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Championship
QPR
5–0Finished
Swansea
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 BSTMatchday 12 · Loftus Road, London

QPR v Swansea match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

QPR and Swansea are closely matched according to the model, which gives each side roughly equal chances of victory in this Championship fixture. Expected goals total 2.53, suggesting a competitive game. Both teams are managing injury concerns, with QPR particularly affected in midfield and defence.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 36%QPR win
  • 29%Draw
  • 35%Swansea win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

QPRQPR

Last 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat

SwanseaSwansea

Last 5: 4 wins, no draws, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • QPR won 25 of 33 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
  • Swansea won 33 of 44 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
  • Swansea won 4 of the last 10 meetings.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of QPR's last 10 home league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

10 meetings: QPR 3, draws 3, Swansea 4

Goals: QPR 7, Swansea 10

DateMatchScore
21 Apr 2026QPR v Swansea1–2
22 Oct 2025Swansea v QPR0–1
21 Apr 2025QPR v Swansea1–2
26 Dec 2024Swansea v QPR3–0
1 Apr 2024Swansea v QPR0–1
19 Sep 2023QPR v Swansea1–1
21 Jan 2023QPR v Swansea1–1
3 Sep 2022Swansea v QPR1–0
7 May 2022Swansea v QPR0–1
25 Jan 2022QPR v Swansea0–0

Home and away

QPR

QPR at home

Last 5: 2 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonDerby14 Oct 20264–1
  • DrawnPreston19 Sep 20262–2
  • LostMiddlesbrough5 Sep 20260–1
  • WonCardiff2 Sep 20262–1
  • DrawnBolton22 Aug 20260–0

QPR: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
19 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
7 of 10
Clean sheets
2 of 10
Swansea

Swansea away

Last 5: 4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost

  • WonMillwall13 Oct 20261–0
  • WonLincoln19 Sep 20262–1
  • LostSouthampton8 Sep 20261–3
  • WonDerby29 Aug 20263–0
  • WonStoke City15 Aug 20262–1

Swansea: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
16 scored, 12 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
6 of 10
Clean sheets
3 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

QPR
Last match
7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Birmingham · Championship
Next match
7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Southampton · Championship
Swansea
Last match
7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v West Ham · Championship
Next match
7 days after31 Oct 2026 · v Blackburn · Championship

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions since 26 Oct 2024. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

QPR

ScoreQPRLeague sides
Scored first25 won, 6 drawn, 2 lost in 33 matches1116 won, 348 drawn, 215 lost in 1679 matches
Conceded first8 won, 6 drawn, 33 lost in 47 matches215 won, 348 drawn, 1116 lost in 1679 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 16 drawn, 8 lost in 35 matches460 won, 578 drawn, 460 lost in 1498 matches
1 goal down at half-time3 won, 3 drawn, 14 lost in 20 matches95 won, 164 drawn, 508 lost in 767 matches
Level after 60 minutes11 won, 17 drawn, 3 lost in 31 matches342 won, 582 drawn, 342 lost in 1266 matches
2+ goals down after 60 minutes0 won, 1 drawn, 19 lost in 20 matches4 won, 12 drawn, 381 lost in 397 matches
Level after 70 minutes9 won, 21 drawn, 3 lost in 33 matches277 won, 630 drawn, 277 lost in 1184 matches
2+ goals down after 70 minutes0 won, 0 drawn, 20 lost in 20 matches1 won, 7 drawn, 443 lost in 451 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 21 drawn, 2 lost in 28 matches174 won, 702 drawn, 174 lost in 1050 matches
Level after 15 minutes23 won, 23 drawn, 20 lost in 66 matches923 won, 738 drawn, 923 lost in 2584 matches
Level after 30 minutes14 won, 19 drawn, 11 lost in 44 matches656 won, 630 drawn, 656 lost in 1942 matches
1 goal down after 30 minutes4 won, 2 drawn, 17 lost in 23 matches107 won, 147 drawn, 437 lost in 691 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreQPRLeague sides
All matches27 scored, 22 conceded (92)1042 scored, 1042 conceded (3608)
When leading after 75 minutes8 scored, 9 conceded (28)347 scored, 375 conceded (1257)
When level after 75 minutes9 scored, 3 conceded (29)320 scored, 320 conceded (1094)
When trailing after 75 minutes10 scored, 10 conceded (35)375 scored, 347 conceded (1257)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 52 times, equalised within 15 minutes 8, by full time 20(league sides: 1,891 times, within 15 minutes 323, by full time 838)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Swansea

