Championship2–1Finished

Millwall

Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 12:30 BSTMatchday 12 · Fratton Park, Portsmouth

Portsmouth v Millwall match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

34%Portsmouth win
29%Draw
37%Millwall win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Portsmouth

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

Millwall

Last 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

Portsmouth won 28 of 41 matches in which they scored first, since 25 Oct 2024.
Millwall won 39 of 52 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
Millwall won 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Portsmouth 2, draws 0, Millwall 4

Goals: Portsmouth 8, Millwall 8

Date	Match	Score
21 Feb 2026	Millwall v Portsmouth	1–3
22 Nov 2025	Portsmouth v Millwall	3–1
5 Apr 2025	Millwall v Portsmouth	2–1
28 Jan 2025	Portsmouth v Millwall	0–1
13 Aug 2024	Portsmouth v MillwallLeague Cup	0–1
10 Aug 2021	Millwall v PortsmouthLeague Cup	2–1

Home and away

Portsmouth

Portsmouth at home

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

WonSheffield Utd14 Oct 20263–2
DrawnBlackburn19 Sep 20262–2
WonCardiff5 Sep 20262–0
LostDerby1 Sep 20260–2
LostQPR15 Aug 20261–3

Portsmouth: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 14 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 4 of 10
Clean sheets: 3 of 10

Millwall

Millwall away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

WonPreston10 Oct 20261–0
DrawnMiddlesbrough15 Sep 20262–2
LostBlackburn12 Sep 20261–3
LostSouthampton29 Aug 20261–5
WonCambridge UnitedLeague Cup25 Aug 20261–0

Millwall: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 13 scored, 13 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 5 of 10
Clean sheets: 4 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Portsmouth

Last match: 4 days before20 Oct 2026 · v Wolves · Championship
Next match: 7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Burnley · Championship

Millwall

Last match: 7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Lincoln · Championship
Next match: 7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Derby · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Portsmouth

Since 25 Oct 2024

Score	Portsmouth	League sides
Scored first	28 won, 9 drawn, 4 lost in 41 matches	1116 won, 348 drawn, 215 lost in 1679 matches
Conceded first	3 won, 9 drawn, 34 lost in 46 matches	215 won, 348 drawn, 1116 lost in 1679 matches
1 goal up at half-time	14 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches	508 won, 164 drawn, 95 lost in 767 matches
Level at half-time	9 won, 14 drawn, 11 lost in 34 matches	460 won, 578 drawn, 460 lost in 1498 matches
1 goal down at half-time	2 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 22 matches	95 won, 164 drawn, 508 lost in 767 matches
Level after 60 minutes	7 won, 18 drawn, 12 lost in 37 matches	342 won, 582 drawn, 342 lost in 1266 matches
Level after 70 minutes	4 won, 17 drawn, 9 lost in 30 matches	277 won, 630 drawn, 277 lost in 1184 matches
Level after 80 minutes	3 won, 20 drawn, 5 lost in 28 matches	174 won, 702 drawn, 174 lost in 1050 matches
Level after 15 minutes	27 won, 17 drawn, 24 lost in 68 matches	923 won, 738 drawn, 923 lost in 2584 matches
Level after 30 minutes	19 won, 14 drawn, 17 lost in 50 matches	656 won, 630 drawn, 656 lost in 1942 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes	1 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches	107 won, 147 drawn, 437 lost in 691 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
Score	Portsmouth	League sides
All matches	25 scored, 21 conceded (92)	1042 scored, 1042 conceded (3608)
When leading after 75 minutes	6 scored, 3 conceded (28)	347 scored, 375 conceded (1257)
When level after 75 minutes	7 scored, 10 conceded (28)	320 scored, 320 conceded (1094)
When trailing after 75 minutes	12 scored, 8 conceded (36)	375 scored, 347 conceded (1257)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 18(league sides: 1,891 times, within 15 minutes 323, by full time 838)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Millwall

