Parma v Torino match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Mon 19 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Parma host Torino with the model assessing this as a tight match across all three outcomes: home win 35%, draw 31%, away win 34%. Expected goals total 2.25 with little separating the teams. Parma are hampered by three injuries, while Torino have doubts over two players.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 35%Parma win
- 31%Draw
- 34%Torino win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
ParmaLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
TorinoLast 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Parma won 15 of 22 matches in which they scored first, since 27 Oct 2024.
- Torino won 18 of 26 matches in which they scored first, since 20 Oct 2024.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Parma's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
4 meetings: Parma 1, draws 2, Torino 1
Goals: Parma 5, Torino 7
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Mar 2026 | Torino v Parma | 4–1 |
| 29 Sep 2025 | Parma v Torino | 2–1 |
| 8 Mar 2025 | Parma v Torino | 2–2 |
| 5 Jan 2025 | Torino v Parma | 0–0 |
Home and away
ParmaParma at home
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- WonGenoa20 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnMonza6 Sep 20261–1
- LostCremoneseCoppa Italia1 Sep 20260–2
- LostCagliari22 Aug 20260–1
- WonCataniaCoppa Italia14 Aug 20262–0
Parma: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 11 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
TorinoTorino away
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- DrawnBologna19 Sep 20261–1
- WonFiorentina5 Sep 20262–1
- LostSassuolo29 Aug 20261–2
- LostCagliari17 May 20261–2
- LostUdinese2 May 20260–2
Torino: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Parma- Last match
- 9 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Inter · Serie A
- Next match
- 5 days after24 Oct 2026 · v Lazio · Serie A
Torino- Last match
- 7 days before12 Oct 2026 · v Udinese · Serie A
- Next match
- 4 days after23 Oct 2026 · v Monza · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Parma
Since 27 Oct 2024
| Score | Parma | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 15 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost in 22 matches | 753 won, 236 drawn, 124 lost in 1113 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 10 drawn, 29 lost in 42 matches | 124 won, 236 drawn, 753 lost in 1113 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 14 drawn, 16 lost in 39 matches | 319 won, 394 drawn, 319 lost in 1032 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 7 won, 18 drawn, 11 lost in 36 matches | 237 won, 406 drawn, 237 lost in 880 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 2 won, 4 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches | 34 won, 111 drawn, 370 lost in 515 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 19 drawn, 6 lost in 34 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches | 22 won, 94 drawn, 388 lost in 504 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 19 drawn, 3 lost in 26 matches | 109 won, 486 drawn, 109 lost in 704 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 20 matches | 11 won, 84 drawn, 432 lost in 527 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 14 won, 17 drawn, 22 lost in 53 matches | 613 won, 534 drawn, 613 lost in 1760 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 14 won, 16 drawn, 22 lost in 52 matches | 447 won, 424 drawn, 447 lost in 1318 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Parma | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 23 scored, 27 conceded (74) | 699 scored, 699 conceded (2416) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 10 conceded (33) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (778) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 12 conceded (29) | 224 scored, 246 conceded (819) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 42 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 17(league sides: 1,240 times, within 15 minutes 182, by full time 550)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Torino
Since 20 Oct 2024
| Score | Torino | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 18 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost in 26 matches | 753 won, 236 drawn, 124 lost in 1113 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 11 drawn, 29 lost in 43 matches | 124 won, 236 drawn, 753 lost in 1113 matches |
| Level at half-time | 11 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 34 matches | 319 won, 394 drawn, 319 lost in 1032 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 1 won, 7 drawn, 14 lost in 22 matches | 56 won, 121 drawn, 332 lost in 509 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 6 won, 11 drawn, 6 lost in 23 matches | 237 won, 406 drawn, 237 lost in 880 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 3 won, 9 drawn, 15 lost in 27 matches | 34 won, 111 drawn, 370 lost in 515 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 3 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 23 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 7 drawn, 15 lost in 23 matches | 22 won, 94 drawn, 388 lost in 504 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 2 won, 18 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches | 109 won, 486 drawn, 109 lost in 704 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches | 11 won, 84 drawn, 432 lost in 527 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 15 won, 19 drawn, 26 lost in 60 matches | 613 won, 534 drawn, 613 lost in 1760 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 13 won, 15 drawn, 16 lost in 44 matches | 447 won, 424 drawn, 447 lost in 1318 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Torino | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 19 scored, 15 conceded (75) | 699 scored, 699 conceded (2416) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 5 conceded (23) | 229 scored, 229 conceded (778) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 10 scored, 9 conceded (34) | 224 scored, 246 conceded (819) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 51 times, equalised within 15 minutes 9, by full time 23(league sides: 1,240 times, within 15 minutes 182, by full time 550)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Parma | Torino | |
|---|---|---|
| 74Since 27 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 75Since 20 Oct 2024 |
| 68.96 | xG for | 79.29 |
| 65 | Goals scored | 78 |
| 111.24 | xG against | 102.10 |
| 101 | Goals conceded | 106 |
Parma
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Inter | 0.46 | 2.42 | 0–3 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Genoa | 0.53 | 0.70 | 2–1 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | at Como | 1.15 | 2.98 | 1–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Monza | 0.73 | 1.72 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Juventus | 0.25 | 1.58 | 0–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Cagliari | 0.75 | 0.94 | 0–1 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Sassuolo | 1.12 | 0.91 | 1–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Como | 0.43 | 2.77 | 0–1 |
| 10 May 2026 | v AS Roma | 0.73 | 2.62 | 2–3 |
| 3 May 2026 | at Inter | 0.27 | 2.09 | 0–2 |
Torino
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct 2026 | v Udinese | 2.62 | 0.76 | 2–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Bologna | 1.14 | 0.92 | 1–1 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | v AS Roma | 0.86 | 1.85 | 0–2 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | at Fiorentina | 0.58 | 1.67 | 2–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Sassuolo | 1.26 | 1.85 | 1–2 |
| 23 Aug 2026 | v AC Milan | 1.29 | 2.15 | 1–2 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Juventus | 0.85 | 1.92 | 2–2 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Cagliari | 0.99 | 1.32 | 1–2 |
| 8 May 2026 | v Sassuolo | 3.26 | 2.24 | 2–1 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Udinese | 0.83 | 2.00 | 0–2 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Parma | Torino | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 of 6 | Matches with xG | 6 of 6 |
| 4 | Points in those matches | 7 |
| 4.18 | xPts | 7.21 |
| 3.87 | xG for | 7.75 |
| 10.34 | xG against | 9.20 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Parma and Torino
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- P. Almqvist (Calf Injury) · N. Elphege (Illness) · H. Nicolussi Caviglia (Thigh Injury) · L. Valenti (Coach's decision)
- Ruled out
- E. Ilkhan (Muscle Injury) · F. Israel (Shoulder Injury)
- Doubtful
- N. Fortini (Thigh Injury)
Published 19 Oct 2026, 18:42 BST · not changed since
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