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La Liga
Rayo Vallecano
0–3Finished
Elche
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 13:00 BSTMatchday 10 · Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid

Rayo Vallecano v Elche match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

Rayo Vallecano are given a 48% chance of victory at home, with Elche at 25% and a draw at 27%. Rayo have recent wins but face injury problems; Elche arrive without defender Aguado and in inconsistent form. The model expects 2.61 goals.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 48%Rayo Vallecano win
  • 27%Draw
  • 25%Elche win

PRO analysis

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Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano

Last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat

ElcheElche

Last 5: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Rayo Vallecano won 20 of 37 matches in which they scored first, since 26 Oct 2024.
  • Elche avoided defeat in 9 of 27 matches in which their opponent scored first, since 18 Aug 2025.
  • Rayo Vallecano unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
  • Both teams scored in 8 of Elche's last 10 away league games.

Last meetings

Meetings in the competitions Ledger covers.

6 meetings: Rayo Vallecano 3, draws 0, Elche 3

Goals: Rayo Vallecano 6, Elche 12

DateMatchScore
3 Apr 2026Rayo Vallecano v Elche1–0
21 Dec 2025Elche v Rayo Vallecano4–0
29 Apr 2023Elche v Rayo Vallecano4–0
3 Oct 2022Rayo Vallecano v Elche2–1
18 Feb 2022Elche v Rayo Vallecano2–1
17 Oct 2021Rayo Vallecano v Elche2–1

Home and away

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano at home

Last 5: 3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonEspanyol15 Sep 20262–1
  • WonRacing Santander5 Sep 20263–2
  • DrawnAlaves20 Aug 20261–1
  • WonVillarreal17 May 20262–0
  • DrawnGirona11 May 20261–1

Rayo Vallecano: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
18 scored, 9 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
6 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 10
Clean sheets
4 of 10
Elche

Elche away

Last 5: 1 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost

  • DrawnVillarreal17 Oct 20260–0
  • WonEspanyol18 Sep 20263–1
  • DrawnAthletic Club12 Sep 20261–1
  • LostRacing Santander28 Aug 20262–3
  • DrawnDeportivo La Coruna17 Aug 20261–1

Elche: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
12 scored, 14 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
8 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

Rayo Vallecano
Last match
5 days before19 Oct 2026 · v Getafe · La Liga
Next match
3 days after27 Oct 2026 · v Recreativo Huelva · Copa del Rey
Elche
Last match
7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v Villarreal · La Liga
Next match
3 days after27 Oct 2026 · v Pinatar · Copa del Rey

When the score changes

Each team's results from a given score, in its covered competitions. Every figure shows how many matches it covers.

Rayo Vallecano

Since 26 Oct 2024

ScoreRayo VallecanoLeague sides
Scored first20 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 37 matches764 won, 248 drawn, 143 lost in 1155 matches
Conceded first4 won, 9 drawn, 20 lost in 33 matches143 won, 248 drawn, 764 lost in 1155 matches
Level at half-time11 won, 13 drawn, 4 lost in 28 matches344 won, 376 drawn, 344 lost in 1064 matches
1 goal down at half-time1 won, 6 drawn, 13 lost in 20 matches60 won, 127 drawn, 328 lost in 515 matches
Level after 60 minutes9 won, 16 drawn, 8 lost in 33 matches264 won, 384 drawn, 264 lost in 912 matches
Level after 70 minutes7 won, 20 drawn, 7 lost in 34 matches206 won, 422 drawn, 206 lost in 834 matches
Level after 80 minutes5 won, 21 drawn, 5 lost in 31 matches152 won, 454 drawn, 152 lost in 758 matches
Level after 15 minutes14 won, 23 drawn, 13 lost in 50 matches643 won, 490 drawn, 643 lost in 1776 matches
Level after 30 minutes15 won, 17 drawn, 7 lost in 39 matches474 won, 426 drawn, 474 lost in 1374 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreRayo VallecanoLeague sides
All matches15 scored, 23 conceded (74)796 scored, 796 conceded (2460)
When leading after 75 minutes1 scored, 4 conceded (21)284 scored, 278 conceded (834)
When level after 75 minutes8 scored, 11 conceded (33)234 scored, 234 conceded (792)
When trailing after 75 minutes6 scored, 8 conceded (20)278 scored, 284 conceded (834)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 36 times, equalised within 15 minutes 6, by full time 19(league sides: 1,296 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 605)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

Elche

Since 18 Aug 2025

ScoreElcheLeague sides
Conceded first2 won, 7 drawn, 18 lost in 27 matches143 won, 248 drawn, 764 lost in 1155 matches
Level at half-time5 won, 11 drawn, 7 lost in 23 matches344 won, 376 drawn, 344 lost in 1064 matches
Level after 15 minutes7 won, 14 drawn, 9 lost in 30 matches643 won, 490 drawn, 643 lost in 1776 matches
Level after 30 minutes6 won, 11 drawn, 9 lost in 26 matches474 won, 426 drawn, 474 lost in 1374 matches

Won-drawn-lost (matches), on the 90-minute score.

Goals after 75 minutes
ScoreElcheLeague sides
All matches15 scored, 22 conceded (47)796 scored, 796 conceded (2460)

After going a goal down before the 76th minute: 30 times, equalised within 15 minutes 4, by full time 17(league sides: 1,296 times, within 15 minutes 212, by full time 605)Stoppage time counts as no extra minutes.

League sides: every team in this league since 11 Aug 2023, both venues, each match counted once for each side. Shown for context, not as a comparison.

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Earlier league matches

Rayo VallecanoElche
74Since 26 Oct 2024Matches with xG47Since 18 Aug 2025
99.61xG for51.99
83Goals scored60
99.09xG against79.69
96Goals conceded74

Rayo Vallecano

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Rayo Vallecano: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
19 Oct 2026at Getafe2.260.611–1
19 Sep 2026at Osasuna1.010.531–1
15 Sep 2026v Espanyol1.521.492–1
12 Sep 2026at Real Madrid1.212.621–4
5 Sep 2026v Racing Santander1.610.483–2
31 Aug 2026at Barcelona1.213.042–5
20 Aug 2026v Alaves0.422.001–1
15 Aug 2026at Sevilla1.892.191–2
23 May 2026at Alaves1.341.632–1
17 May 2026v Villarreal1.490.972–0

Elche

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
Elche: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026at Villarreal0.312.230–0
11 Oct 2026v Celta Vigo0.780.470–0
18 Sep 2026at Espanyol1.611.053–1
15 Sep 2026v Real Madrid0.783.612–3
12 Sep 2026at Athletic Club0.842.391–1
7 Sep 2026v Real Sociedad2.470.582–3
28 Aug 2026at Racing Santander1.031.722–3
23 Aug 2026v Barcelona0.704.380–5
17 Aug 2026at Deportivo La Coruna1.230.341–1
23 May 2026at Girona0.180.581–1

This league season

La Liga matches since 15 Aug 2026.

Rayo VallecanoElche
8 of 8Matches with xG9 of 9
9Points in those matches7
10.50xPts9.95
11.13xG for9.75
12.96xG against16.77

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: Rayo Vallecano and Elche

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
    Ruled out
    A. Batalla (Broken calfbone) · P. Ciss (Yellow Cards) · Luiz Felipe (Knee Injury)
    Doubtful
    R. Nteka (Back Injury) · A. Ratiu (Muscle Injury)
  • ElcheElche
    Ruled out
    M. Aguado (Ankle Injury)

Published 24 Oct 2026, 11:58 BST · not changed since

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