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Eredivisie
PSV Eindhoven
2–0Finished
Heerenveen
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 19:00 BST

PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Fri 9 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 67%PSV Eindhoven win
  • 19%Draw
  • 14%Heerenveen win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven

Last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

HeerenveenHeerenveen

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • PSV Eindhoven won 40 of 49 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • Heerenveen won 20 of 27 matches in which they scored first, since 19 Oct 2024.
  • PSV Eindhoven won 8 of the last 10 meetings.
  • PSV Eindhoven unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 8, draws 1, Heerenveen 1

Goals: PSV Eindhoven 28, Heerenveen 8

DateMatchScore
21 Feb 2026PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen3–1
4 Feb 2026PSV Eindhoven v HeerenveenKNVB Beker4–1
6 Dec 2025Heerenveen v PSV Eindhoven0–2
8 Mar 2025PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen2–1
14 Dec 2024Heerenveen v PSV Eindhoven1–0
25 Apr 2024Heerenveen v PSV Eindhoven0–8
7 Dec 2023PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen2–0
21 May 2023PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen3–3
9 Oct 2022Heerenveen v PSV Eindhoven0–1
20 Feb 2022PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen3–1

Home and away

PSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven at home

Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonSparta Rotterdam13 Sep 20264–1
  • DrawnShakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League10 Sep 20261–1
  • WonGroningen23 Aug 20265–1
  • DrawnFortuna Sittard8 Aug 20262–2
  • WonTwente17 May 20265–1

PSV Eindhoven: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
36 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
9 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
10 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Heerenveen

Heerenveen away

Last 5: 1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost

  • WonSparta Rotterdam19 Sep 20264–0
  • DrawnWillem II30 Aug 20262–2
  • DrawnAjax16 Aug 20262–2
  • LostUtrecht21 May 20262–3
  • LostNAC Breda11 May 20260–2

Heerenveen: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
17 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

PSV Eindhoven
Last match
19 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Twente · Eredivisie
Next match
4 days after13 Oct 2026 · v RB Leipzig · UEFA Champions League
Heerenveen
Last match
20 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie
Next match
7 days after16 Oct 2026 · v Excelsior · Eredivisie

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 19 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

PSV Eindhoven

ScorePSV EindhovenLeague sides
Scored first40 won, 7 drawn, 2 lost in 49 matches638 won, 219 drawn, 116 lost in 973 matches
Conceded first16 won, 6 drawn, 15 lost in 37 matches116 won, 219 drawn, 638 lost in 973 matches
2+ goals up at half-time23 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 23 matches183 won, 14 drawn, 2 lost in 199 matches
1 goal up at half-time19 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost in 22 matches292 won, 101 drawn, 50 lost in 443 matches
Level at half-time9 won, 6 drawn, 5 lost in 20 matches227 won, 290 drawn, 227 lost in 744 matches
2+ goals up after 60 minutes31 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 31 matches279 won, 21 drawn, 1 lost in 301 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes17 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches284 won, 99 drawn, 27 lost in 410 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes31 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 31 matches346 won, 11 drawn, 0 lost in 357 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes17 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost in 20 matches272 won, 93 drawn, 18 lost in 383 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes34 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 35 matches375 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 378 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes18 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches302 won, 90 drawn, 4 lost in 396 matches
1 goal up after 15 minutes18 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost in 21 matches196 won, 62 drawn, 48 lost in 306 matches
Level after 15 minutes28 won, 10 drawn, 12 lost in 50 matches476 won, 390 drawn, 476 lost in 1342 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes16 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost in 21 matches257 won, 95 drawn, 58 lost in 410 matches
Level after 30 minutes18 won, 10 drawn, 9 lost in 37 matches337 won, 310 drawn, 337 lost in 984 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScorePSV EindhovenLeague sides
All matches52 scored, 24 conceded (86)743 scored, 743 conceded (2028)
When leading after 75 minutes32 scored, 15 conceded (53)328 scored, 235 conceded (756)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 20, by full time 34(league sides: 1,154 times, within 15 minutes 193, by full time 528)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Heerenveen

ScoreHeerenveenLeague sides
Scored first20 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost in 27 matches638 won, 219 drawn, 116 lost in 973 matches
Conceded first6 won, 10 drawn, 24 lost in 40 matches116 won, 219 drawn, 638 lost in 973 matches
Level at half-time7 won, 7 drawn, 10 lost in 24 matches227 won, 290 drawn, 227 lost in 744 matches
Level after 15 minutes17 won, 12 drawn, 18 lost in 47 matches476 won, 390 drawn, 476 lost in 1342 matches
Level after 30 minutes12 won, 6 drawn, 11 lost in 29 matches337 won, 310 drawn, 337 lost in 984 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreHeerenveenLeague sides
All matches22 scored, 23 conceded (69)743 scored, 743 conceded (2028)
When leading after 75 minutes9 scored, 7 conceded (27)328 scored, 235 conceded (756)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 9 conceded (27)235 scored, 328 conceded (756)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 46 times, equalised within 15 minutes 11, by full time 23(league sides: 1,154 times, within 15 minutes 193, by full time 528)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 19 Oct 2024

PSV EindhovenHeerenveen
66Matches with xG69
154.65xG for100.28
197Goals scored103
74.13xG against97.86
88Goals conceded109

PSV Eindhoven

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
PSV Eindhoven: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
20 Sep 2026at Twente1.022.402–3
13 Sep 2026v Sparta Rotterdam3.752.294–1
5 Sep 2026at Ajax2.551.993–1
30 Aug 2026at Utrecht3.580.306–1
23 Aug 2026v Groningen4.401.095–1
15 Aug 2026at Excelsior2.240.512–1
8 Aug 2026v Fortuna Sittard2.311.012–2
17 May 2026v Twente2.491.415–1
2 May 2026at Ajax1.800.952–2
23 Apr 2026v PEC Zwolle1.900.816–1

Heerenveen

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Heerenveen: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Sep 2026at Sparta Rotterdam1.800.674–0
13 Sep 2026v Telstar1.540.710–0
6 Sep 2026v AZ Alkmaar1.481.042–3
30 Aug 2026at Willem II1.351.702–2
22 Aug 2026v PEC Zwolle0.851.550–2
16 Aug 2026at Ajax1.362.002–2
9 Aug 2026v Twente0.391.781–0
21 May 2026at Utrecht1.262.082–3
17 May 2026v Ajax1.611.860–0
11 May 2026at NAC Breda1.001.860–2

PSV Eindhoven: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

PSV EindhovenHeerenveen
7 of 7Matches with xG7 of 7
16Points in those matches9
14.67xPts9.27
19.85xG for8.77
9.59xG against9.45

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • PSV EindhovenPSV EindhovenL. Geertruida (Knock) · S. Lammers (Lacking Match Fitness) · A. Nagalo (Injury) · S. Ouaissa (Muscle Injury) · R. Pepi (Injury) · A. Plea (Surgery) · J. Schouten (Knee Injury) · K. Sildillia (Surgery)
  • HeerenveenHeerenveenNo injuries or suspensions reported.

Published 9 Oct 2026, 17:58 BST · not changed since

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