Progreso v Defensor Sporting match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 1 Nov 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Progreso hosts Defensor Sporting with the model giving the home side a 39% chance of victory, compared to 31% for the away side and 30% for a draw. Expected goals total 2.33, with a gap of 0.15 in Progreso's favour. Progreso have won three of their last five matches, while Defensor Sporting have won just once in their last five; in head-to-head history, the sides have split recent meetings.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 39%Progreso win
- 30%Draw
- 31%Defensor Sporting win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
See PRO plansFree on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.
Form · newest first
ProgresoLast 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat
- won1–0at Wanderers
- won2–0v Juventud
- drew1–1at Penarol
- lost2–3at Liverpool Montevideo
- won2–1v Racing Montevideo
Defensor SportingLast 5: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats
- drew3–3v Racing Montevideo
- lost0–1at Boston River
- lost2–3v Cerro
- lost2–3at Albion FC
- won1–0v Danubio
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- Defensor Sporting won 2 of the last 4 meetings.
- Defensor Sporting without a win in their last 5 away games.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Defensor Sporting's last 10 away league games.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Defensor Sporting's last 10 away league games.
Last meetings
Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.
4 meetings: Progreso 1, draws 1, Defensor Sporting 2
Goals: Progreso 4, Defensor Sporting 7
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 27 Apr 2026 | Defensor Sporting v Progreso | 1–0 |
| 20 Apr 2025 | Defensor Sporting v Progreso | 1–2 |
| 16 Jun 2024 | Defensor Sporting v Progreso | 1–1 |
| 12 May 2024 | Progreso v Defensor Sporting | 1–4 |
Home and away
ProgresoProgreso at home
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- WonJuventud17 Oct 20262–0
- WonRacing Montevideo26 Sep 20262–1
- LostCerro13 Sep 20261–3
- WonDanubio29 Aug 20261–0
- LostDeportivo Maldonado16 Aug 20260–2
Progreso: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 5 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 5 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting away
Last 5: 0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost
- LostBoston River17 Oct 20260–1
- LostAlbion FC3 Oct 20262–3
- LostClub Nacional20 Sep 20262–3
- DrawnCentral Espanol6 Sep 20261–1
- DrawnCerro Largo22 Aug 20261–1
Defensor Sporting: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 10 scored, 14 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 8 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Progreso- Last match
- 7 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Wanderers · Primera División · Uruguay
- Next match
- 11 days after12 Nov 2026 · v Cerro Largo · Primera División · Uruguay
Defensor Sporting- Last match
- 8 days before24 Oct 2026 · v Racing Montevideo · Primera División · Uruguay
- Next match
- 14 days after15 Nov 2026 · v Penarol · Primera División · Uruguay
Injuries and suspensions
Team news was not available for this match.
Published 1 Nov 2026, 11:58 GMT · not changed since
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