PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
The model gives PEC Zwolle a 37% chance of victory and ADO Den Haag 37%, with a 25% draw probability. Expected goals total 3.11, with a gap of 0.03 in Zwolle's favour. Zwolle have won once in five matches; Den Haag have two draws and one win in their last five. Both squads face significant absences.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 37%PEC Zwolle win
- 25%Draw
- 38%ADO Den Haag win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
PEC ZwolleLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
- lost1–2v FC OSS
- drew1–1at Utrecht
- won4–1v GO Ahead Eagles
- lost0–1v Cambuur
- lost0–3at Groningen
ADO Den HaagLast 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat
- drew1–1at Excelsior '31
- lost2–3v Heerenveen
- won2–1v PSV Eindhoven
- drew2–2at Telstar
- drew1–1v Cambuur
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- PEC Zwolle won 17 of 35 matches in which they scored first, since 3 Nov 2024.
- Eredivisie, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 162 of 222.
- ADO Den Haag without a win in their last 5 away games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
2 meetings: PEC Zwolle 0, draws 0, ADO Den Haag 2
Goals: PEC Zwolle 2, ADO Den Haag 5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Feb 2023 | ADO Den Haag v PEC ZwolleEerste Divisie | 3–1 |
| 16 Sep 2022 | PEC Zwolle v ADO Den HaagEerste Divisie | 1–2 |
Home and away
PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle at home
Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost
- LostFC OSSKNVB Beker28 Oct 20261–2
- WonGO Ahead Eagles18 Oct 20264–1
- LostCambuur11 Oct 20260–1
- LostFeyenoord13 Sep 20260–7
- LostNEC Nijmegen29 Aug 20261–3
PEC Zwolle: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 20 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag away
Last 5: 0 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost
- DrawnExcelsior '31KNVB Beker27 Oct 20261–1 PEN
- DrawnTelstar11 Oct 20262–2
- LostTwente12 Sep 20260–2
- DrawnFeyenoord30 Aug 20262–2
- LostGO Ahead Eagles23 Aug 20261–3
ADO Den Haag: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 15 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
PEC Zwolle- Last match
- 4 days before28 Oct 2026 · v FC OSS · KNVB Beker
- Next match
- 5 days after6 Nov 2026 · v Willem II · Eredivisie
ADO Den Haag- Last match
- 5 days before27 Oct 2026 · v Excelsior '31 · KNVB Beker
- Next match
- 6 days after7 Nov 2026 · v Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 3 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
PEC Zwolle
| Score | PEC Zwolle | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 17 won, 12 drawn, 6 lost in 35 matches | 655 won, 229 drawn, 120 lost in 1004 matches |
| Conceded first | 2 won, 7 drawn, 23 lost in 32 matches | 120 won, 229 drawn, 655 lost in 1004 matches |
| Level at half-time | 4 won, 14 drawn, 11 lost in 29 matches | 233 won, 302 drawn, 233 lost in 768 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 2 won, 14 drawn, 9 lost in 25 matches | 170 won, 290 drawn, 170 lost in 630 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 1 won, 13 drawn, 7 lost in 21 matches | 123 won, 324 drawn, 123 lost in 570 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 13 won, 15 drawn, 19 lost in 47 matches | 490 won, 400 drawn, 490 lost in 1380 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 9 won, 13 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches | 342 won, 320 drawn, 342 lost in 1004 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | PEC Zwolle | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 15 scored, 29 conceded (69) | 765 scored, 765 conceded (2090) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 8 scored, 7 conceded (24) | 337 scored, 243 conceded (778) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 3 scored, 12 conceded (21) | 185 scored, 185 conceded (534) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 10 conceded (24) | 243 scored, 337 conceded (778) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 37 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 15(league sides: 1,193 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 550)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 3 Nov 2024
| PEC Zwolle | ADO Den Haag | |
|---|---|---|
| 67 | Matches with xG | — |
| 79.63 | xG for | — |
| 87 | Goals scored | — |
| 118.34 | xG against | — |
| 123 | Goals conceded | — |
PEC Zwolle
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | at Utrecht | 0.95 | 1.66 | 1–1 |
| 18 Oct 2026 | v GO Ahead Eagles | 1.81 | 2.76 | 4–1 |
| 11 Oct 2026 | v Cambuur | 0.98 | 0.82 | 0–1 |
| 18 Sep 2026 | at Groningen | 0.43 | 1.39 | 0–3 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Feyenoord | 0.19 | 3.40 | 0–7 |
| 4 Sep 2026 | at Sparta Rotterdam | 1.07 | 2.23 | 2–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | v NEC Nijmegen | 2.03 | 1.94 | 1–3 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Heerenveen | 1.55 | 0.85 | 2–0 |
| 16 Aug 2026 | at Twente | 0.68 | 2.08 | 1–3 |
| 9 Aug 2026 | v Ajax | 0.59 | 1.54 | 0–2 |
PEC Zwolle: 1 without xG left out
This league season
Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| PEC Zwolle | ADO Den Haag | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 of 10 | Matches with xG | 9 of 10 |
| 8 | Points in those matches | 5 |
| 9.17 | xPts | 7.68 |
| 10.28 | xG for | 9.49 |
| 18.67 | xG against | 18.56 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- S. Floranus (Injury) · F. Krastev (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- Ruled out
- D. Barany (Thigh Injury) · L. Reischl (Groin Injury)
Published 1 Nov 2026, 10:13 GMT · not changed since
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