Championship0–1Finished

Millwall

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 BST

Preston v Millwall match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

37%Preston win
30%Draw
33%Millwall win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Preston

Last 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats

Millwall

Last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

Preston won 20 of 42 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
Millwall won 39 of 52 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
Millwall won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Both teams scored in 7 of Preston's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: Preston 0, draws 6, Millwall 4

Goals: Preston 8, Millwall 16

Date	Match	Score
28 Feb 2026	Preston v Millwall	0–2
8 Nov 2025	Millwall v Preston	1–1
18 Feb 2025	Preston v Millwall	1–1
28 Sep 2024	Millwall v Preston	3–1
27 Jan 2024	Millwall v Preston	1–1
21 Oct 2023	Preston v Millwall	1–1
15 Apr 2023	Millwall v Preston	2–0
12 Nov 2022	Preston v Millwall	2–4
15 Apr 2022	Preston v Millwall	1–1
1 Feb 2022	Millwall v Preston	0–0

Home and away

Preston

Preston at home

Last 5: 1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost

LostLincoln12 Sep 20260–1
WonBlackburn5 Sep 20262–1
LostBristol City1 Sep 20261–3
LostEvertonLeague Cup26 Aug 20260–4
LostWolves22 Aug 20261–3

Preston: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 10 scored, 20 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 6 of 10
Clean sheets: 0 of 10

Millwall

Millwall away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

DrawnMiddlesbrough15 Sep 20262–2
LostBlackburn12 Sep 20261–3
LostSouthampton29 Aug 20261–5
WonCambridge UnitedLeague Cup25 Aug 20261–0
WonBristol City15 Aug 20262–0

Millwall: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals: 13 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored: 7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals: 5 of 10
Clean sheets: 3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Preston

Last match: 21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v QPR · Championship
Next match: 3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Birmingham · Championship

Millwall

Last match: 21 days before19 Sep 2026 · v West Ham · Championship
Next match: 3 days after13 Oct 2026 · v Swansea · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Preston

Score	Preston	League sides
Scored first	20 won, 18 drawn, 4 lost in 42 matches	1090 won, 342 drawn, 211 lost in 1643 matches
Conceded first	4 won, 8 drawn, 30 lost in 42 matches	211 won, 342 drawn, 1090 lost in 1643 matches
1 goal up at half-time	13 won, 10 drawn, 4 lost in 27 matches	496 won, 162 drawn, 93 lost in 751 matches
Level at half-time	7 won, 15 drawn, 8 lost in 30 matches	450 won, 572 drawn, 450 lost in 1472 matches
1 goal down at half-time	2 won, 5 drawn, 14 lost in 21 matches	93 won, 162 drawn, 496 lost in 751 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes	13 won, 9 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches	525 won, 167 drawn, 64 lost in 756 matches
Level after 60 minutes	7 won, 18 drawn, 7 lost in 32 matches	336 won, 576 drawn, 336 lost in 1248 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes	0 won, 3 drawn, 17 lost in 20 matches	64 won, 167 drawn, 525 lost in 756 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes	13 won, 11 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches	553 won, 147 drawn, 43 lost in 743 matches
Level after 70 minutes	5 won, 19 drawn, 6 lost in 30 matches	271 won, 624 drawn, 271 lost in 1166 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes	16 won, 8 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches	629 won, 115 drawn, 17 lost in 761 matches
Level after 80 minutes	1 won, 23 drawn, 5 lost in 29 matches	170 won, 696 drawn, 170 lost in 1036 matches
Level after 15 minutes	15 won, 24 drawn, 23 lost in 62 matches	898 won, 730 drawn, 898 lost in 2526 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes	11 won, 11 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches	430 won, 144 drawn, 104 lost in 678 matches
Level after 30 minutes	9 won, 15 drawn, 17 lost in 41 matches	638 won, 622 drawn, 638 lost in 1898 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
Score	Preston	League sides
All matches	22 scored, 34 conceded (91)	1017 scored, 1017 conceded (3534)
When leading after 75 minutes	6 scored, 16 conceded (31)	336 scored, 365 conceded (1227)
When level after 75 minutes	7 scored, 10 conceded (31)	316 scored, 316 conceded (1080)
When trailing after 75 minutes	9 scored, 8 conceded (29)	365 scored, 336 conceded (1227)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 45 times, equalised within 15 minutes 10, by full time 18(league sides: 1,851 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 822)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Millwall

