Portsmouth v Sheffield Utd match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Wed 14 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
The model rates Portsmouth and Sheffield United at 36% and 36% respectively for victory, with a 28% draw probability. Expected goals total 2.63, with Sheffield United marginally ahead at 1.34 to Portsmouth's 1.29.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 36%Portsmouth win
- 28%Draw
- 36%Sheffield Utd win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
PortsmouthLast 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats
Sheffield UtdLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Portsmouth won 26 of 39 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
- Sheffield Utd won 37 of 55 matches in which they scored first, since 18 Oct 2024.
- Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
4 meetings: Portsmouth 0, draws 1, Sheffield Utd 3
Goals: Portsmouth 1, Sheffield Utd 6
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Portsmouth v Sheffield Utd | 0–1 |
| 26 Nov 2025 | Sheffield Utd v Portsmouth | 3–0 |
| 8 Feb 2025 | Sheffield Utd v Portsmouth | 2–1 |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Portsmouth v Sheffield Utd | 0–0 |
Home and away
PortsmouthPortsmouth at home
Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost
- DrawnBlackburn19 Sep 20262–2
- WonCardiff5 Sep 20262–0
- LostDerby1 Sep 20260–2
- LostQPR15 Aug 20261–3
- DrawnBirmingham2 May 20261–1
Portsmouth: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 12 scored, 13 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 4 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Sheffield UtdSheffield Utd away
Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost
- LostStoke City19 Sep 20261–2
- LostFleetwood TownLeague Cup16 Sep 20260–1
- WonBlackburn8 Sep 20262–1
- DrawnCardiff29 Aug 20262–2
- WonBlackburnLeague Cup25 Aug 20262–1
Sheffield Utd: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 13 scored, 10 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 6 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Portsmouth- Last match
- 3 days before11 Oct 2026 · v Southampton · Championship
- Next match
- 3 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Norwich · Championship
Sheffield Utd- Last match
- 4 days before10 Oct 2026 · v Lincoln · Championship
- Next match
- 3 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Bristol City · Championship
When the score changes
Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.
Portsmouth
Since 19 Oct 2024
| Score | Portsmouth | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 26 won, 9 drawn, 4 lost in 39 matches | 1104 won, 345 drawn, 213 lost in 1662 matches |
| Conceded first | 4 won, 8 drawn, 35 lost in 47 matches | 213 won, 345 drawn, 1104 lost in 1662 matches |
| Level at half-time | 9 won, 13 drawn, 11 lost in 33 matches | 455 won, 574 drawn, 455 lost in 1484 matches |
| 1 goal down at half-time | 2 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 22 matches | 94 won, 164 drawn, 502 lost in 760 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 7 won, 17 drawn, 12 lost in 36 matches | 341 won, 578 drawn, 341 lost in 1260 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 3 won, 17 drawn, 9 lost in 29 matches | 275 won, 626 drawn, 275 lost in 1176 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 2 won, 20 drawn, 5 lost in 27 matches | 172 won, 698 drawn, 172 lost in 1042 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 25 won, 16 drawn, 24 lost in 65 matches | 912 won, 732 drawn, 912 lost in 2556 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 18 won, 13 drawn, 17 lost in 48 matches | 648 won, 626 drawn, 648 lost in 1922 matches |
| 1 goal down after 30 minutes | 1 won, 5 drawn, 15 lost in 21 matches | 105 won, 145 drawn, 434 lost in 684 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Portsmouth | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 23 scored, 21 conceded (91) | 1032 scored, 1032 conceded (3572) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 3 conceded (28) | 342 scored, 372 conceded (1243) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 6 scored, 10 conceded (27) | 318 scored, 318 conceded (1086) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 11 scored, 8 conceded (36) | 372 scored, 342 conceded (1243) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 49 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 18(league sides: 1,872 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 831)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
Sheffield Utd
Since 18 Oct 2024
| Score | Sheffield Utd | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| Scored first | 37 won, 7 drawn, 11 lost in 55 matches | 1104 won, 345 drawn, 213 lost in 1662 matches |
| Conceded first | 8 won, 4 drawn, 25 lost in 37 matches | 213 won, 345 drawn, 1104 lost in 1662 matches |
| 1 goal up at half-time | 15 won, 2 drawn, 8 lost in 25 matches | 502 won, 164 drawn, 94 lost in 760 matches |
| Level at half-time | 18 won, 12 drawn, 11 lost in 41 matches | 455 won, 574 drawn, 455 lost in 1484 matches |
| 1 goal up after 60 minutes | 14 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost in 24 matches | 532 won, 169 drawn, 64 lost in 765 matches |
| Level after 60 minutes | 13 won, 9 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches | 341 won, 578 drawn, 341 lost in 1260 matches |
| 1 goal up after 70 minutes | 20 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost in 27 matches | 559 won, 149 drawn, 44 lost in 752 matches |
| Level after 70 minutes | 7 won, 10 drawn, 6 lost in 23 matches | 275 won, 626 drawn, 275 lost in 1176 matches |
| 1 goal up after 80 minutes | 22 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 26 matches | 638 won, 117 drawn, 17 lost in 772 matches |
| Level after 80 minutes | 3 won, 11 drawn, 6 lost in 20 matches | 172 won, 698 drawn, 172 lost in 1042 matches |
| 1 goal down after 80 minutes | 2 won, 0 drawn, 20 lost in 22 matches | 17 won, 117 drawn, 638 lost in 772 matches |
| Level after 15 minutes | 31 won, 12 drawn, 28 lost in 71 matches | 912 won, 732 drawn, 912 lost in 2556 matches |
| Level after 30 minutes | 27 won, 10 drawn, 16 lost in 53 matches | 648 won, 626 drawn, 648 lost in 1922 matches |
Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.
