Parma v Udinese match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Wed 28 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Parma and Udinese are evenly matched in a low-scoring Serie A clash where the model expects 2.32 goals total, a gap of 0.08 in Udinese's favour. Both teams are struggling: Parma have lost four of five, while Udinese are winless in five matches. Udinese won two of the three most recent head-to-head meetings but will be without five players due to injury.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 33%Parma win
- 30%Draw
- 37%Udinese win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
ParmaLast 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats
UdineseLast 5: no wins, no draws, 5 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Parma won 17 of 25 matches in which they scored first, since 30 Oct 2024.
- Udinese won 23 of 37 matches in which they scored first, since 30 Oct 2024.
- Udinese won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Parma's last 10 home league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
4 meetings: Parma 1, draws 0, Udinese 3
Goals: Parma 3, Udinese 6
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Udinese v Parma | 0–1 |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Parma v Udinese | 0–2 |
| 1 Mar 2025 | Udinese v Parma | 1–0 |
| 16 Sep 2024 | Parma v Udinese | 2–3 |
Home and away
ParmaParma at home
Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost
- LostTorino19 Oct 20260–3
- WonGenoa20 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnMonza6 Sep 20261–1
- LostCremoneseCoppa Italia1 Sep 20260–2
- LostCagliari22 Aug 20260–1
Parma: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 9 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
UdineseUdinese away
Last 5: 2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost
- LostTorino12 Oct 20261–2
- LostInter14 Sep 20263–5
- WonMonza29 Aug 20263–2
- LostNapoli24 May 20260–1
- WonCagliari9 May 20262–0
Udinese: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 19 scored, 16 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 6 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Parma- Last match
- 4 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Lazio · Serie A
- Next match
- 5 days after2 Nov 2026 · v Atalanta · Serie A
Udinese- Last match
- 3 days before25 Oct 2026 · v AC Milan · Serie A
- Next match
- 3 days after31 Oct 2026 · v AS Roma · Serie A
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 30 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Parma
| Score | Parma | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 17 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost in 25 matches | 763 won, 238 drawn, 127 lost in 1128 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 9 drawn, 32 lost in 44 matches | 127 won, 238 drawn, 763 lost in 1128 matches |
| Level at half-time | 10 won, 14 drawn, 18 lost in 42 matches | 323 won, 394 drawn, 323 lost in 1040 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 7 won, 18 drawn, 12 lost in 37 matches | 239 won, 406 drawn, 239 lost in 884 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 2 won, 3 drawn, 15 lost in 20 matches | 35 won, 112 drawn, 374 lost in 521 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 9 won, 19 drawn, 7 lost in 35 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| 1 goal down after 70 minutes | 1 won, 2 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches | 24 won, 96 drawn, 392 lost in 512 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 4 won, 18 drawn, 4 lost in 26 matches | 109 won, 488 drawn, 109 lost in 706 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 4 drawn, 16 lost in 20 matches | 13 won, 85 drawn, 434 lost in 532 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 16 won, 16 drawn, 23 lost in 55 matches | 623 won, 538 drawn, 623 lost in 1784 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 15 won, 15 drawn, 23 lost in 53 matches | 453 won, 424 drawn, 453 lost in 1330 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Parma | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 23 scored, 28 conceded (79) | 714 scored, 714 conceded (2446) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 11 conceded (34) | 231 scored, 231 conceded (780) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 9 scored, 12 conceded (31) | 233 scored, 250 conceded (833) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 16(league sides: 1,261 times, within 15 minutes 187, by full time 561)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Udinese