Score	Millwall	League sides
Scored first	39 won, 9 drawn, 4 lost in 52 matches	1090 won, 342 drawn, 211 lost in 1643 matches
Conceded first	4 won, 9 drawn, 23 lost in 36 matches	211 won, 342 drawn, 1090 lost in 1643 matches
1 goal up at half-time	21 won, 4 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches	496 won, 162 drawn, 93 lost in 751 matches
Level at half-time	16 won, 13 drawn, 12 lost in 41 matches	450 won, 572 drawn, 450 lost in 1472 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes	19 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost in 24 matches	525 won, 167 drawn, 64 lost in 756 matches
Level after 60 minutes	14 won, 16 drawn, 4 lost in 34 matches	336 won, 576 drawn, 336 lost in 1248 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes	21 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost in 25 matches	553 won, 147 drawn, 43 lost in 743 matches
Level after 70 minutes	10 won, 17 drawn, 2 lost in 29 matches	271 won, 624 drawn, 271 lost in 1166 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes	21 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 24 matches	629 won, 115 drawn, 17 lost in 761 matches
Level after 80 minutes	11 won, 16 drawn, 1 lost in 28 matches	170 won, 696 drawn, 170 lost in 1036 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes	0 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches	17 won, 115 drawn, 629 lost in 761 matches
Level after 15 minutes	36 won, 16 drawn, 19 lost in 71 matches	898 won, 730 drawn, 898 lost in 2526 matches
Level after 30 minutes	27 won, 15 drawn, 16 lost in 58 matches	638 won, 622 drawn, 638 lost in 1898 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
Score	Millwall	League sides
All matches	31 scored, 29 conceded (93)	1017 scored, 1017 conceded (3534)
When leading after 75 minutes	12 scored, 8 conceded (38)	336 scored, 365 conceded (1227)
When level after 75 minutes	15 scored, 7 conceded (29)	316 scored, 316 conceded (1080)
When trailing after 75 minutes	4 scored, 14 conceded (26)	365 scored, 336 conceded (1227)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 38 times, equalised within 15 minutes 5, by full time 14(league sides: 1,851 times, within 15 minutes 318, by full time 822)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

Preston		Millwall
91	Matches with xG	93
110.11	xG for	120.53
104	Goals scored	114
126.03	xG against	114.32
124	Goals conceded	104

Preston

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left

Show the numbers

Preston: Last matches with xG, newest first
Date	Opponent	xG for	xG against	Goals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026	at QPR	1.50	2.54	2–2
12 Sep 2026	v Lincoln	0.58	0.66	0–1
8 Sep 2026	at Watford	2.44	1.26	1–2
5 Sep 2026	v Blackburn	2.19	1.09	2–1
1 Sep 2026	v Bristol City	1.91	1.78	1–3
29 Aug 2026	at Charlton	1.32	0.74	0–1
22 Aug 2026	v Wolves	0.66	1.54	1–3
15 Aug 2026	at Bolton	1.12	1.10	1–2
2 May 2026	v Southampton	1.91	2.41	1–3
25 Apr 2026	at Sheffield Utd	2.98	3.05	3–2

Millwall

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left

Show the numbers

Millwall: Last matches with xG, newest first
Date	Opponent	xG for	xG against	Goals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026	v West Ham	2.68	1.87	2–2
15 Sep 2026	at Middlesbrough	1.69	1.52	2–2
12 Sep 2026	at Blackburn	1.67	1.23	1–3
5 Sep 2026	v Bolton	2.65	0.95	4–0
2 Sep 2026	v Wrexham	0.23	0.88	0–3
29 Aug 2026	at Southampton	1.35	3.62	1–5
22 Aug 2026	v Norwich	2.69	1.02	3–0
15 Aug 2026	at Bristol City	3.40	0.52	2–0
11 May 2026	v Hull City	0.87	2.12	0–2
8 May 2026	at Hull City	0.61	0.46	0–0

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

Preston		Millwall
8 of 8	Matches with xG	8 of 8
4	Points in those matches	11
11.57	xPts	13.56
11.72	xG for	16.36
10.71	xG against	11.61

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Preston and Millwall

Corners won and concededPRO
Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
First-half goals, scored and concededPRO

PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

PrestonA. McCann (Hamstring Injury) · B. Potts (Ankle Injury) · T. Carroll (Ankle Injury)
MillwallJ. Coburn (Muscle Injury) · T. Crama (Ankle Injury) · C. De Norre (Muscle Injury) · M. Ivanovic (Hamstring Injury) · L. Jensen (Muscle Injury)

Published 10 Oct 2026, 14:03 BST · not changed since

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