| Score | Sheffield Utd | League sides |
|---|---|---|
| All matches | 21 scored, 27 conceded (95) | 1032 scored, 1032 conceded (3572) |
| When leading after 75 minutes | 12 scored, 13 conceded (46) | 342 scored, 372 conceded (1243) |
| When level after 75 minutes | 4 scored, 9 conceded (21) | 318 scored, 318 conceded (1086) |
| When trailing after 75 minutes | 5 scored, 5 conceded (28) | 372 scored, 342 conceded (1243) |
After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 43 times, equalised within 15 minutes 12, by full time 17(league sides: 1,872 times, within 15 minutes 322, by full time 831)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.
League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Earlier league matches
| Portsmouth | Sheffield Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| 91Since 19 Oct 2024 | Matches with xG | 95Since 18 Oct 2024 |
| 108.25 | xG for | 136.49 |
| 107 | Goals scored | 136 |
| 115.58 | xG against | 113.19 |
| 126 | Goals conceded | 112 |
Portsmouth
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | at Southampton | 1.18 | 1.28 | 0–1 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | v Blackburn | 1.60 | 0.59 | 2–2 |
| 12 Sep 2026 | at Charlton | 0.40 | 0.82 | 0–0 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Cardiff | 2.07 | 1.37 | 2–0 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | v Derby | 0.84 | 0.55 | 0–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Bristol City | 1.37 | 0.61 | 1–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Lincoln | 1.21 | 2.32 | 3–1 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v QPR | 2.17 | 2.07 | 1–3 |
| 2 May 2026 | v Birmingham | 0.74 | 1.67 | 1–1 |
| 25 Apr 2026 | at Stoke City | 1.61 | 1.51 | 3–1 |
Sheffield Utd
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | v Lincoln | 0.68 | 1.39 | 3–0 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | at Stoke City | 0.36 | 0.65 | 1–2 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | v Wolves | 0.63 | 1.57 | 0–1 |
| 8 Sep 2026 | at Blackburn | 0.47 | 1.60 | 2–1 |
| 5 Sep 2026 | v Norwich | 0.79 | 3.04 | 1–3 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | v Bolton | 2.21 | 1.91 | 3–2 |
| 29 Aug 2026 | at Cardiff | 1.28 | 2.24 | 2–2 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | at Swansea | 1.46 | 0.57 | 0–0 |
| 15 Aug 2026 | v Birmingham | 0.29 | 0.77 | 0–0 |
| 2 May 2026 | at Derby | 1.85 | 2.11 | 2–1 |
This league season
Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.
| Portsmouth | Sheffield Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 of 8 | Matches with xG | 9 of 9 |
| 8 | Points in those matches | 12 |
| 11.85 | xPts | 8.62 |
| 10.84 | xG for | 8.17 |
| 9.61 | xG against | 13.74 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
- Ruled out
- L. Brooke-Smith (Ankle Injury) · M. Kosznovszky (Knee Injury) · J. Murphy (Groin Injury) · C. Ogilvie (Knee Injury) · F. Umeh (Hamstring Injury) · T. Waddingham (Ankle Injury)
- Doubtful
- F. Seriki (Knee Injury)
Published 14 Oct 2026, 18:42 BST · not changed since
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