| Score | Udinese | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 23 won, 6 drawn, 8 lost in 37 matches | 763 won, 238 drawn, 127 lost in 1128 matches |
| Conceded first | 3 won, 6 drawn, 30 lost in 39 matches | 127 won, 238 drawn, 763 lost in 1128 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 12 won, 5 drawn, 6 lost in 23 matches | 337 won, 123 drawn, 57 lost in 517 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 8 drawn, 13 lost in 30 matches | 323 won, 394 drawn, 323 lost in 1040 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 16 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 20 matches | 374 won, 112 drawn, 35 lost in 521 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 4 won, 11 drawn, 10 lost in 25 matches | 239 won, 406 drawn, 239 lost in 884 matches |
| 1 goal down after 60 minutes | 0 won, 1 drawn, 20 lost in 21 matches | 35 won, 112 drawn, 374 lost in 521 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 1 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 22 matches | 179 won, 448 drawn, 179 lost in 806 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 1 won, 14 drawn, 6 lost in 21 matches | 109 won, 488 drawn, 109 lost in 706 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 0 won, 2 drawn, 20 lost in 22 matches | 13 won, 85 drawn, 434 lost in 532 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 20 won, 14 drawn, 27 lost in 61 matches | 623 won, 538 drawn, 623 lost in 1784 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 16 won, 10 drawn, 19 lost in 45 matches | 453 won, 424 drawn, 453 lost in 1330 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Udinese | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 12 scored, 27 conceded (80) | 714 scored, 714 conceded (2446) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 7 scored, 5 conceded (27) | 250 scored, 233 conceded (833) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 3 scored, 12 conceded (22) | 231 scored, 231 conceded (780) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 2 scored, 10 conceded (31) | 233 scored, 250 conceded (833) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 44 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 14(league sides: 1,261 times, within 15 minutes 187, by full time 561)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 19 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 30 Oct 2024
| Parma | Udinese | |
|---|---|---|
| 75 | Matches with xG | 75 |
| 69.70 | xG for | 81.54 |
| 65 | Goals scored | 83 |
| 114.51 | xG against | 110.63 |
| 105 | Goals conceded | 111 |
Parma
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | at Lazio | 0.87 | 1.82 | 1–2 |
| 19 Oct 2026 | v Torino | 1.61 | 1.58 | 0–3 |
| 10 Oct 2026 | at Inter | 0.46 | 2.42 | 0–3 |
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Genoa | 0.53 | 0.70 | 2–1 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | at Como | 1.15 | 2.98 | 1–2 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Monza | 0.73 | 1.72 | 1–1 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Juventus | 0.25 | 1.58 | 0–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Cagliari | 0.75 | 0.94 | 0–1 |
| 24 May 2026 | v Sassuolo | 1.12 | 0.91 | 1–0 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Como | 0.43 | 2.77 | 0–1 |
Udinese
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | v AC Milan | 0.55 | 3.59 | 0–2 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | v Lecce | 0.54 | 3.47 | 0–3 |
| 12 Oct 2026 | at Torino | 0.76 | 2.62 | 1–2 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Cagliari | 2.13 | 1.12 | 0–1 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | at Inter | 0.92 | 3.05 | 3–5 |
| 7 Sep 2026 | v Lazio | 0.85 | 1.83 | 1–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Monza | 0.98 | 1.70 | 3–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Como | 2.14 | 1.50 | 1–1 |
| 24 May 2026 | at Napoli | 0.37 | 1.76 | 0–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | v Cremonese | 0.35 | 0.45 | 0–1 |
This league season
Serie A matches since 22 Aug 2026.
| Parma | Udinese | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 8 of 8 |
| 4 | Points in those matches | 4 |
| 6.34 | xPts | 6.48 |
| 6.35 | xG for | 8.87 |
| 13.74 | xG against | 18.88 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Parma and Udinese
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- N. Elphege (Illness) · L. Valenti (Coach's decision)
- Ruled out
- D. Alaba (Calf Injury) · V. Bayo (Thigh Injury) · I. Gueye (Ankle Injury) · O. Solet (Muscle Injury)
- Doubtful
- A. Zanoli (Muscle Injury)
Published 28 Oct 2026, 16:28 GMT · not changed since
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