Lyon0.300.500–0
6 Sep 2026at Marseille3.291.423–2
30 Aug 2026v Nice2.380.783–0
22 Aug 2026at Estac Troyes1.800.420–0
17 May 2026v Paris Saint Germain2.200.612–1
10 May 2026at Rennes1.201.771–2
3 May 2026v Stade Brestois 291.860.794–0
26 Apr 2026v Lille1.061.710–1

Rennes

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Rennes: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
11 Oct 2026v Auxerre2.561.764–1
19 Sep 2026at Lyon1.373.130–4
11 Sep 2026v Marseille1.881.341–0
6 Sep 2026at Angers1.541.662–1
30 Aug 2026v Le Mans3.123.063–2
23 Aug 2026v Paris Saint Germain0.872.162–2
17 May 2026at Marseille2.492.921–3
10 May 2026v Paris FC1.771.202–1
3 May 2026at Lyon0.843.172–4
26 Apr 2026v Nantes1.302.172–1

This league season

Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.

Paris FCRennes
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
11Points in those matches13
11.81xPts7.48
9.79xG for11.34
3.91xG against13.11

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Paris FC and Rennes

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Paris FCParis FC
    Ruled out
    J. Ikone (Thigh Injury) · N. Sangui (Muscle Injury)
    Doubtful
    S. Chergui (Knee Injury) · V. Marchetti (Inactive)
  • RennesRennesNo injuries or suspensions reported.

Published 18 Oct 2026, 15:12 BST · not changed since

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