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Eredivisie
PSV Eindhoven
7–0Finished
Willem II
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 17:45 GMTMatchday 11 · Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven v Willem II match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 31 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

The model gives PSV Eindhoven an 88% chance of winning against Willem II. Expected goals stand at 3.58 for PSV and 0.8 for Willem II, a gap of 2.78 in PSV's favour. PSV drew 1-1 with Willem II in their last meeting in February 2025, though PSV's recent record shows one draw and one win in their last five, while Willem II have won just one of their last five matches.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 88%PSV Eindhoven win
  • 8%Draw
  • 4%Willem II win

PRO analysis

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PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

  1. drew1–1v Feyenoord
  2. won1–0at FC Porto
  3. lost1–2at ADO Den Haag
  4. lost0–1at RB Leipzig
  5. won2–0v Heerenveen
Willem IIWillem II

Last 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats

  1. won4–3at Helmond Sport
  2. lost1–6v Cambuur
  3. lost2–3at Sparta Rotterdam
  4. lost1–3at Utrecht
  5. lost0–1v Fortuna Sittard

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • PSV Eindhoven won 40 of 50 matches in which they scored first, since 2 Nov 2024.
  • Eredivisie, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 160 of 219.
  • PSV Eindhoven won 2 of the last 4 meetings.
  • PSV Eindhoven unbeaten in their last 5 home games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

4 meetings: PSV Eindhoven 2, draws 1, Willem II 1

Goals: PSV Eindhoven 8, Willem II 5

DateMatchScore
8 Feb 2025PSV Eindhoven v Willem II1–1
28 Sep 2024Willem II v PSV Eindhoven0–2
1 May 2022PSV Eindhoven v Willem II4–2
25 Sep 2021Willem II v PSV Eindhoven2–1

Home and away

PSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven at home

Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost

  • DrawnFeyenoord25 Oct 20261–1
  • WonHeerenveen9 Oct 20262–0
  • WonSparta Rotterdam13 Sep 20264–1
  • DrawnShakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League10 Sep 20261–1
  • WonGroningen23 Aug 20265–1

PSV Eindhoven: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
33 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
9 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
8 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10
Willem II

Willem II away

Last 5: 1 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost

  • WonHelmond SportKNVB Beker27 Oct 20264–3
  • LostSparta Rotterdam17 Oct 20262–3
  • LostUtrecht11 Oct 20261–3
  • LostAjax15 Sep 20261–5
  • DrawnAZ Alkmaar11 Sep 20261–1

Willem II: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
13 scored, 18 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

PSV Eindhoven
Last match
6 days before25 Oct 2026 · v Feyenoord · Eredivisie
Next match
4 days after4 Nov 2026 · v Club Brugge KV · UEFA Champions League
Willem II
Last match
4 days before27 Oct 2026 · v Helmond Sport · KNVB Beker
Next match
6 days after6 Nov 2026 · v PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 2 Nov 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

PSV Eindhoven

ScorePSV EindhovenLeague sides
Scored first40 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost in 50 matches651 won, 228 drawn, 120 lost in 999 matches
Conceded first16 won, 6 drawn, 16 lost in 38 matches120 won, 228 drawn, 651 lost in 999 matches
2+ goals up at half-time21 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 21 matches186 won, 15 drawn, 2 lost in 203 matches
1 goal up at half-time20 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost in 24 matches298 won, 104 drawn, 53 lost in 455 matches
Level at half-time10 won, 6 drawn, 6 lost in 22 matches232 won, 300 drawn, 232 lost in 764 matches
2+ goals up after 60 minutes29 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 29 matches284 won, 21 drawn, 1 lost in 306 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes19 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost in 23 matches290 won, 103 drawn, 27 lost in 420 matches
2+ goals up after 70 minutes30 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost in 30 matches354 won, 11 drawn, 0 lost in 365 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes18 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost in 21 matches276 won, 96 drawn, 18 lost in 390 matches
Level after 70 minutes6 won, 9 drawn, 5 lost in 20 matches123 won, 324 drawn, 123 lost in 570 matches
2+ goals up after 80 minutes33 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost in 34 matches382 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 385 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes19 won, 3 drawn, 0 lost in 22 matches308 won, 94 drawn, 4 lost in 406 matches
Level after 15 minutes30 won, 10 drawn, 14 lost in 54 matches488 won, 398 drawn, 488 lost in 1374 matches
1 goal up after 30 minutes16 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost in 23 matches265 won, 100 drawn, 62 lost in 427 matches
Level after 30 minutes19 won, 9 drawn, 10 lost in 38 matches341 won, 318 drawn, 341 lost in 1000 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScorePSV EindhovenLeague sides
All matches51 scored, 24 conceded (88)761 scored, 761 conceded (2080)
When leading after 75 minutes31 scored, 14 conceded (53)334 scored, 242 conceded (773)
When trailing after 75 minutes12 scored, 5 conceded (20)242 scored, 334 conceded (773)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 47 times, equalised within 15 minutes 20, by full time 34(league sides: 1,188 times, within 15 minutes 200, by full time 549)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 2 Nov 2024

PSV EindhovenWillem II
67Matches with xG—
155.96xG for—
193Goals scored—
77.86xG against—
90Goals conceded—

PSV Eindhoven

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
PSV Eindhoven: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
25 Oct 2026v Feyenoord1.921.191–1
17 Oct 2026at ADO Den Haag1.071.431–2
9 Oct 2026v Heerenveen2.381.572–0
20 Sep 2026at Twente1.022.402–3
13 Sep 2026v Sparta Rotterdam3.752.294–1
5 Sep 2026at Ajax2.551.993–1
30 Aug 2026at Utrecht3.580.306–1
23 Aug 2026v Groningen4.401.095–1
15 Aug 2026at Excelsior2.240.512–1
8 Aug 2026v Fortuna Sittard2.311.012–2

PSV Eindhoven: 1 without xG left out

This league season

Eredivisie matches since 7 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

PSV EindhovenWillem II
10 of 10Matches with xG10 of 10
20Points in those matches2
19.50xPts8.38
25.22xG for12.44
13.78xG against22.79

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: PSV Eindhoven and Willem II

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
    Ruled out
    A. Nagalo (Injury) · A. Plea (Surgery) · J. Schouten (Knee Injury) · P. Wanner (Foot Injury)
    Doubtful
    S. Lammers (Lacking Match Fitness) · R. Pepi (Injury)
  • Willem IIWillem II
    Ruled out
    J. Hoogma (Knee Injury) · A. Lachkar (Groin Injury) · J. Slory (Red Card)

Published 31 Oct 2026, 16:42 GMT · not changed since

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