LEDGER
Sign inGo PRO
Bundesliga
RB Leipzig
4–0Finished
SV Elversberg
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:30 BSTMatchday 7 · Leipzig Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

RB Leipzig v SV Elversberg match analysis

This analysis was locked at kick-off on Sat 24 Oct 2026 and has not been changed since.

Pre-match analysis · as published

Written before kick-off

RB Leipzig are favoured to beat SV Elversberg with a 61% chance of victory, though a draw (21%) remains possible. The model expects Leipzig to create significantly more chances, with an expected goals total of 3.44.

How the match could end · our estimate before kick-off

  • 61%RB Leipzig win
  • 21%Draw
  • 18%SV Elversberg win

PRO analysis

The full analysis is part of PRO

PRO members can read the full analysis exactly as it was published: the evidence and the risks behind our estimate.

See PRO plans

Free on every match: kick-off time, our estimate of each result, form, past meetings and whether we found a signal.

Form · newest first

RB LeipzigRB Leipzig

Last 5: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats

SV ElversbergSV Elversberg

Last 5: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats

Head-to-head

Head-to-head data was not available for this match.

Past results

From stored results before kick-off. Each figure shows how many games it covers.

Trends

  • Bundesliga, since 18 Aug 2023: home sides leading by one goal after 70 minutes won 148 of 197.
  • RB Leipzig unbeaten in their last 5 home games.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 9 of RB Leipzig's last 10 home league games.
  • Both teams scored in 7 of SV Elversberg's last 10 away league games.

Home and away

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig at home

Last 5: 5 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost

  • WonPSV EindhovenUEFA Champions League13 Oct 20261–0
  • WonEintracht Frankfurt10 Oct 20266–0
  • WonHamburger SV13 Sep 20265–0
  • WonBorussia Mönchengladbach29 Aug 20263–0
  • WonFC St. Pauli9 May 20262–1

RB Leipzig: home league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
31 scored, 7 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
5 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
9 of 10
Clean sheets
5 of 10
SV Elversberg

SV Elversberg away

Last 5: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost

  • LostUnion Berlin10 Oct 20260–1
  • DrawnFC Schalke 0420 Sep 20260–0
  • WonBorussia Mönchengladbach5 Sep 20264–3
  • WonMSV DuisburgDFB Pokal22 Aug 20263–1
  • LostFortuna Düsseldorf2. Bundesliga10 May 20261–3

SV Elversberg: away league games

Last 10 league games, 90-minute score

Goals
15 scored, 16 conceded in 10
Both teams scored
7 of 10
Over 2.5 goals
5 of 10
Clean sheets
1 of 10

Rest and schedule

Days since each team's last match and until its next one, in the competitions Ledger tracks. Friendlies are left out.

RB Leipzig
Last match
3 days before21 Oct 2026 · v Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League
Next match
3 days after27 Oct 2026 · v Rot-Weiß Essen · DFB Pokal
SV Elversberg
Last match
7 days before17 Oct 2026 · v FC Augsburg · Bundesliga
Next match
3 days after27 Oct 2026 · v SV Darmstadt 98 · DFB Pokal

xG and expected points

Each team's xG and points from its own earlier league matches, before this kick-off. Facts about past matches, not a forecast for this one.

Since 26 Oct 2024

RB LeipzigSV Elversberg
67Matches with xG—
116.48xG for—
124Goals scored—
108.37xG against—
104Goals conceded—

RB Leipzig

xG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)Last matches with xG, oldest on the left
Show the numbers
RB Leipzig: Last matches with xG, newest first
DateOpponentxG forxG againstGoals (tick; no tick = 0)
17 Oct 2026at Bayern München0.903.481–6
10 Oct 2026v Eintracht Frankfurt4.031.466–0
20 Sep 2026at Bayer Leverkusen0.972.270–2
13 Sep 2026v Hamburger SV2.431.105–0
5 Sep 2026at Werder Bremen1.500.951–3
29 Aug 2026v Borussia Mönchengladbach3.961.093–0
16 May 2026at SC Freiburg1.241.411–4
9 May 2026v FC St. Pauli1.370.792–1
2 May 2026at Bayer Leverkusen1.174.421–4
24 Apr 2026v Union Berlin4.490.193–1

This league season

Bundesliga matches since 28 Aug 2026.

RB LeipzigSV Elversberg
6 of 6Matches with xG6 of 6
9Points in those matches10
10.05xPts6.22
13.79xG for9.46
10.35xG against12.72

Each figure is a total over the matches shown beside it.

xG: API-Football. xPts: Ledger, from xG with a Poisson model that treats the two teams' goals as independent. That model slightly under-counts draws, so xPts totals come out a little high.

PRO depth

PRO depth: RB Leipzig and SV Elversberg

  • Corners won and concededPRO
  • Shots and shots on target, for and againstPRO
  • Yellow cards, own and opponent'sPRO
  • First-half goals, scored and concededPRO
PRO: these figures for both teams

Injuries and suspensions

  • RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
    Ruled out
    M. Guiu (Hamstring Injury) · A. Ouedraogo (Shoulder Injury)
  • SV ElversbergSV Elversberg
    Ruled out
    L. Seifert (Ankle Injury) · T. Zimmerschied (Ankle Injury)
    Doubtful
    N. Darvich (Injury) · F. Onyeka (Foot Injury)

Published 24 Oct 2026, 13:27 BST · not changed since

All fixtures