Since 26 Oct 2024

Score	Millwall	League sides
Scored first	39 won, 9 drawn, 4 lost in 52 matches	1116 won, 348 drawn, 215 lost in 1679 matches
Conceded first	4 won, 9 drawn, 24 lost in 37 matches	215 won, 348 drawn, 1116 lost in 1679 matches
1 goal up at half-time	20 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches	508 won, 164 drawn, 95 lost in 767 matches
Level at half-time	17 won, 12 drawn, 13 lost in 42 matches	460 won, 578 drawn, 460 lost in 1498 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes	18 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 23 matches	539 won, 170 drawn, 65 lost in 774 matches
Level after 60 minutes	15 won, 15 drawn, 5 lost in 35 matches	342 won, 582 drawn, 342 lost in 1266 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes	20 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches	565 won, 151 drawn, 45 lost in 761 matches
Level after 70 minutes	11 won, 16 drawn, 3 lost in 30 matches	277 won, 630 drawn, 277 lost in 1184 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes	21 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches	645 won, 119 drawn, 17 lost in 781 matches
Level after 80 minutes	11 won, 16 drawn, 2 lost in 29 matches	174 won, 702 drawn, 174 lost in 1050 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes	0 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches	17 won, 119 drawn, 645 lost in 781 matches
Level after 15 minutes	37 won, 15 drawn, 20 lost in 72 matches	923 won, 738 drawn, 923 lost in 2584 matches
Level after 30 minutes	28 won, 14 drawn, 17 lost in 59 matches	656 won, 630 drawn, 656 lost in 1942 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
Score	Millwall	League sides
All matches	32 scored, 29 conceded (94)	1042 scored, 1042 conceded (3608)
When leading after 75 minutes	12 scored, 8 conceded (37)	347 scored, 375 conceded (1257)
When level after 75 minutes	15 scored, 7 conceded (30)	320 scored, 320 conceded (1094)
When trailing after 75 minutes	5 scored, 14 conceded (27)	375 scored, 347 conceded (1257)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 39 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 15(league sides: 1,891 times, within 15 minutes 323, by full time 838)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Portsmouth		Millwall
92Since 25 Oct 2024	Matches with xG	94Since 26 Oct 2024
110.18	xG for	121.41
110	Goals scored	115
115.53	xG against	116.23
126	Goals conceded	106

Portsmouth

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left

Show the numbers

Portsmouth: Last matches with xG, newest first
Date	Opponent	xG for	xG against	Goals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Oct 2026	at Wolves	0.78	0.95	1–1
17 Oct 2026	at Norwich	1.25	0.37	1–0
14 Oct 2026	v Sheffield Utd	2.01	1.80	3–2
11 Oct 2026	at Southampton	1.18	1.28	0–1
19 Sep 2026	v Blackburn	1.60	0.59	2–2
12 Sep 2026	at Charlton	0.40	0.82	0–0
5 Sep 2026	v Cardiff	2.07	1.37	2–0
1 Sep 2026	v Derby	0.84	0.55	0–2
29 Aug 2026	at Bristol City	1.37	0.61	1–2
22 Aug 2026	at Lincoln	1.21	2.32	3–1

Millwall

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left

Show the numbers

Millwall: Last matches with xG, newest first
Date	Opponent	xG for	xG against	Goals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026	v Lincoln	1.87	0.75	2–2
13 Oct 2026	v Swansea	1.05	1.82	0–1
10 Oct 2026	at Preston	1.09	0.65	1–0
19 Sep 2026	v West Ham	2.68	1.87	2–2
15 Sep 2026	at Middlesbrough	1.69	1.52	2–2
12 Sep 2026	at Blackburn	1.67	1.23	1–3
5 Sep 2026	v Bolton	2.65	0.95	4–0
2 Sep 2026	v Wrexham	0.23	0.88	0–3
29 Aug 2026	at Southampton	1.35	3.62	1–5
22 Aug 2026	v Norwich	2.69	1.02	3–0

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

Portsmouth		Millwall
11 of 11	Matches with xG	11 of 11
15	Points in those matches	15
16.63	xPts	18.27
14.88	xG for	20.37
12.73	xG against	14.83

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Portsmouth and Millwall

Corners won and concededPRO
Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
First-half goals, scored and concededPRO

PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

Portsmouth
Ruled out
K. Anderson (Overload) · B. Arthur (Back Injury) · C. Bishop (Knee Injury) · L. Brooke-Smith (Ankle Injury) · M. Kosznovszky (Knee Injury) · J. Murphy (Groin Injury) · C. Ogilvie (Knee Injury) · C. Shaughnessy (Injury) · J. Swift (Knee Injury) · F. Umeh (Hamstring Injury)
Millwall
Ruled out
J. Coburn (Muscle Injury) · C. De Norre (Muscle Injury) · L. Jensen (Muscle Injury) · M. Luongo (Knee Injury) · F. Marschall (Injury) · M. Servais (Inactive)
Doubtful
T. Arconte (Ankle Injury) · M. Ivanovic (Hamstring Injury)

Published 24 Oct 2026, 11:28 BST · not changed since

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