Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 69%Paris Saint Germain win
- 18%Draw
- 13%Le Mans win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
Paris Saint GermainLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
Le MansLast 4: 1 win, 2 draws, 1 defeat
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Ligue 1, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 178 of 229.
- Over 2.5 goals in 9 of Paris Saint Germain's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
1 meeting: Paris Saint Germain 1, draws 0, Le Mans 0
Goals: Paris Saint Germain 2, Le Mans 0
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Feb 2025 | Le Mans v Paris Saint GermainCoupe de France | 0–2 |
Home and away
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain at home
Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost
- WonSlovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League9 Sep 20266–1
- LostMonaco4 Sep 20261–2
- DrawnArsenalUEFA Champions League30 May 20261–1 PEN
- WonStade Brestois 2910 May 20261–0
- DrawnLorient2 May 20262–2
Paris Saint Germain: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 23 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 9 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 10
Le MansLe Mans away
Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost
- DrawnNice5 Sep 20261–1
- LostRennes30 Aug 20262–3
- WonBastiaLigue 29 May 20262–0
- DrawnGrenobleLigue 225 Apr 20261–1
- DrawnBoulogneLigue 211 Apr 20260–0
Le Mans: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 18 scored, 14 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Paris Saint Germain- Last match
- 20 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Marseille · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 4 days after14 Oct 2026 · v Manchester City · UEFA Champions League
Le Mans- Last match
- 21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Lorient · Ligue 1
- Next match
- 6 days after16 Oct 2026 · v Toulouse · Ligue 1
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Paris Saint Germain | Le Mans | |
|---|---|---|
| 66 | Matches with xG | — |
| 155.31 | xG for | — |
| 153 | Goals scored | — |
| 62.97 | xG against | — |
| 65 | Goals conceded | — |
Paris Saint Germain
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | at Marseille | 4.33 | 1.80 | 2–1 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | at Stade Brestois 29 | 1.16 | 1.24 | 1–0 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | v Monaco | 2.32 | 0.51 | 1–2 |
| 28 Aug 2026 | at Lille | 1.44 | 1.27 | 2–2 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | at Rennes | 2.16 | 0.87 | 2–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Paris FC | 0.61 | 2.20 | 1–2 |
| 13 May 2026 | at Lens | 1.22 | 2.87 | 2–0 |
| 10 May 2026 | v Stade Brestois 29 | 1.49 | 0.17 | 1–0 |
| 2 May 2026 | v Lorient | 2.42 | 0.96 | 2–2 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | at Angers | 2.78 | 0.70 | 3–0 |
This league season
Ligue 1 matches since 21 Aug 2026.
| Paris Saint Germain | Le Mans | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of 5 | Matches with xG | 5 of 5 |
| 8 | Points in those matches | 6 |
| 9.98 | xPts | 6.44 |
| 11.41 | xG for | 8.52 |
| 5.69 | xG against | 9.55 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 10 Oct 2026, 19:12 BST · not changed since
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