ScoreSwanseaLeague sides
Scored first33 won, 5 drawn, 6 lost in 44 matches1116 won, 348 drawn, 215 lost in 1679 matches
Conceded first6 won, 9 drawn, 29 lost in 44 matches215 won, 348 drawn, 1116 lost in 1679 matches
Level at half-time18 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 38 matches460 won, 578 drawn, 460 lost in 1498 matches
1 goal down at half-time3 won, 5 drawn, 13 lost in 21 matches95 won, 164 drawn, 508 lost in 767 matches
1 goal up after 60 minutes18 won, 5 drawn, 1 lost in 24 matches539 won, 170 drawn, 65 lost in 774 matches
Level after 60 minutes10 won, 7 drawn, 11 lost in 28 matches342 won, 582 drawn, 342 lost in 1266 matches
1 goal down after 60 minutes1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches65 won, 170 drawn, 539 lost in 774 matches
1 goal up after 70 minutes21 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost in 26 matches565 won, 151 drawn, 45 lost in 761 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 10 drawn, 10 lost in 27 matches277 won, 630 drawn, 277 lost in 1184 matches
1 goal up after 80 minutes23 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost in 25 matches645 won, 119 drawn, 17 lost in 781 matches
Level after 80 minutes4 won, 12 drawn, 6 lost in 22 matches174 won, 702 drawn, 174 lost in 1050 matches
1 goal down after 80 minutes0 won, 4 drawn, 17 lost in 21 matches17 won, 119 drawn, 645 lost in 781 matches
Level after 15 minutes27 won, 15 drawn, 25 lost in 67 matches923 won, 738 drawn, 923 lost in 2584 matches
Level after 30 minutes20 won, 11 drawn, 19 lost in 50 matches656 won, 630 drawn, 656 lost in 1942 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreSwanseaLeague sides
All matches25 scored, 28 conceded (92)1042 scored, 1042 conceded (3608)
When leading after 75 minutes10 scored, 6 conceded (36)347 scored, 375 conceded (1257)
When level after 75 minutes7 scored, 11 conceded (25)320 scored, 320 conceded (1094)
When trailing after 75 minutes8 scored, 11 conceded (31)375 scored, 347 conceded (1257)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 48 times, equalised within 15 minutes 7, by full time 22(league sides: 1,891 times, within 15 minutes 323, by full time 838)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 4 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 26 Oct 2024

QPRSwansea
92Matches with xG92
106.42xG for115.09
118Goals scored116
111.32xG against112.58
129Goals conceded116

QPR

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
QPR: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026at Birmingham1.171.340–3
14 Oct 2026v Derby2.051.024–1
9 Oct 2026at West Ham1.271.441–1
19 Sep 2026v Preston2.541.502–2
12 Sep 2026at West Brom0.621.221–1
9 Sep 2026at Charlton1.100.480–0
5 Sep 2026v Middlesbrough1.032.530–1
2 Sep 2026v Cardiff2.090.602–1
29 Aug 2026at Blackburn1.340.922–1
22 Aug 2026v Bolton1.820.190–0

Swansea

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Swansea: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026v West Ham1.081.210–1
13 Oct 2026at Millwall1.821.051–0
10 Oct 2026v Norwich2.360.682–1
19 Sep 2026at Lincoln0.922.112–1
12 Sep 2026v Burnley2.631.733–1
8 Sep 2026at Southampton1.221.441–3
5 Sep 2026v Wrexham0.740.670–0
1 Sep 2026v Watford2.710.882–0
29 Aug 2026at Derby3.000.703–0
22 Aug 2026v Sheffield Utd0.571.460–0

This league season

Championship matches since 14 Aug 2026. Play-off rounds count here as league matches.

QPRSwansea
11 of 11Matches with xG11 of 11
17Points in those matches23
17.72xPts17.70
17.10xG for17.67
13.41xG against12.58

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: QPR and Swansea

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • QPRQPR
    Ruled out
    R. Burrell (Inactive) · I. Chair (Muscle Injury) · T. Lamptey (Inactive) · N. Madsen (Injury) · A. S. Mbengue (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    K. Dembele (Lacking Match Fitness)
  • SwanseaSwansea
    Ruled out
    C. Burgess (Achilles Tendon Injury) · J. Key (Muscle Injury) · Ronald (Hamstring Injury)

Published 24 Oct 2026, 13:58 BST · not changed since

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