Racing Santander v Valencia match analysis
This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sun 11 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.
Pre-match analysis · as published
Written before kick-off
Racing Santander are favoured to win at home with a 50% model probability, while Valencia face a tough trip weakened by six injuries. The model expects around 3 goals and projects Santander to dominate the expected goals battle.
How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off
- 50%Racing Santander win
- 25%Draw
- 25%Valencia win
PRO analysis
The full analysis is part of PRO
PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.
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Form · newest first
Racing SantanderLast 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats
ValenciaLast 5: 1 win, no draws, 4 defeats
Head-to-head
Head-to-head data was not available for this match.
Past results
From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.
Trends
- La Liga, since 11 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 248 of 312.
- Racing Santander unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
- Over 2.5 goals in 10 of Racing Santander's last 10 home league games.
- Under 2.5 goals in 7 of Valencia's last 10 away league games.
Home and away
Racing SantanderRacing Santander at home
Last 5: 4 won, 1 drawn, 0 lost
- WonAlaves12 Sep 20262–1
- WonElche28 Aug 20263–2
- DrawnVillarreal16 Aug 20262–2
- WonCadizSegunda División31 May 20264–1
- WonValladolidSegunda División16 May 20264–1
Racing Santander: home league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 31 scored, 18 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 9 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 10 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 10
ValenciaValencia away
Last 5: 3 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost
- WonAlaves15 Sep 20261–0
- LostSevilla11 Sep 20260–1
- LostDeportivo La Coruna30 Aug 20261–3
- WonReal Sociedad17 May 20264–3
- WonAthletic Club10 May 20261–0
Valencia: away league games
Last 10 league games, 90-minute score
- Goals
- 11 scored, 12 conceded in 10
- Both teams scored
- 4 of 10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 3 of 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
Rest and schedule
Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.
Racing Santander- Last match
- 22 days before19 Sep 2026 · v Celta Vigo · La Liga
- Next match
- 7 days after18 Oct 2026 · v Osasuna · La Liga
Valencia- Last match
- 21 days before20 Sep 2026 · v Real Sociedad · La Liga
- Next match
- 6 days after17 Oct 2026 · v Athletic Club · La Liga
xG and expected points
Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.
Since 21 Oct 2024
| Racing Santander | Valencia | |
|---|---|---|
| — | Matches with xG | 74 |
| — | xG for | 92.83 |
| — | Goals scored | 89 |
| — | xG against | 95.59 |
| — | Goals conceded | 109 |
Valencia
Show the numbers
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Goals (tick; no tick = 0) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | v Real Sociedad | 1.55 | 2.65 | 2–3 |
| 15 Sep 2026 | at Alaves | 0.65 | 1.05 | 1–0 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | at Sevilla | 0.10 | 0.93 | 0–1 |
| 6 Sep 2026 | v Barcelona | 0.66 | 4.08 | 0–5 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | at Deportivo La Coruna | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1–3 |
| 25 Aug 2026 | v Real Betis | 1.12 | 0.71 | 0–1 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | v Celta Vigo | 0.58 | 0.66 | 0–0 |
| 23 May 2026 | v Barcelona | 1.48 | 1.52 | 3–1 |
| 17 May 2026 | at Real Sociedad | 1.67 | 1.15 | 4–3 |
| 14 May 2026 | v Rayo Vallecano | 0.76 | 1.16 | 1–1 |
This league season
La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.
| Racing Santander | Valencia | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 of 7 | Matches with xG | 7 of 7 |
| 7 | Points in those matches | 4 |
| 8.10 | xPts | 6.70 |
| 10.12 | xG for | 6.06 |
| 15.41 | xG against | 11.50 |
Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.
xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.
PRO depth
PRO depth: Racing Santander and Valencia
- Corners won and concededPRO
- Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
- Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
- First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
Injuries and suspensions
Published 11 Oct 2026, 19:12 BST · not changed since
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